Things That Matter & Things That Don’t: Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out some of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
The Way the 49ers Lost on Sunday Night: MATTERS
The Niners entered Week 13 as longshots to make the playoffs; they were only a game behind the first-place Seahawks, but they were also last in the division and short on every tie-breaker in the tight NFC West. Not only so, they have been fighting a horrible injury bug all year, their starting QB was questionable going into the game, and they looked across the aisle to see the betting favorite for MVP and the most consistent and possibly best team in the AFC staring back at them . . . through a blizzard . . . in front of an amped-up crowd.
Not only did San Francisco suffer a soul-crushing defeat that was never in doubt, but the Seahawks and Rams distanced themselves in the West. Worst of all, Christian McCaffrey, already in a listless year, suffered a non-contact PCL injury that has threatened the rest of his season.
There’s no way to glass-half-full this; the Niners’ 2024 campaign is almost certainly over. Mathematically, they are still alive and will undoubtedly keep fighting because that’s what they should do. But a very tough schedule awaits: the rejuvenated Bears, the Rams, the Dolphins, the Lions, and the Cardinals all await. All but the Bears and possibly the Dolphins have realistic playoff aspirations; the Rams and Dolphins are far better teams than they were months ago. The Lions are arguably the best in the game.
Furthermore, the 49ers seem broken. Their defense is not formidable and their offense is lukewarm (when at least lukewarm outside). They have lost a lot of personnel and confidence, and the vibes are devastating.
Trent Williams: MATTERS, AND IT IS SO OVERLOOKED
Let’s zoom in on one specific hard-luck development for the Niners before we move on:
Trent Williams will be in Canton one day; his fate is sealed. No one would ever say it because he plays offensive line, but Williams may be the best NFL football player of his era. If not, someone could at least make a case without being laughed out of the conversation.
Williams missed his second-straight game for the 49ers on Sunday night, and the 49ers lost by 25 points. Was it all because of him? Certainly not, but he does make a massive difference when he is in a game versus when he’s not. Check out these gnarly splits from the RotoViz Game Splits App on 49ers games from the start of 2021 through Week 12 (not counting last night):
That’s an astounding disparity for any one non-QB. Last night’s performance did these splits no favors. Williams is as valuable to the 49ers as anyone, and they are especially doomed if he remains out going forward.
The Biggest Forget-You-Fantasy-Fans NFL Bye Week in Recorded History (DEN, IND, NE, BAL, WAS, HOU): MATTERS, AND REINFORCES THAT THE NFL TAKES YOU FOR GRANTED
In a move that would come across as an origin point for incoming hubris but for the fact that it will not ignite deep resentment, turn fans against the product, and topple an empire because we are entirely addicted and can’t discipline ourselves to stop watching, the NFL has scheduled six teams for a bye in Week 14.
That’s right. One week before the start of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues—a week where many teams are scratching and clawing in must-win games—many will have Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Mark Andrews, Bo Nix, Zay Flowers, Anthony Richardson, and Drake Maye (along with several others who may be playable in fantasy) stripped from them by the very entity that profits off of the millions of fantasy football gamers who pump billions of dollar bucks directly into their veins.
If you are one of the teams most affected by this, you won’t get the luxury of holding fantasy defenses with excellent playoff schedules or incredible contingency RBs because you will have to ensure you make the playoffs first. If you are relatively bye-free this week, congrats; you probably hold a significant advantage over your opponent, who is no doubt struggling to fill out a lineup.
Bucky Freaking Irving: MATTERS, AND HE MIGHT BE THAT GUY YOU NEEDED IN 2024
It’s hard to sound impartial when I’m so giddy for Bucky Irving, whom I have on many rosters. Admittedly, there was also a dark period when my faith shook, and I unloaded him in a league or two. It was never a question of his talent for me; it was a matter of trusting the Tampa Bay coaching staff to do the right thing. That was the rollercoaster; this is the big finish.
In his last three games, Irving has ranked seventh, third, and first among all RBs in PPR fantasy scoring. His dominance down the stretch against Carolina was instrumental in patching together the narrow victory and preserving the Bucs’ playoff hopes. By now, his talent has been undeniably noted, and the coaching staff in Tampa seems more than willing to let it ride.
The Bucs have one hard matchup with the Chargers in two weeks; otherwise, it sets up well for Irving, as he gets the Raiders, Cowboys, and Panthers again in his other three remaining games.
Ladd McConkey: MATTERS
If Irving is a big W for this fantasy analyst, Ladd McConkey is a big ol’ fat L. I never suggested McConkey was a lousy pick; I did have a notable public fade on him at ADP, and that is because I doubted he had a ceiling. I recognized the expended draft capital and the Chargers’ apparent lack of resources in the passing game. Still, I acknowledged that Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer also required draft capital.
A slot-first smallish receiver—a PPR accumulator without TD upside in a run-first scheme in a rebuilding year—these were not appealing to me. But the best-case scenario has come up all sevens for McConkey; the Chargers are good, they are not as run-heavy as initially feared, and he is, in fact, way better at football than Johnston and Palmer.
McConkey has gone 33-556-2 in six appearances since Week 5. He is the PPR WR8 during that span.
Parker Washington’s Points Explosion: DOESN’T MATTER
For starters, Parker Washington is a scrappy little dude with that dog in him—a Steve Smith starter kit, stylistically (no, I’m not saying he is even close to as good as Smith; stop it), who has suddenly happened upon a more meaningful role in his offense due to the season-ending injuries of Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. He had a great day on Sunday, going 6-103-1 while clearly distinguishing himself as second-fiddle to Brian Thomas, Jr. in snaps and routes run. He should be added in deep WR-needy leagues for added depth. Don’t be in a hurry to play him, though.
For starters, Thomas was shadowed Sunday by Derek Stingley Jr.; this won’t always be the case. He should see market share and production increases when he is not his opponent’s sole focus.
Washington’s upcoming schedule is not particularly peachy; the Jets, Raiders, and two appointments with the Titans comprise a bottom-10 schedule for fantasy WRs from here.
Finally, Trevor Lawrence was badly concussed after entering the game banged up. I know Doug Pederson is in the hottest of seats. However, as a human managing another human, he may recognize it is better to shut Lawrence down for the season (even if he didn’t, it might not be up to him); numbness should set in for Pederson as he lets the reality of the situation wash over him like salty waves under a tranquil blue sky—scenes from an imminent forced retirement.
Kirk Cousins’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER
I know; I get it. Everyone is in a tizzy because a veteran had one of the worst days of his professional career, and a QB drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft this spring is lurking in the wings. But let’s be pragmatic about Kirk Cousins and the Falcons for a second.
Two amazing games preceded Cousins’ three terrible efforts in a row. Two of the three games in this losing streak were against the Broncos and Chargers, who rank first and fourth in EPA per play allowed, so they are two of the most dominant defenses in the league. And I understand that Cousins made some severely brain-dead plays that would have looked bad against anyone; does anyone remember the time he knelt the ball when he was supposed to spike it like he pressed the wrong button in Madden?
Sometimes, Cousins does brain-dead things; he also has a much longer history of doing great things, including plenty of instances from this year. He may deserve a little grace.
Also, as bad as they’ve been in the last three games, the Falcons are still in first place in the NFC South at 6-6. They will probably not make significant moves to shake things up when they are at the most critical inflection point for what some might consider a successful campaign.
Tank Dell: DOESN’T MATTER, AND IT HURTS SO BAD
Many of you probably gave up the ghost a long time ago; I’m slower to come along with Tank Dell, who falls into the typical patterns for my personal Waterloos (Jaylen Waddle is still gonna do it, y’all). Dell had a historically effective rookie season—no lie—before he broke his leg last year; maybe it is a slow recovery from that, or perhaps it is a slow recovery from being shot in a wrong-time/wrong-place incident this spring. Maybe he excelled in a hyper-efficient small sample skewed by a high TD rate and has regressed to his standard form. Whatever it is, it isn’t happening for Dell in 2024.
He’s received extra opportunities with extended absences from Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs; I don’t know why it would change now that Collins has returned to full strength. The Texans are super-run heavy, and Dell has a sub-20% market share. Read ’em and weep.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: DOESN’T MATTER, AND I CAN’T BELIEVE I FEEL LIKE I’M PUTTING MYSELF OUT THERE IN WRITING THAT
The four-step waiver designation program for field-stretching Z-receivers: Admit the fantasy points have been eye-popping, and it would have been cool to have had that in your lineup; recognize that nothing about the advanced stats predicted or supported this happening, nor predict or support its recurrence in the future. Make peace with your decision to pass on the thrill of the explosive points, knowing you’ve used logical means to make a wiser decision; break your TV because the freaking guy did it again.
I don’t know, man. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not supposed to be a consistent fantasy player, but here’s the thing: the Saints have lost Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means already; add Taysom Hill to the list as of Monday afternoon. And yet, the Saints’ offense is still somewhat capable of moving the ball and scoring points. Not only has Valdes-Scantling been scoring, but he’s also been running the team’s most routes. That sounds pretty good when I’m on a bye-pocalypse here and have to replace Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton, and Zay Flowers or miss the playoffs.
Listen to me: market share + play volume = fantasy points. New Orleans has run a league-average 65 offensive plays per 60 minutes in 2024; their 46% run rate since Week 8 is tied for sixth in the league, which leaves them at about 35 dropbacks per game. Valdes-Scantling drew a 14% market share in both Week 11 and Week 12. This week, he drew 7%. At an estimated 10% share at these rates, that’s 3.5 targets per game. Don’t fall for him. Don’t rely on him; use him if you must because you are desperate, but don’t think the past three weeks are the norm for MVS. Then, try to show restraint and not break your TV when it happens again.
Rico Dowdle: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER, DOES HE?
Rico Dowdle had 22-112-1 on Thanksgiving Day against the Giants; this was the highest rushing output of his career. It seemed like the final step in changing the guard in the Dallas backfield—as if the Cowboys had finally admitted what we knew all along
But let’s keep a proper perspective here. The Giants ranked dead last against opposing RBs in PPR in their previous five games leading up to this. They rank 26th this season in EPA per rush allowed. This is an abysmal rush defense.
The Cowboys have a decent schedule for fantasy RBs the rest of the way, but in championship week, they meet Philly, possibly the best team in the NFL. All but Carolina should be favored to beat Dallas, raising game script concerns for Dallas RBs in their other games, and he’s a fine receiver, but not the kind that salvages his fantasy day by taking on a WR stat line when his team is getting creamed. Finally, as well as Cooper Rush has played, the Cowboys may realistically want to turn to Trey Lance in a lost season once they are mathematically eliminated; theoretically, this would reduce high-value touches for the RBs. He’s a low-upside desperation RB2 or flex; he won’t become a difference-maker.