Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Tyrone Tracy’s Down Game: DOESN’T MATTER, THOUGH THE GIANTS’ OVERALL OFFENSIVE STATE IS ANOTHER MATTER
Tyrone Tracy became a household name a week ago, at least among fantasy managers. If you had been paying attention to the Fantasy Footballers or my writing going back to the summer, Tracy was always a candidate to stalk down ham-and-egger Devin Singletary. The Giants desperately need explosiveness, something Singletary doesn’t offer; Tracy is incredibly explosive. When Singletary was out last week, Brian Daboll called Tyrone, giving him 23 opportunities to cash in as Week 6’s number-five fantasy RB.
This week, Tracy received only nine opportunities for a whopping 32 touchdown-less yards in a slog of a game against the Eagles. At first blush, it might seem he ceded much of his responsibility back to Singletary, but that isn’t the case.
The Eagles dominated Sunday’s game soup to nuts, and the Giants had trouble getting anything going offensively. In fact, as difficult as it may be to believe, Tracy still accounted for 26.9% of the Giants’ total team yardage. He outsnapped Singletary 39-12 and ran 19 more routes. And though Tracy only had six carries for 23 ground yards, Singletary had five for six. Tracy had a better share and a better game, and he is still in the catbird’s seat in North Jersey.
Andrew Thomas, Though: MATTERS QUITE A BIT, IT WOULD SEEM
We knew Andrew Thomas was among the league’s best young left tackles. He went out against the Bengals last Sunday night; it turned out to be a Lisfranc injury that required surgery, ending his season. We knew it would affect how the Giants played, but Daniel Jones was sacked seven times in their first game without Thomas. After Jones was benched late, the Eagles sacked Drew Lock again for good measure.
Jones was able to muster just 99 passing yards Sunday, hitting 4.7 Y/A and completing just 14 passes to be divided up among some of our favorites: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy. If it persists, this is a big problem; last year, the Giants averaged 13.6 points per game over a seven-game stretch without Thomas. The Giants draw Pittsburgh and T.J. Watt next week; the week after, they face Washington, who entered Week 7 with the league’s eighth-best pressure rate over expected.
Sudden Changes in Cleveland: MATTER
It’s been a big week for the Browns. Since Sunday’s anticlimactic loss to Philly sent them to 1-5, the Browns:
- Announced Watson would continue to start
- Traded Amari Cooper to Buffalo
- Demoted Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson
- Saw Watson tear his Achilles
- Saw Thompson-Robinson kind of look just as bad as Watson
- Saw Thompson-Robinson hurt his finger and take a seat for emergency QB Winston
- Saw Winston immediately lead a scoring drive
The next step may be Kevin Stefanski winning Coach of the Year. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Last year, the Browns:
- Started Watson, who was horrible for weeks
- Tried to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker, who were both arguably worse
- Lost Watson to a season-ending injury
- Had a veteran backup light a fire down the stretch and lead them to the playoffs
I’m not saying it will happen, but most Cleveland fans would at least like a chance to find out.
We need to remember a few things here: Winston took a sack on his one drive (DTR took one as well); this Browns’ line is horrendous. And Winston is possibly the most maddening all-gas-no-brakes QB of the past two decades. No one throws caution to the wind like Winston; he will frustrate the absolute phooey out of Browns fans at certain points. But admittedly, he’ll also make as many jaw-dropping throws that cut defenses to ribbons. And I suppose, for the Browns’ sake, based on what this season has been like, that will do just fine.
Sending Cooper to Buffalo did a few things to the Browns in their first week without him: Jerry Jeudy ran 80 routes (that won’t happen every week; that’s incredibly high play volume). Cedric Tillman elevated and put up 8-81-0, and David Njoku returned with 10-76-1. All three become more interesting based on recent developments.
Tank Bigsby’s Massive Day in London: DOESN’T MATTER AS MUCH AS YOU MIGHT THINK
Is Tank Bigsby slipping me a crisp twenty under the table every week to talk about him? (Gasps, looks around, feigns smile). No! Come on, guys; I’ve never even met T-t-tank, is it? (Swipes hand through the air dismissively).
Okay, so two weeks ago, I assessed that the takeover was complete, and Tank had taken the lead back duties away from Travis Etienne. Then, a week ago, I pointed out how game script dependency would matter because he is a nonfactor in the passing game. This week, we learned how the Jags would use him if they could beat up a team like a low-hanging piñata made of sugar glass pinned firmly to a cinder block wall.
Due in large part to an early 60-yard dart to Brian Thomas and a Parker Washington returned punt, the Jags only needed 59 plays on Sunday to win comfortably after Jacksonville got in front of the hapless Pats at Wembley. They had a 66% run rate as a result. There was a point where Jacksonville ran the ball on 19 straight plays.
Something tells me it won’t always be so easy for Jacksonville. This was a case of the bullied finding someone to bully. The Jags have often looked like nearly the worst the NFL has to offer this year. They won’t have so much fun facing Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Detroit in the coming weeks (this combination of teams also represents the second-toughest RB fantasy schedule over the next four games). Consider trading Bigsby if you’ve got him.
Russell Wilson: MATTERS
No one wanted to consider this one thing: what if Russell Wilson was better than Justin Fields? I’ve backed Wilson over Fields as a real-life QB most of the offseason (I’ve got receipts), but much of this was based more on a lack of confidence in Fields than confidence in Wilson. When a calf injury to Wilson forced Fields into the lineup for the first handful of games, many assumed Wilson would never rebound. Only recently did I admit that Fields would probably retain the job and was doing better than I had expected. With the Steelers 4-2 and Fields playing better this season than Wilson was the last time we saw him, it seemed like a true-blue Wally Pipping. But Mike Tomlin shocked the NFL-watching world by announcing Wilson over Fields once the injury cleared up.
Sunday night, Wilson chopped up the Jets, who had been the league’s sixth-best pass defense by EPA per dropback allowed, going 16/29 for 264-2-0 and adding another score on the ground.
As an extension, Wilson, who has supported WR1 seasons in the past from Doug Baldwin, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, who can win downfield, looked for George Pickens deep and often. Pickens put up a stat line of 5-111-1, including an old Russ back shoulder moon ball down the left sideline in the second quarter. He also played very well out of play action, going 8/9 for 150 yards. Play action is a big part of what Arthur Smith has historically done, and it is a bit part of Wilson’s history as a once-elite QB.
It’s a small sample, but if Wilson is kind of back (it is at least possible he simply wasn’t a fit for Sean Payton and his offense), Pickens seems like a massive beneficiary going forward.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Return: COULDN’T REALLY MATTER MORE
The Dolphins were the league’s fourth-best offense in EPA per play last year; they are dead last this year. The difference? Tua Tagovailoa has been out since midway through the second game after suffering his fourth concussion in three years. Tagovailoa is expected to make his return next week.
Passing hasn’t really been a thing in his absence. Skylar Thompson has earned 93.5 passing yards per game, Tyler Huntley has had 125.7 (he left early Sunday), and Tim Boyle put up 74 in his place in limited work. Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards a year ago. The difference to the whole operation will be enormous, as it has been, and should reanimate the fantasy production of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert. It will probably mean putting Jonnu Smith, who had a big Sunday, back in the bottle somewhat. The target distribution tends to be very narrow with Tagovailoa under center.
Kenneth Walker’s Split Share: DOESN’T MATTER
A common theme from Sunday’s action was illness; Deebo Samuel and Demario Douglas basically thought better of it after suiting up and giving it a go. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s season debut was delayed by it. Then, there was Kenneth Walker, who was also sick heading into Week 7. Without that context, the timeshare with Zach Charbonnet would be concerning; Walker had five fewer snaps and ran four fewer routes than Charbonnet, and Charbs cut into his rushing share a bit more than usual, even sniping a rushing score.
But with that context, it’s a total case of There’s Nothing to See Here. Walker’s fantasy day was fine, with two scores on the day, even if his efficiency was slightly lower per carry. He also had another long TD called back on a phantom holding call early in the game that would have given him a monster day (and he added his rendition of the Dirty Bird that was consequently also stricken from the official record).
San Francisco’s Mounting Injury Burdens: MATTER, AND PROVE EVEN KYLE SHANAHAN NEEDS HIS OFFENSES TO HAVE SOME TALENT
Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. Other teams have had brutal injury luck; for the 49ers, it seems it only happens to the players we care about most. Brandon Aiyuk is going to get an MRI, and it will probably make official what is already suspected – he has a torn ACL and is out for the year.
Above, I mentioned how Deebo Samuel was too sick to be effective and left the game early yesterday; he had already missed time earlier this year. Kittle also missed a game earlier this year. And, of course, Christian McCaffrey’s lingering Achilles issue — learned, for most, after he was taken first overall — has kept him out all year.
The manifestation of this is a Bizarro-world version of the hyper-efficient Kyle Shanahan system that needs the horse to break before it can get back on the saddle. If Ricky Pearsall (who is an add in 12-team leagues this week) can live up to the first-round billing, and if Jauan Jennings (himself injured and unable to play this weekend) can be okay, there are probably still enough weapons to subsist once McCaffrey can return. However, the Niners will have to scratch and claw at every step just to get there alive.
Brock Bowers Without Davante Adams: MATTERS, AND HE’S PROBABLY GOING TO BE THE 2024 TE1 OVERALL
We see it sometimes with WRs. CeeDee Lamb had it a year ago. Justin Jefferson had it before that. Davante Adams himself had it in Green Bay a few years back: the profane merger of incredible talent and limitless opportunity. It’s happening now, right before your eyes, but not to a WR. Brock Bowers is now firmly on the shortlist to be the fantasy TE1 in 2024.
When Adams was shipped to the Meadowlands, Bowers was left as the unquestioned best talent in the Raiders’ passing game. He has proven he is up to the challenge, running routes and seeing increased market shares.
At 23%, Bowers’ market share equals Kittle and trails only Evan Engram (27%) and Trey McBride (25%). Engram’s problem is that there are good target-earners around him, notably Brian Thomas, Jr., who looks like a bona fide NFL stud.
Kittle has always been inconsistent but has become even more interesting in the race for TE1 based on all the injuries in San Francisco. Still, Kittle’s fantasy production is always arrested by the fact that he’s such a valuable blocker in a run-first scheme.
McBride has been the popular choice to ascend to the top, especially as a screaming regression candidate with zero TDs. Believe it or not, McBride is probably even less talented than Bowers (which is about Bowers, not McBride), and Bowers is due for almost just as much regression, having scored one TD despite more yards than McBride. Bowers’s combination of talent and opportunity may be the greatest of all at TE, and he’s my favorite to bring top honors at the position home.