Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here; is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out 10 of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Braelon Allen Cutting In: MATTERS, BUT BREECE HALL IS STILL A FANTASY STARTER
On Thursday Night Football, Breece Hall managed yet another TD, which acquitted his fantasy managers in what may have been an otherwise underwhelming performance. It certainly wasn’t one of those Thursday night performances that boot you from the face-off circle before you can take a hack, but it revealed some concerning trends for fantasy managers counting on Hall to score 15-20% of their fantasy points each week. Hall’s snaps fell to 57 while rookie Braelon Allen’s jumped to 23. What’s worse: Allen outplayed Hall, posting 5.0 YPC to Hall’s 3.4. He bested Hall in yards after contact per attempt, runs of 10 or more yards, forced missed tackles, yards per route run, PFF elusive rating, PFF rushing grade, and PFF receiving grade.
Hall does have the better of Allen in several advanced metrics for the season, but Allen looks good regardless, and the team likes him and wants him involved. There is probably little danger that Hall will lose the majority share of the backfield, but that it is already split almost three to two is frustrating for those who expected a bell cow. If you want the silver lining, we can postulate that the Jets used Allen more to give Hall a breather since they believed they had the upper hand in the matchup (let the record show I barely believe this). Hall would still be a fantasy starter with his opportunity, but his upside would be capped.
The Caleb Williams Explosion: DOESN’T MATTER. . .YET
The Chicago Bears ran 90 offensive plays Sunday. The average team runs between 60 and 70 offensive plays per 60 minutes. Last year, the Browns led the league with 72 per 60 minutes, the only team to eclipse 70. While it is encouraging to see massive numbers for Caleb Williams, who threw for 363 yards and two TDs, the numbers are probably hollow.
On the flip side, anything that could improve his confidence can’t be seen as bad for the Bears, and we should expect back-weighted production from high-profile rookies (meaning they will get better as the season goes along while they adjust to the NFL). However, the simple volume of plays is not only unsustainable, it is likely close to 150% of what the Bears should expect in a typical week. Williams would have had fewer than 250 yards and 1.3 TDs if we adjusted the numbers to that rate.
Derrick Henry‘s Usage: MATTERS, BUT WE FIGURED THIS WAS THE CASE
Derrick Henry is a front-runner; this dates back for many years now. In Week 1, he was given 13 attempts, in Week 2, he was given 18. Those were in closely contested dogfights. In Week 3, he played in a highly positive game script, and he was entrusted with 25 carries, which he converted into a massive 151-yard, two-TD day. Dating back to last year, he lost snaps to Tyjae Spears in negative scripts; he even took a smaller snap share than Spears in select games. The Ravens played far more like we would expect in Week 3 against Dallas, nursing an advantage, and so the Big Dog got the spoils. Since we expect the Ravens to be good this year, we would expect more games like this going forward. When the Titans were at their best, Henry rose to the fantasy top five, even without much receiving work; he could do it again. This is why getting Henry out of Tennessee and into a better environment was critical.
As a casual effect, the Ravens attempted very few passes; we’ve also seen this from them. When they are leading, they are running. When they are running, the pass-catchers are intolerable. Thankfully for Jackson himself, he compiled 87 rushing yards and a rushing score to save his fantasy day; sometimes, these game scripts aren’t the best for him either.
Mark Andrews’s Usage: MATTERS, AND UH OH, SPAGHETTI-O’S
Mark Andrews is mysteriously absent from several personnel groupings for the Ravens. In any situation where the Ravens bring out two RBs, he has been left out – that’s 21 and 22 personnel. Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar dominated these alignments for the past two weeks. With the Ravens trying to keep the Cowboys in base personnel as the Saints did a week ago, Andrews was out for 21 snaps, running six routes and being targeted once. Meanwhile, Likely was on the field for 39 snaps and Kolar for 26. Kolar ran fewer routes but was also targeted once. Likely ran almost twice as many routes and was targeted once.
All hope is not necessarily lost, but it’s fading fast. Andrews has to be sent to purgatory for most teams, as he is not doing enough to start but has too much potential to be dropped. It’s a bummer to hold an unplayable player at any position, but it stings twice as much with a onesie.
Diontae Johnson’s Awakening: MATTERS, AND WE SHOULD REACT BEFORE PEOPLE REALIZE THIS
The real story was Andy Dalton reviving the Panthers’ offense, but I already told you that was going to happen in last week’s edition, so it didn’t surprise us. The intrigue here hinged on which of his Panthers’ teammates would come alive.
A popular sleeper pick for the late rounds, Johnson was incredibly disappointing through the first two weeks. No one was lifted more by the Panthers’ decision to bench Bryce Young and shift to Andy Dalton than Johnson, who went off for 8-122-1 on a whopping 14 targets. Despite limited career efficiency, Johnson has long been an elite target earner, which vaulted him to a WR8 season in 2021.
In ways, he is the platonic ideal for an Andy Dalton WR (so is Adam Thielen, who got banged up Sunday). It may not always be this good, but we can expect Johnson to be highly playable going forward. If your teammates are slow to accept that, we can convince them they are selling high and buy a WR2 relatively cheap.
Rashid Shaheed’s Goose Egg: DOESN’T MATTER, OTHER THAN TO REMIND US TO MANAGE OUR EXPECTATIONS
Rashid Shaheed has been one of the stars of the pleasant-surprise Saints to start the year, hitting a 21% and 27% market share in his first two games and smashing for a terrific 17.6 air yards per target. It looked promising for Shaheed as he entered a matchup against the Eagles, who have struggled on the back end despite DC Vic Fangio’s propensity for the Cover 2 shell.
This week, the Eagles were different. And the Saints were not as effective. Shaheed was still involved, however, taking 42 snaps and receiving five targets compared to Chris Olave’s 45 snaps and six targets. Olave shined on the stat sheet this week, and Shaheed got blanked.
We should try to remember what Shaheed is. He’s a vertical threat that takes the lid off defenses. He’s very good at it. Think of him a bit like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, an Ismail brother, Mike Wallace, or Santana Moss. This archetype is volatile by nature, and we do well to ride the wave and remain calm, accepting the good days along with the bad. Shaheed was still doing the same thing Sunday that he had in the first two weeks; as long as he continues to, he could nuke your opponent at any time. My advice would be to roll with the punches and embrace the upside.
Justin Fields’s Stranglehold on the Steelers’ QB1 Role: MATTERS FOR HIS TEAMMATES
I admit it: I was slow to believe Fields would hold off Russell Wilson. It’s not that I think highly of Wilson; I haven’t believed in Fields. Through his first four seasons, Fields has been entirely uneven – all rushing, no passing. No QB has recorded as many rushing yards as Fields in NFL history while recording so few passing yards.
This skews the perception in the fantasy community because, while Fields is picking up ground yardage, he’s putting up fantasy points, so we think of him as good. Meanwhile, the NFL thought so little of him as a passer that the Steelers offered up a sixth-rounder, and none of the other 30 teams – not one – was willing to say, “You know, fine, I’ll give you a fifth.”
By now, I am willing to face the truth: The Steelers are undefeated, and Fields is improving weekly. So, at least for the foreseeable future, Fields is their QB. If this is the case, we should note where Fields and Wilson differ and adjust how we think of the surrounding pieces based on this change.
Russell Wilson has historically been a better deep thrower, although he’s appeared to decline in recent seasons. This has allowed him to succeed with downfield archetypes like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Doug Baldwin. Fields is not as good at this, which is bad news for George Pickens. Wilson doesn’t throw to the middle of the field well – QBs shorter than 6’0” never really have – and Fields can. This is excellent news for Pat Freiermuth, who is off to a solid start. And, of course, both Steelers RBs have had good receiving seasons, but Fields will not aid them in this way, seeing fit to take off running rather than dump off passes; this becomes a downgrade for Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris.
Bucky Irving: MATTERS
I’m a zero-RB guy, and one of my main targets this offseason was Bucky Irving. He fits the archetype. He’s part of an ambiguous backfield along with an RB who has poor efficiency in a promising offensive environment. If you’re like me, and you’ve been monitoring Irving’s usage with bated breath, hoping he would take over, congratulations, it looks like we’ve made it.
Rachaad White still led Tampa Bay in snaps by a wide margin, but Irving had more rushing attempts, hitting 70 yards on nine attempts to White’s 17 yards on six. White received more targets and receptions, but Irving outpaced him in yards per target. White will probably maintain a decent role as a pass catcher because he’s been good in that capacity, but ceding the majority of the rushing to Irving in perpetuity seems not only possible at this point but inevitable.
As an aside, Irving profiled as an excellent pass catcher out of college, too. Take that for what it’s worth.
DeAndre Hopkins’s Big Day: PROBABLY KINDA MATTERS
A knee sprain has hobbled DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, and initial reports suspected he was a low-key IR candidate. He wasn’t; he played in Week 1 but was used in an ultra-limited capacity, taking 17 snaps and running only nine routes. He has ramped up slowly, and this week, he ran a route on 22 of his 27 snaps. This was still only 53% of the team’s total snaps, so there is nowhere to go but up from here.
Yet, despite a limited workload, Hopkins led the Titans in targets with seven, receptions with six, and yards with 73. He even added a TD, which tied for the team lead. This indicates that Hopkins probably still has it, and if the workload increases to match this efficiency, he can again be in the WR2 universe.
Malik Nabers’s Apparent Unstoppability: MATTERS
Malik Nabers had one of the most head-scratching ADPs in fantasy this summer; he and Marvin Harrison were treated almost interchangeably among draftniks throughout the run-up to the draft, then they went two picks apart to teams coming off of similarly bad seasons. They both appeared far and away, the best wideout on their respective teams; only Harrison had real target competition in Trey McBride. As such, I have more shares of Nabers on my fantasy teams than any other player; at this point, it appears that will pay off.
That Nabers could do what he did on Sunday against the Browns was impressive, logging 8-78-2 on 12 targets. The Browns led the NFL in defensive EPA per play a year ago and came into Week 2 ranked ninth in defensive EPA per dropback. Moreover, the whole machine in New York seems to be working a little better now, even with the 1-2 record. Daniel Jones looks better, the running game is more proficient, and other receivers like Wan’Dale Robinson seem to have more room to work. But for our purposes, we are most interested in Nabers himself, who could legitimately be a WR1 this season.
Nabers has a potentially soft schedule in the coming weeks, drawing Dallas, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia. Seattle, Cincinnati, and Philly were all in the bottom 10 in defensive EPA per dropback a year ago, and Dallas has been very beatable in the secondary thus far.