Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here; is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out 10 of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Tank Bigsby: MATTERS, AND ETIENNE MANAGERS SHOULD BE AT DEFCON ONE MILLION
If no one scooped honorary My Guy Tank Bigsby a week ago, someone indeed will this week; make sure you are that person. Bigsby trucked and dragged defenders, spinning and driving – it sounds like not all of these verbs could apply at once, but they did – and willed himself into the end zone in the third quarter. A star power-up seemed like the only possible explanation.
It was an impressive run – one in a growing number of impressive runs for Bigsby in 2024. From there, he was Jacksonville’s guy. And he made it a matching set when he shot through a mouse hole and slipped a tackle, then outsprinted the Colts’ defense for a 65-yarder in the fourth quarter, which, at the time, seemed to end the game. He finished with 13-101-2, adding a solitary 28-yard reception; Travis Etienne went 6-17-0.
The Jags will likely ride the hot hand into the next week, and Bigsby will probably serve as the 1A to Etienne’s 1B.
Miami Pulling Out a Gross Win: MIGHT KINDA MATTER
Miami has been so bad since Tua Tagovailoa got a concussion in Week 2 that they were underdogs to the hapless Patriots, who are predictably uninspiring to start the year after their new HC essentially told them they did not matter to him as much as some hypothetical future when Drake Maye can be taken out of the packaging whenever they have…(shrug)…better players or something? I think it’s the wrong move to deprive a team of their best chance to win based on a theoretical future appointment where the conditions might be better (the Texans, who were in a nearly identical spot last year, didn’t, and they made the playoffs), but I digress.
With every week the Dolphins fail, the more we run the risk they will want to pack it in for the year; this would be detrimental to so many fantasy factors: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane, who was himself concussed on Sunday.
Obviously, we don’t want anyone to sustain a concussion; they are serious things that can have grave short-term and long-term ramifications. However, from a pure football perspective, Achane’s timing could not have been better for the team, which has a bye next week.
With the win, the Dolphins advanced to 2-3. Even if they can’t beat Indy next week, they’ll be 2-4 – not ideal, but not as insurmountable as 1-5 somehow seems. All indications are Tagovailoa will return when he’s eligible to come off IR in Week 8. HC Mike McDaniel can also use the bye to game plan for Indy as well, giving Miami a better shot to creatively come up with a one-time all-you-got sucker punch, and Snoop Huntley will have been in the system one additional week.
It feels more hopeful our fantasy pieces in Miami can maintain relevance today than it did Saturday.
Aaron Jones‘s Hip Injury: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER
Aaron Jones appears to be one of the crucial elements that drives the Vikings’ offense. He entered Week 5 fifth in receptions, fifth in receiving yardage, eighth in rushing yardage, third in expected points, and fifth in fantasy scoring. He was off to a good start early at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but a hip injury popped up, and he was gone.
Ty Chandler got an excellent workload in his absence, ending the game with 46 snaps. Unfortunately for Chandler truthers, he wasn’t able to make much of the opportunity; the New York Jets‘ defense is good, but rushing is where they have been vulnerable this season, ranking 21st in offensive EPA per rush. The Vikings had a substantial lead when he took over, so we would have expected an extensive stat line from Chandler.
Regardless, the Vikings are off next week, and Jones is expected to be ready for Week 7. It is good we witnessed the Vikings’ response to Jones’s absence; we can log Chandler as a pretty defined insurance policy, but based on this injury, we probably won’t see it right away.
Alec Pierce’s Big Plays: ARE STARTING TO MATTER, BUT KEEP HIM IN PROPER PERSPECTIVE
Alec Pierce entered Week 5 with the highest aDOT and yards per reception in the league for players with at least 50 routes. He was even 10th in yards per route run.
He did nothing to harm his standing in any of these stats on Sunday, making three catches ranging from 24 to 65 yards apiece (the most impressive of the three was the shortest) to go 3-134-1 (it was incredibly close to being 3-135-2, but a diving effort for the goal line was spoiled by an errant shin bone, which touched the ground while the ball was in the process of being extended to the half-yard line.
Pierce will be volatile – think of him as Marvin Jones, Jr. – but he’s playable through the bye weeks if you’ve got the stomach for the downside, and the upside on a week-to-week basis is limitless. He will probably be better if backup QB Joe Flacco is under center. Of course, the Colts will probably resume the development of their sophomore first-round draft pick, Anthony Richardson. The good news is that these big plays are compatible with Richardson, they probably just won’t be as frequent.
Nico Collins’ Injured Hamstring: MATTERS, AND THERE ARE WRINKLES TO IT
Nico Collins jumped out to a killer start against the Bills, securing two catches for 78 yards – the second of which was a beautiful bomb from C.J. Stroud over the top of Buffalo’s defense. But he left the game with an injured hamstring.
Obviously, we hope this injury doesn’t matter, as we would prefer Collins to be healthy enough to play next week. However, if he doesn’t go, it would be devastating for his managers, as he came into the week with the most receiving yards in the NFL and the second-most fantasy points among WRs. But if he’s gone, the pieces of the pie get redistributed.
Available targets are a myth, in large part, because no one takes over the same role at WR. But two targets that would have been Collins’ go here, one goes there, and three go to yet another, etc. This would no doubt increase the significance of Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz more than it would make John Metchie or Robert Woods relevant. Dell, who doesn’t play on two-receiver sets, would seem to be the biggest beneficiary.
Roschon Johnson’s Goal Line Work: DOESN’T MATTER
The Bears seemed to put effort into getting Roschon Johnson on the field after D’Andre Swift failed to convert near the goal line in the second quarter against Carolina. Later in the game, Johnson scored again.
But Swift has balled out for two straight weeks, scoring on the ground, through the air, and also at the goal line. Even in this game, Johnson was credited with three goal-line touches, and Swift was credited with six.
Johnson may be a nuisance here and there, but he shouldn’t knock Swift off course from being a back-end RB1, which is likely the best we could hope for. Plus, Swift appears to be insulated by passing-game work. Start Swift with confidence and consider Johnson a volatile TD-or-bust back-end flex with contingency value.
Erick All Leading the Bengals’ TEs in Snaps and Routes: MIGHT MATTER BUT TO LIMITED EFFECT
Brock Bowers is obviously the most productive rookie TE, but it may have gone unnoticed that Erick All, an alumnus of Tight End University, has been second-most productive. All came into the week with the ninth-best receiving grade and eighth-best yards per route run among all TEs, not just rookies.
Mike Gesicki, who had a massive Week 2, and Drew Sample have steadily been scaled back in favor of All. Tanner Hudson, who is back from injury, was deemed a healthy scratch Sunday. All didn’t produce on the stat sheet against Baltimore, but he has a perfect catch rate, a positive FPOE, and has scored 1.7 PPR/Opp, which is very high. This is only a small sample, but that’s the point. We want to see the sample grow; if it continues to do so, we could have a free TE1 that was left in the couch cushions.
The Falcons’ Pass-Heavy Approach: MIGHT MATTER, BUT MIGHT NOT
Chalk this up to setting your major to “undeclared,” but I still can’t tell if Atlanta is pass-heavy or run-heavy.
The Falcons have had odd game scripts this season; for starters, they have spent 87.5% of their time in a neutral script, which is a massive amount through five games. This should indicate that their pass-to-run rate is close to their heart’s desire. In neutral scripts, they pass 60% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. So, they would seem pass-heavy. Based on that, Thursday night’s 58-attempt outing by Kirk Cousins might seem more on the spectrum of the norm.
This behavior opened everything up in the Atlanta pass game. Drake London drew 14 targets, converting them into 12-154-1. Darnell Mooney drew 16 targets, converting them into 9-105-2. Ray-Ray McCloud went 6-66-0, and Kyle Pitts went 7-88-0. And Kirk Cousins broke a Falcons record with 509 yards and four TDs. Congrats if you played him; you probably had won your week by Friday morning.
But wait. Cousins only averaged 29.75 attempts per game in his first four games, which is 20th in the league; 58 is almost twice that. So, how does that math add up?
For starters, the Falcons’ opponents have run 287 plays so far through four games — an average of 71.75, which is a lot. For context, the Browns were the only team in the NFL with over 70 plays per 60 minutes last year. As such, the Falcons are 31st in the league in time of possession. Adjusting their first four games to 30-minute time of possession would turn that average into 33.62 attempts per game, ranking 10th. This week, they held an 87-53 advantage over Tampa Bay.
Additionally, despite what neutral script stats would indicate, the Falcons rank just 22nd in pass rate over expected (PROE). We use stats like PROE because they provide added context that we can’t otherwise see. This lower PROE indicates that, despite appearances, the Falcons still prefer to run the ball more in situations where a pass is expected than the inverse.
So, are they pass heavy or run heavy? We wait and continue to observe for now, but I think Thursday’s game was the most significant clue yet. Don’t expect 500-yard passing outings every week, but the Falcons may be more functional through the air than we initially expected. And they may prefer to win that way.
Tyrone Tracy’s Big Day: MATTERS
Anyone who’s read my work knows I have been a stan for Tyrone Tracy as a zero RB candidate this year; Devin Singletary is a classic ham-and-egger. That, along with an imperfect offensive environment (although admittedly far better than I had imagined), puts Singletary in a low-upside situation.
But the thing is, we often think of these guys as high-floor, meaning, at least they’ll get me those eight points each week. The reality is that the downside is actually infinite because, when they aren’t winning games, losing teams start seeking new answers; people get benched, new combinations are tired, and schemes evolve.
Tracy is a converted WR and a great athlete who tested incredibly well at the combine. He has shown explosiveness in limited views so far this season, something Singletary essentially can’t provide. Now that the Giants have seen what Tracy can do, putting the genie back in the bottle is hard. Even if they continue to be more competitive than initially thought, Tracy is a part of the formula for that now; he simply gives the Giants better chances at breaking something bigger.
My guess if Singletary comes back next week? For a while, it’ll be a bit like early-season Zack Moss and Chase Brown; then, just as in that situation now, the more explosive guy will slowly start to take over.
Blake Corum’s Usage Increase: DOES MATTER, BUT ONLY IF IT ENDS UP MATTERING
Kyren Williams has been unflappable; considering how patched-together the Rams are at present, he has been the lone bright spot on the offense. Leading into Week 5, Williams was tied for fourth in percentage of team opportunities among RBs.
Nothing about that shifted much Sunday, as Williams ran for 22-102-1 and drew a target to maintain a 32% share of total team opportunities. However, veteran Ronnie Rivers had served as the primary backup (and assumed insurance policy). This week, Rivers was left off the dance card, and third-round RB Blake Corum seized the role; in it, he looked decent enough in limited work. He is a younger, better-known player with a better collegiate profile, so the role is probably Corum’s in perpetuity.
There is no standalone value; he is a contingency play only. However, based on the Rams’ history of elevating ball carriers and using them as workhorses, Corum should be considered one of the higher-end injury-away guys at the position.