Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Jameis Winston: MATTERS, AND CLEVELAND FEELS LIKE THEY’VE HAD THEIR RESTRICTOR PLATE REMOVED
The fans will be as exasperated today as they were when Kevin Stefanski refused to bench him, but financial considerations gave Deshaun Watson his extra-long leash; the abridged version is that the Browns really, really needed it to work out with Watson for the team’s long-term health. That’s why, at the risk of this becoming too macabre, Watson’s season-ending injury was necessary to force what everyone knew needed to be. Now, at the expense of a real-life human being, provocative as he is, the Browns are in their best-case scenario for 2024.
Jameis Winston logged 27/41 for 334 yards and three scores on his first try in Cleveland. This wasn’t only the Browns’ first 300-yard game by a QB, it was their first 200-yard game. Watson also produced only one two-TD game through seven weeks and was sacked almost five times per game, leading the league with 33; Winston took just two sacks on Sunday. He also beat the first-place team in the division – the fan base’s most bitter enemy – with a clutch late drive and restored hope to a city in a familiar way (Joe Flacco took over and led the team to the playoffs a year ago).
Switching from Watson to Winston was like changing a damaged sparkplug. The machine ran more smoothly on Sunday, with Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku cooking up improved fantasy production. Going forward, there’s no need to look at the abysmal Dorian Thompson-Robinson anymore. The Browns will probably see it through with Winston and look much better in fantasy for it.
The Return of the Rams’ Health: MATTERS
It became abundantly clear on Thursday how meaningful the Rams’ dynamic duo at WR is to them. They took on one of the NFL’s best teams through the first third of the season and managed a massive win. More importantly, they looked highly functional, and Stafford’s miserable drought of TD luck was stricken with a wrecking ball. Stafford easily chucked four TDs against the most vaunted defense in football, and he made plenty of those savvy warrior QB plays that few seem capable of producing. There shall be no talk of that for a while.
The Rams are getting healthy elsewhere, too. Their line looks more functional, and their defense had one of its best games. Now 3-4 in a jumbled NFC West, the Rams will no doubt try to win the division rather than sell their assets.
Anthony Richardson’s Ability as a Thrower: MATTERS, ESPECIALLY IN DYNASTY LEAGUES
With concerns about accuracy brushed aside due to his incredible size, speed, and natural athleticism, the draftniks wrote that Anthony Richardson was a modern-day Cam Newton. It seems that the draftniks spelled Tim Tebow wrong.
Richardson is inaccurate. He’s indecisive. He processes plays too slowly, then throws into coverage regardless. He’s oft-injured, and he either lacks fitness or heart, so he waved to the sideline and took himself out of a game like an RB in the third quarter of a close divisional game. Tebow would NEVER, by the way.
Sadly, he’s not even that functional in fantasy, something I would have never imagined; the Konami Code isn’t supposed to be this way. Not only is Richardson stalling out drives, turning the ball over, and killing every fantasy asset in his passing game (save for a long explosive here and there) but he is also not running as much as we would have liked.
The Colts should still see it through this year. There is no future with Flacco – no imminent Super Bowl contention they are bypassing by fooling around with A-Rich. And so, they will probably proceed to keep it up with the kid. However, hope should be fleeting for those who still have any, and Richardson’s dynasty stock has been an avalanche, still settling. The Colts’ upcoming schedule does him no favors as the Vikings, Bills, Jets, and Lions loom.
Saquon Barkley’s Lack of High-Value Touches Against Cincinnati: DOESN’T MATTER
The most pressing concern for those who avoided Saquon Barkley in drafts this summer was that he was going to the Eagles to play with Jalen Hurts. Fantasy managers saw him getting no goal-line work and falling off in the passing game. It has taken eight weeks, but we finally got to see what all the fuss was about.
Jalen Hurts ran for three rushing scores. Despite seeming slightly less effective than it used to be, the Eagles are committed to the tush push at the goal line, running three and converting two against the Bengals. On the second, fans were treated to the Swift Special, which is when an Eagles’ RB runs for 17 yards and gets tackled at the one-yard line, only to be forced to help someone else steal his glory by pushing his sweaty butt. Barkley got shut out in the TD column and only got one reception for three yards. Is it jover?
This summer, people overlooked that Barkley played for the Giants a year ago, and the drives would stall out before he even got to the goal line; in fact, D’Andre Swift had 28 green zone touches (inside the 10), seventh-most in the league in 2023, and Barkley had 17, which was 26th. Simply by crossing the Delaware, Barkley all but guaranteed more looks in the green zone.
Entering the game, Barkley ranked ninth in the league in green zone touches and 12th in RB receptions. He had two carries in the green zone Sunday, superseding the first of Hurts’ tush push TDs. His one reception game was the first of the season. We would like him to be used more in this way. But Barkley came into the game seventh in EP/G, fourth in FPOE per game, 10th in opportunities, third in rushing, and fifth in TDs. He went 22-108-0 on Sunday. In today’s RB landscape, that’s about as good as it gets.
Barkley has plus matchups every single week from here through Week 17.
Your Lions Player Didn’t Get Any Yardage, and That: DOESN’T MATTER
In one of the stranger anomalies of the year, the Lions won their game 52-14 despite only amassing 225 net yards of total team offense.
Yep. You read that right.
Kalif Raymond had 190 punt return yards and a score, 18 yards short of an NFL record for punt return yards in a game. Khalil Dorsey had a 72-yard kick return. The Lions had four turnovers and a turnover on downs. The average Detroit drive started at their own 43, including five drives at or inside the Tennessee 26-yard line. Add 60 yards of penalties against Tennessee, and you get some pretty weird stats.
Jared Goff had 85 yards and three TDs. The Lions’ top receiver, Sam LaPorta, had 6-48-1. Amon-Ra St. Brown had two receptions for seven yards and a score. David Montgomery had nine carries; Jahmyr Gibbs had 11 (including a 70-yard scamper down the left side for a TD). Also, if you’re keeping score, that’s special teams 260 yards, offense 225.
Something tells me this won’t happen often.
DeAndre Hopkins Leaving Tennessee: SEEMS TO MATTER TO CALVIN RIDLEY
In the kooky Lions vs. Titans game, the other side of the aisle had its own version of an anomaly when Calvin Ridley caught 10 receptions for 143 yards from substitute QB Mason Rudolph. This represents 45% of his reception total and 44% of his yardage for the year. His 14 targets were easily a season-high, and he had a 38.9% market share.
Though it makes more sense for the team’s long-term health to return to Will Levis at some point, we don’t know when or if that will be; in the meantime, fantasy managers must be on notice. Rudolph seems laser-focused on Ridley on every play. Even if Levis returns to the lineup, Ridley stands so far out among the other weapons in the Tennessee passing game that he begs for this percentage.
To make matters better for Ridley’s managers, he has an incredible upcoming schedule.
Washington’s 22nd-Ranked Defense in EPA per Play: DOESN’T MATTER, AND IT’S TIME TO VIEW THEM DIFFERENTLY
As a community, we tend to lock in on something that happened early in the season and react slowly to new information that refutes it. The Commanders started the season badly on defense — really badly. After three weeks, they had surrendered 0.305 EPA allowed per play, the worst in the league by a wide margin. For added context, the Rams were second-worst at that point with 0.220 EPA per play allowed, and Cincinnati was third-worst, surrendering 0.136.
By now, Washington is up to 22nd in the NFL at 0.041. Since Week 5? They are fourth – fourth – in the entire NFL in EPA per play allowed. And the pass defense, which was particularly maligned early in the season? They are third.
Stop thinking of Washington as a team to target for fantasy.
Christian Kirk’s Season-Ending Injury: PROBABLY MATTERS TO EVAN ENGRAM
Since 2022, in games where Christian Kirk was out and Evan Engram played, Engram has had increases of 60.0% in targets, 62.1% in receptions, 50.9% in receiving yards, 275% in TDs, and 74.9% in PPR. It’s a small sample size, but it makes some anecdotal sense because they win in similar parts of the field.
Brian Thomas Jr., was also hurt; an MRI of his ribs is forthcoming to determine the severity of the injury (*Editor’s note: It has now been announced that Thomas Jr. is likely to be out for two to four weeks). Thomas and Kirk don’t necessarily win in the same areas, but he is a significant target earner. And Gabe Davis has a shoulder injury. Vacating Kirk and possibly Thomas and Davis from the lineup would increase market shares incrementally all around.
Evan Engram came into Sunday’s game as the NFL leader among TEs in market share; if it is potentially on the rise, Engram draws ever nearer to the top of the charts at TE.
Garrett Wilson’s Usage over Davante Adams: SEEMS LIKE IT MATTERS
It’s only been two weeks; we can’t write anything in stone. It is encouraging to see Garrett Wilson have more targets, receptions, and receiving yards than Davante Adams through two games.
Adams has played in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense; though he is not the play-caller anymore, he was, and the scheme and language are all likely incredibly familiar. Additionally, Adams has a long-standing relationship with Aaron Rodgers, and they’ve demonstrated telekinesis exceeding almost any other passer/catcher combo in the league in the past 10 years. Did I think Wilson would be relegated to number two duty immediately? Yes, yes I did.
This all comes with a caveat. They have run the same amount of routes, Adams is theoretically still an elite target earner (he led the NFL in market share last year), and two games is a small sample. Things could certainly change. But if you’re a Wilson manager, this is about the best you could have hoped for through two games.
Bryce Young Was at Least a Little Less Stinky Sunday, and That: MIGHT MATTER?
There were reports before the game that Bryce Young had a chance to regain his starting gig with a good outing Sunday while subbing for Andy Dalton, who had been in a minor car crash. While we can’t call his outing good per se, context is critical.
Obviously, street wisdom would say if the Panthers are noncompetitive now, they should play Young; after all, Dalton is nobody’s future, and they may as well see what the kid can do in a lower-pressure environment, especially with what is likely to be a very high draft pick on the horizon. The worst-case scenario, street logic would say, is Young continues to stink, and the Panthers lock in the top spot.
But real football isn’t Madden; there are always more significant considerations on a human level. The players in the locker room need to know the coach has their best interests in mind; the coaches and GMs feel immense pressure to win right away, and Dave Tepper has a reputation as a more irrational owner than most. And what about Young? Maybe it would be in his best interests to sit out, regain his composure, rebuild his confidence, and try again another day – maybe even with another team.
They need to want to put Young out there for the Panthers’ sake. They need these factors to coalesce so that they feel it is in everyone’s best interest to see what he’s got and continue developing him in real-life game scenarios to give the Panthers the best chance at winning tomorrow. And Young can direct that with little slivers of hope; Sunday may have been just that. He brought his time to throw down to 2.74, his lowest of the season. He attacked downfield and put up his second-highest aDOT. He threw two TDs (two INTs, too, but Rome wasn’t built in a day). And his passing yardage total was nearly 80 yards higher than his previous high in 2024. And oh, by the way, he did this against the league’s best defense with his two top receivers out of the lineup.
Who knows his relationship with Canales? He knows so much more about Young than we do; their relationship has its own nuance. But based only on what’s on paper, it feels a bit like Young should earn another start on a probationary basis.