Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Jonathan Taylor’s Points Explosion: MATTERS
So, first of all, let’s assume that Jonathan Taylor won’t get 218 rushing yards and three scores in Week 17; that’s not something we could rely upon. But can Taylor carry his momentum into a winnable matchup against the Giants and do enough to furnish a few mantles with championship trophies? You bet!
Indy plays the New York Giants next week. Coming into their game with the Falcons, the Giants had given up the seventh-most fantasy points on rushes this season, but in their previous five games, they had surrendered the most PPR points to RBs. This included allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and seventh-most receiving yards to RBs during that span.
The raw stats say the Giants are a juicy matchup for RBs, but so do per-play efficiency metrics. The Giants were ranked 24th in EPA per rush allowed and defensive success rate on rushes coming into the game. Surely, they are no better in any of these categories after surrendering 103 combined yards and two tuddies to Bijan Robinson this Sunday.
As of Sunday night, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Colts as 7.5-point favorites. Whether it’s Drew Lock, Tim Boyle, or Tommy DeVito under center for the Giants, it won’t budge this spread. And the Colts have a ton to play for as they are still alive in the AFC Wild Card hunt; now that they’ve seen how effective Taylor can be, expect them to see if there’s more water in that well.
Justice Hill’s Concussion: MIGHT SUPER DUPER MATTER
The Ravens have used Justice Hill in obvious passing downs all year; as has always been the case with Derrick Henry, he is deemphasized in the passing game, probably to preserve him for more opportunities on the ground, where he is dominant. Hill suffered a concussion on Saturday, and with the Ravens playing Wednesday, there is little time for him to recover.
The Ravens’ reaction on Saturday was to let Henry have the whole enchilada. This was an in-game adjustment, and we can’t know for certain what would happen with some time to prepare. But heading into the biggest week of the fantasy season, the thought of Henry having an every-down role is tantalizing, even against Houston’s sturdy defense.
Jahmyr Gibbs Without David Montgomery: MATTERS (AND I KNOW I’M A LITTLE LATE HERE)
I’ll let you behind the curtain a bit. Sometimes you finish an article using the available information; by the time it hits the webpage, the information is obsolete—or at least, there is a glaring omission. It’s part of the deal; you’re trying to hit a target that is constantly in motion. This one is here instead of in last week’s edition because the information wasn’t available until the article had been published.
Obviously, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs form one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL—each effective, even from a split workload. And while some teams have a philosophical reason for a split, sometimes this can also be a matter of having an abundance of talent worthy of touches. The Lions blew out the Bears on Sunday, so the gross stats on snap shares and target distribution will look skewed in the aggregate; Gibbs was on the field for 30 of the Lions’ first 34 offensive plays. This would indicate they see Gibbs as every down bell cow for now.
Next, the Lions get San Francisco, who came into this week ranked 28th in EPA per rush and 25th in defensive success rate before getting obliterated by De’Von Achane. The Niners rank as the fourth-most pronounced run funnel in the league coming into the week based on EPA per-play stats. Additionally, San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention Sunday, giving them no incentive to try and lick their wounds and keep pushing through so much adversity.
Jameis Winston’s Benching: MATTERS TO ALL THE REMAINING HEALTHY BROWNS
Again, I feel like I’m lagging, telling you things you already know, but Jameis Winston‘s benching also came after the article had gone out, so I’m here to clean it up. We know the Browns can move the ball and score points when Winston is under center and we know that with Deshaun Watson or Dorian Thompson-Robinson, they don’t. We know that; presumably, the Browns know that.
I assume they would justify the move by saying that they’ve seen enough of Winston to know that he won’t be their starter in 2025 and want to evaluate DTR as a backup (he’s not their QB of the future either). In the meantime, they are likelier to lose, and their draft pick will only improve. The Browns aren’t serious about winning anymore in 2024. And the decision to sit Winston is the thief of joy for fantasy players relying on Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman.
Jeudy has played in eight games where Winston has attempted at least 10 passes. Coming into the week, he had played in six where Winston had not. In those 14 games, Winston performed 10 PPR points better, securing roughly three more receptions, twice as many TDs, and 59 more receiving yards with Winston than without him. On Sunday, with Thompson-Robinson under center, he caught two passes for 20 yards and no scores. Njoku caught 6-88-0, but all of the Browns’ offensive pieces face an uphill battle in an offense that won’t sustain drives or score TDs.
Not for nothing, but this was against Cincinnati’s porous defense; next week, Cleveland takes on Miami’s much sturdier unit.
Chig Okonkwo: MIGHT MAYBE KIND OF MATTER?
Many dynasty gamers once held a torch for Chigoziem Okonkwo, a raw TE prospect taken in the fourth round out of Maryland in 2022. Okonkwo has flashed his athletic ability and found himself in the TE1 ranks a few times throughout his three-year career, but consistency has been challenging as he’s never been trusted as a full-time TE. Things may be changing.
Last week, Okonkwo had a 27% market share, the highest of his career. This week, he took 52 snaps, ran 30 routes, and drew another 26%. This is the first string of two consecutive games with at least a 23% share since two anomalous pop-ups in Weeks 8-9 of his rookie season.
Tennessee draws Jacksonville next—the fourth most advantageous matchup of the week according to the RotoViz SOS Streamer app.
Jalen Hurts’ Absence: MATTERS IN REAL LIFE, NOT AS MUCH IN FANTASY
Maybe that’s clumsily worded. Jalen Hurts’ absence matters in fantasy if he is your fantasy QB. His effect on those around him though? That’s debatable.
Hurts is in danger of missing his matchup against the Cowboys next Sunday. With a full week to recover, his chances of returning aren’t zilch; certainly, the Eagles and Hurts himself are incentivized by a narrow race for the conference one-seed, which they temporarily relented by letting the Commanders surge back and beat them this week. However, this is a new age, and teams are being far more cautious with concussions. The teams (rightly) put a player’s wellness above their own needs.
Two years ago, the Cowboys knocked off the Eagles in a late-season affair against then-backup Gardner Minshew. The Eagles were almost overly cautious with Hurts back then, bordering on a lesson in hubris; yet, that team sewed up the NFC East and barely lost the Super Bowl. They may be content to do it again; after all, Hurts is monumentally important to their quest to win a ring.
If Hurts is out, it clears up an entire rushing TD/G. Theoretically, a fraction of this should go to Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, or DeVonta Smith. What Barkley may lose in efficiency, it seems he should pick up in volume; he ran for 29 attempts against Washington. They play the Cowboys next week; Dallas is the second-biggest run funnel in the NFL based on EPA per-play stats. Furthermore, the focus in the passing game on Sunday was still incredibly narrow; Brown and Smith were far and away the leading target-earners. It is a small sample size, but the Eagles also ran an elite 74 plays, where they normally run 67. All is not lost… unless Hurts is your QB (in which case, it was probably was all lost this week—sorry).
Breece Hall: COULD MATTER AGAIN
Look, this one has a high potential to burn; I’ll admit it. But Breece Hall had 14 carries and five receptions—19 touches—against the Rams. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis had three touches apiece.
In a lost season, it almost seemed to make sense for the Jets to shut Hall down after he was injured three weeks ago, but that is a dead issue now; at this point, Hall seems healthy and nothing about the Jets’ situation has changed since they initially made that decision. If anything, Davis and Allen seem more banged up than Hall.
The Jets’ next matchup seems daunting to the naked eye, but the Bills are beatable. RBs have averaged 24.6 PPR against them in the five games leading up to this week, ranking as the seventh-most favorable matchup for opposing fantasy RBs. Hall is typically insulated from a negative script because of his pass-catching ability. It’s a bit of a prayer, but Hall could come through in the final week if you have been lucky enough to survive him.
Patrick Taylor: DOESN’T MATTER
Turns out there is a limit to how many inception levels we can take before a new miracle 49ers RB will no longer regenerate where the old one left off—or, at least, there is a point where that person is Deebo Samuel.
The 49ers hypothetically began with Elijah Mitchell as the expected backup; they churned through Jordan Mason, then Christian McCaffrey—back from his injury all too briefly—and finally Isaac Guerendo. All have been capably relied upon for fantasy managers in the past. So, with clues pointing to Patrick Taylor getting the next crack, many bit down and plugged him into lineups.
And, indeed, of all of the natural RBs on the roster, Taylor would have been the one you wanted, taking 100% of the RB carries. It simply turned out you didn’t want any of them.
The Lions are next; they should dominate San Francisco, who was a factor in the passing game Sunday. You can let Taylor go if you need the space.
George Pickens: MATTERS TO THE STEELERS’ OFFENSIVE FUNCTIONALITY
After their Saturday loss to Baltimore, here are the splits with and without George Pickens:
| With Pickens (3 Games) | Without Pickens (12 Games) | |
| PPR/G | 24.7 | 19.0 |
| Plays/G | 68.33 | 56.3 |
| paYDS/G | 209.8 | 157.0 |
| paTDs/G | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| ruYDs/G | 133.1 | 97.7 |
| ruTDs/G | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Win Pct. | 75% | 33% |
| Pts/Drive | 2.25 | 1.68 |
Pickens is far and away the most talented member of the Steelers’ skill core; they need him if they want to fire on all cylinders.
The Cowboys’ Hot Streak: MATTERS, JUST YOU WAIT AND SEE
It’s a weird one, writing about a team eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday, but listen. I’m from Dallas and grew up with this team. If I know Jerry Jones like I think I know Jerry Jones, mark my words: Mike McCarthy might not be cooked. I believe he can still salvage his job on the back of this winning streak, especially if he can beat the Eagles and/or Commanders in the next two weeks (if he can win both, I guarantee it; I will fly to Arizona and let Andy, Mike, and Jason pour water on me if I’m wrong). Maybe that isn’t what you want to hear; maybe you’re an Eagles fan and it is. But the Cowboys have plenty of fight left, and they’ve almost dragged themselves back to .500.
I’ve written this for months. The reason for it all—not signing marquee free agents, letting others go, trading pieces away that may have made a difference—amounted to this: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons were all up for contracts, and they all play expensive positions. They are the nucleus of the whole operation. Remember that Dallas just barely succumbed to San Francisco in the playoffs two years ago—a team that may have made it had they not lost all of their QBs in the NFC Championship game. Forget what Stephen A. says; Dallas didn’t choke; they lost because someone always has to (a week before, they sent Tom Brady to retirement).
This offseason they had three options: consider the window shut and start over, languish and endlessly restructure while kicking the can down the road, eventually culminating in a year when the bill comes due, or trim the fat and keep the nucleus intact to make another run at it with these three studs and a set of kids.
It was always going to be this way once they decided to do this. But by now, they’ve already taken their medicine, and the kids are all right. Dallas has even battled through tremendous adversity with injuries, and their competitiveness in a meaningless game on Sunday night is incredibly telling. The cap room always climbs, and the Cowboys will have more flexibility going forward. If they get the band back together in 2025, they’ll be back in the mix.
And I think they probably will.