The TRUTH: Top QBs in 2024 Part II (Fantasy Football)
Whether you pulled off a Championship or died trying, the savvy manager knows the fantasy season never ends. The NFL is always evolving, and so are we. There will forever be new data, statistics, analytics, and trends that can help set us up for future success, which is why today we continue our deep dive into the TRUTH about the top QBs of the 2024 season.
If you haven’t already, I recommend checking out Part I of the TRUTH series, where we address the top-10 fantasy QBs this season.
Connect with the show:
To hear the TRUTH about QBs 10-24, check out the January 21st episode of the podcast.
Before we dive into the remaining QBs, let’s review how the TRUTH algorithm translates to fantasy performances. Our numbers today will only correlate with Weeks 1-17 (Week 18 disregarded):
- Great Games = > 26 points
- Good Games = 21 – 25 points
- Bust Games = 15 points <
- Missed Games do not count against consistency score
Quarterbacks Overview
Before we begin, it’s important to note that 45 individual top-12 performances were recorded this season, thanks to unsung heroes like Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley, Marcus Mariota, and many more. This number has remained relatively steady over the past three years, with 46 in 2023, 45 in 2022, and 49 in 2021.
It’s also worth noting that five of the top 10 QBs this season were drafted either outside of the top 14 or undrafted entirely, once again proving how volatile and unpredictable the QB position can be and providing more data in favor of the late-round or streaming QB strategies (at least in 1QB leagues).
We were fortunate to see a relatively healthy season for QBs, as 2024 proved a bounce-back year for the position in many respects. QBs this season:
- Were tied for the highest completion percentage of all time (65.3%)
- Held the highest TD rate since 2020 (4.53%)
- Had the most rush attempts and yards in a single season, and
- Had the fewest interceptions over the past 15 years
For even more analysis about the 2024 season, check out year nine of Kyle Borgognoni’s 25 QB Statistics from the Season series.
11. Kyler Murray | Cardinals
Age: 27.4 | ADP: 6.10/QB8
17 games – 372/541 for 3851/21/11 passing – 78/572/5 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 9
1st Half: 5 / 2nd Half: 19
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 13% | 38% | 44% |
Despite the release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 halfway through the regular season, Kyler Murray was able to return to QB1 status for the first time since his season-ending ACL tear in December 2022. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, this was far closer to his floor than his ceiling and nowhere near expectations, given his preseason hype as a dark horse for the QB1 overall finish.
The ceiling and upside games with Kyler will seemingly always be dependent on his legs. Although he had the fifth most rushing yards overall at the position (averaging 34 yards per game), his top-12 performances came at an extremely inconsistent clip. He averaged 21 PPG whenever rushing for over 20 yards, but that number dropped to 12.5 PPG when he came in any lower than that.
In fact, with a 44% bust rate, he was deemed by Andy as the “Mount Rushmore of busts” this season.
With the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the emergence of Trey McBride, we expected to see improvement in Arizona’s passing game this year. Unfortunately, that was simply not the case. While there is room for growth and connection with this young receiving core, we are starting to run out of excuses for Kyler to be great.
Is Kliff Kingsbury exposing how buns Kyler Murray really is? pic.twitter.com/prfX4Owb7o
— Jayden is your future pappy (@_Nonballknower) January 21, 2025
12. Brock Purdy | 49ers
Age: 25.0 | ADP: 9.02 / QB11
15 games – 300/455 for 3864/20/12 passing – 66/323/5 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 8
1st Half: 7 / 2nd Half: 12
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 13% | 47% | 40% |
While the Brock Purdy haters were out in full force this season, it’s worth noting that Mr. Irrelevant overcame the most injury-riddled offense in the league and still finished as a low-end QB1 on the season – despite playing 15 games. Let’s take a look at a recap of the 49ers skill injuries this season:
- RB Christian McCaffrey – On IR Weeks 1-9 (Achilles), Week 14-18 (PCL)
- WR Deebo Samuel – Missed Week 3 (Calf)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk – Torn ACL+ in Week 7
- TE George Kittle – Missed Weeks 3 & 11 (Hamstring)
- LT Trent Williams – Only played in 10 games
Anyone would have struggled with that list.
Purdy also missed Week 15 with an injury to his throwing shoulder, and by that point in the season, the 49ers offensive line was literally being duct-taped together with practice squad players signed from other teams.
While we don’t consider Purdy a rushing QB, this lack of skill players and protection forced him to run more this season, presenting a floor we didn’t know he had, with 21% of his fantasy points stemming from rushing. With a lot of contractual questions to address in SF, it’s yet to be seen who will remain on this offense next season (cough.. Deebo). What we do know is that Brock Purdy is going to be extended, and will be Kyle Shanahan’s QB for the foreseeable future, which always has value in fantasy. Purdy will likely be drafted as a fringe QB1 next year and may be a perfect buy-low candidate for SuperFlex leagues while everyone is sour on the 49ers and before this contract hits.
Is it time to say Brock Purdy is better than these guys? pic.twitter.com/bpVcC4U1tl
— Ryan Parsa (@Parsa_Ryan) January 17, 2025
13. Justin Herbert | Chargers
Age: 26.8 | ADP: 11.03 / QB16
17 games – 332/504 for 3870/23/3 passing – 69/306/2 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 13
1st Half: 14 / 2nd Half: 16
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 0% | 25% | 56% |
Now, I know everyone’s recency bias will tell them that Justin Herbert stinks and can’t win big games; however, we’re talking fantasy football, and our big games happen from weeks 15-17.
Also, Justin Herbert doesn’t stink.
Yes, he had four INTs in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, but he only had three INTs in the 18 games prior (first in the league). In fact, despite all of the reasons everyone jumped ship, he took a new Head Coach, new OC, a “run-first mentality,” and a rookie, second-round slot WR to post the:
- Highest QBR of his career
- Highest Yards per Attempt of his career
- Most Rush Attempts of his career & was
- PFF’s fourth-overall-rated QB on the season (behind only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen)
This is a guy who has been a top-12 fantasy QB his entire career, and if you have truly watched any of his games over the past five years, you would know he is an amazing player. Sure, the first month of the season had the haters running victory laps, but after the Week 5 bye, this offense opened up, and the team was put on his back. In fact, from Week 8 on, he had eight QB1 finishes, second only to Lamar.
I’ve written a lot about Justin Herbert over the past calendar year. I’ve written “buy low” articles for dynasty leagues and mentioned his name several times in my weekly 2QB & SuperFlex articles – and with a QB13 finish on the year, I will happily double down on everything I’ve said.
Herbert is an elite QB in this league who finally has a real coaching staff around him. I’m not sure why that has been twisted into such a bad thing, but with $65 million (sixth) in cap space next year, we can expect Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to continue to add weapons and provide protection in the trenches.
“Find yourself someone who loves you the way Jim Harbaugh loves Justin Herbert.” – Jason Moore
Justin Herbert has surpassed 20,000 career passing yards, becoming the 5th fastest and 3rd youngest QB to reach the milestone. #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/Ysao1YENwN
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) December 15, 2024
14. Caleb Williams | Bears
Age: 23.1 | ADP: 9.03/QB12
17 games – 351/562 for 3541/20/6 passing – 82/483/0 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 16
1st Half: 18 / 2nd Half: 17
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 19% | 31% | 56% |
With the first overall pick of the 2024 Draft, Caleb Williams was handed a team that Justin Fields (or any other first-round pick ever) could only dream of. Yet, despite a roster loaded with talent, a five-win season was not the fantasy (or real-life) finish Bears fans had hoped for – and watching Jayden Daniels drop 45 on the number one seed is almost poetic.
Despite Williams famously telling punter Tory Taylor that he’s “not going to punt much,” that is precisely what he did, finishing second in the league with 82 punts. We certainly saw flashes early on, but those have been overshadowed by the firings of Chicago’s Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and, subsequently, ten straight losses.
With five top-six fantasy finishes, we know the sky is the limit for Caleb; however, there is still a lot of (real football) growth and development that will need to take place for him to reach it. Caleb took 68 sacks over the 2024 season, ranking third all-time. He had a 69% catchable target rate, ranking 44th of 47 qualified players. He had 41 throw-aways, which was 11 more than the next QB. These qualities will need to be cleaned up, and I’d go so far as to add an intangible one of publicly isolating himself whenever things aren’t going well.
Go watch any sports documentary. The greats (Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning) all faced adversity, but when they did, they used it as fuel and motivation to bring their game to another level. We’ll see if Caleb Williams is one of those guys, but with (former Lions OC) Ben Johnson being formally announced as the new Head Coach of the Bears, you have to be excited about his future in Chicago.
You could open a art gallery and call it “Caleb Williams on the bench during a loss” pic.twitter.com/4mtPKQScpM
— JAYTEE (@210Sooner) September 16, 2024
15. Geno Smith | Seahawks
Age: 34.2 | ADP: Undrafted
17 games – 407/578 for 4320/21/15 passing – 53/272/2 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 22
1st Half: 16 / 2nd Half: 23
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 0% | 25% | 50% |
“Good, not great” feels like the simplest way to sum up Geno Smith‘s fantasy season.
Despite a midseason surge, the Seahawks were unable to make a final playoff push, even with Geno setting career-highs in wins (10), passing yards (4,320) and completion percentage (70.4%). He ranked fourth among all QBs in completion percentage over expectation and was PFF’s ninth-ranked player at the position on the season. While the infamous 12th-Man will surely let Geno shoulder all the blame, he was playing behind PFF’s 31st-ranked offensive line and was asked to play at an elite level thanks to a bottom-five rushing unit in total yards.
What hampered Geno’s fantasy performance was a lack of TDs (and lots of INTs), with a 3.6% TD rate and just three total games of multiple TDs between weeks 1-15. While this led to a middling fantasy output, it also gave us the official breakout season for (anyone waiting patiently on) Jaxon Smith-Njigba while, unfortunately, both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett faded into the darkness.
The future is yet to be determined for Geno, who still has one season remaining on his contract in Seattle. With a new coaching staff, we can expect the Seahawks to look to the future in one way or another, but even if he does not return to Seattle, he has proven a capable journeyman and streamer-level status for fantasy.
GENO SMITH TAKES IT HIMSELF FOR THE LEAD WITH 12 SECONDS LEFT!!! 🤯😱
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/t6h8idcqjg— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 18, 2024
17. Jordan Love | Packers
Age: 26.2 | ADP: 7.11 / QB10
15 games – 268/425 for 3389/25/11 – 25/83/1 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 15
1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 20
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 7% | 21% | 43% |
After a QB5 finish and an elite-level performance in the 2023 playoffs, many of us were predicting another top-10 season for Jordan Love, however, injuries and an epic second-half finish from Josh Jacobs would deprive us of that.
For the first seven weeks of the season (despite missing two weeks with a knee injury), we felt fantastic with Love, ranking QB3 in PPG and posting an incredible 8% TD rate. The second half of the season would be a different story entirely, as he played through a groin injury in Weeks 8 and 9, and somewhere around this point, there was a switch in team dynamics. The Packers became one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, propelling Josh Jacobs to the RB5 finish on the season, who honestly looked like the only competent (albeit healthy) weapon this offense had in their playoff loss.
It’s important in these moments to recognize when a QB is playing poorly versus what their fantasy output is. This is an extremely TD-dependent game we play, and with Jacobs accounting for most of their second-half output, there wasn’t much left for Love. This does not mean he was playing poorly, just more efficient, and we should all remember there were a few weeks of discussions about Green Bay being the most dangerous team in the playoff run.
Without a true WR1, Green Bay is the most evenly dispersed receiving core in the NFL and the only team that did not have a single player above 20% in target share. Perhaps they’ll look to add a veteran to their room next season (with Christian Watson likely to miss most of the season), but regardless, I will be happy to buy back in on Love in late rounds next season, assuming a severe dip in ADP.
Jordan Love in his last three games 🔥
857 YDS
8 TD
0 INT
3-0 pic.twitter.com/Mxl0E7HSSG— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 4, 2023
19. CJ Stroud | Texans
Age: 23.2 | ADP: 4.10/QB5
17 games – 336/532 for 3727/20/12 passing – 52/233/0 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 26
1st Half: 20 / 2nd Half: 28
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 0% | 6% | 63% |
While we were quick to call out Kyler Murray, perhaps the biggest “bust” of the season was CJ Stroud. The combination of age, hype, and skill had Stroud going off the board among and/or above some of the elite options, and he simply failed to deliver at any point of the season.
Fortunately, you had the UDK this season – so you recognized him from our “Bust” list and obviously avoided him at ADP.
Injuries can be partly to blame, with Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell all missing significant stretches, but this was not the step forward that many were projecting in year two of the CJ Stroud era. Play-calling from Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik was also an expressed concern, with the Texans offense ranking 20th in EPA per play and seemingly always putting Stroud in a negative game script on second and third downs.
We should note that the Texans did make it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, and with a healthy trio at WR, this could be a completely different-looking offense; however, it’s hard to see Stroud ever reaching high-end QB1 status without using his legs (which we did see a bit more in the playoffs). With only one “good” game and more than half ranking as “busts,” he will be extremely difficult to project in the top-12 entering 2025.
Regardless of his fantasy performance, let’s all remember that CJ Stroud is a leader, mentor and one of the good ones.
Despite the tough season ending loss and being clearly hobbled,the incredible class act that is C.J. Stroud still decided to take photos with some fans & even give high 5’s out to some Chiefs fans while he walked into the locker room.
Incredible person CJ is #HOUvsKC
🎥 @TWDTV1 pic.twitter.com/Wvv7ucFeOK— Andrew Jerell Jones, Luke 1:37 (BlueSky too now) (@sluggahjells) January 19, 2025
20. Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins
Age: 26.8 | ADP: 9.10 / QB13
11 games –291/399 for 2867/19/7 passing – 17/49/0 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 17
1st Half: 29 / 2nd Half: 14
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 9% | 36% | 45% |
Tua Tagovailoa and the entire Dolphins offense took a hit this season, playing through injuries and just never seeming to reach the high-flying video game numbers we saw last year.
While he led the league in completion percentage (72.9%), he was unable to replicate the splash plays, with 65% of his attempts under 10 yards and just one pass of 20+ air yards from Week 12 on. It’s unclear how much Tyreek Hill‘s wrist injury contributed to their downfall this season, but Mike McDaniel recognized his team’s inability to hit those deep shots and chose to rely on screen passes, the quickness of his skill positions, and, of course, Jonnu Smith.
With 45% of his starts deemed as “Good” or “Great,” Tua should still present weekly streaming upside next season, and it has become very clear that this offense does not function without him.
📈 Miami Dolphins offense with Tua Tagovailoa in 2024:
➖ 2.43 points per drive (9th)
➖ 24.8% touchdown rate (9th)
➖ 35.3 yards per drive (8th)📉 Miami Dolphins offense without Tua Tagovailoa in 2024:
➖ 1.10 points per drive (32nd)
➖ 9.6% touchdown rate (32nd)
➖ 21.8… pic.twitter.com/3ky6eSuMHF— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) January 21, 2025
23. Anthony Richardson | Colts
Age: 22.6 | ADP: 5.06/QB6
11 games –126/264 for 1814/8/12 passing – 86/499/6 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 14
1st Half: 27 / 2nd Half: 5
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 18% | 36% | 64% |
It was some combination of a roller coaster and a nightmare for Anthony Richardson this season, who missed four games due to injury, was benched for two others, and simply underperformed for most of the rest.
Out of 43 qualifying QBs with 150+ pass attempts in 2024:
- #1 in aDOT
- #1 in Deep Throw Rate
- #43 in Passer Rating
- #43 in Completion Percentage
- #43 in Adjusted Comp Percentage
- #43 in Off Target Rate
- #43 in CheckDown Rate
Richardson came into the league as one of the rawest prospects in a long time, but after posting a 10.0 RAS score, he skyrocketed up draft boards as the most athletic player the position has ever seen (ahead of Cam Newton). We’ve seen the ceiling performances (even Week 1), and we know the sky is the limit, but AR will always hold injury risk and likely have a short leash next season. If his ADP falls into the mid-teens next season, he will certainly be worth a stash, as we know he holds week and league-winning upside.
https://x.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1881764970880520245
25. Bryce Young | Panthers
Age: 23.4 | ADP: Undrafted
14 games – 234/384 for 2403/15/9 passing – 43/249/6 rushing
2024 Consistency Rank: 18
1st Half: 29 / 2nd Half: 14
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 9% | 18% | 64% |
We can keep this simple. The first half of the season was bad for Bryce Young, which, of course, led to his benching. But over the second half of the season, you had to be happy to see the game slow down for him and the Panthers to play some competitive football.
As we mentioned with Caleb Williams above, the former first-overall pick has been put into an impossible-to-succeed position in Carolina, with the worst defense in the league and very few skill players around him. There are many question marks at WR heading into next year, but I’ll be rooting for Dave Canales to find more talent for this offense and build off this year’s finish for a potential confidence and career resurgence for Bryce Young.
Bryce Young today:
275 total yards
5 TOUCHDOWNS
0 turnovers
HE IS HIM pic.twitter.com/6b8NzAvoTJ
— The Cat Shack (@NCCatShack) January 5, 2025
Comments
BY FAR my favorite writer to recap these episodes!! Some great info, and easily digestible! Excellent stuff, as always, Nick!
Not associated with this article, just wanted to thank you guys for your draft rankings this year, which landed me T. Etienne and T. Hill with my first two picks! Needless to say I was on my way to a truly crappy year and had to scramble just to stay out of the toilet bowl in our league. One bitten, twice shy!