The TRUTH: RBs in 2022 Part 2 (Fantasy Football)
The fantasy off-season is a time for reflection, and what better way to reflect on the 2022 season than by taking a deep dive into the RBs who finished outside of the top-10 on the season? Andy, Mike, and Jason broke down this group on the January 31 episode of the podcast.
Before we jump back into the RB rankings, a quick reminder about how the TRUTH Data algorithm considers performances from the season using a half-point PPR scoring format:
- Great Games are more than 21 points
- Good Games are more than 12 points
- Bust Games are fewer than 7 points
- Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
As I mentioned in the top-10 RBs article, RB scoring was down across the board but may have been felt the most by the more fringe RB players. The average RB2 score (RBs 13-24) was just 12.2 fantasy points, which is just above the “good” metric for the algorithm.
Possibly the biggest void for RB2s came from lower passing numbers from the league as a whole. In 2022, there were only 14 RBs that caught more than 40 passes, 11 less than in 2021. While a lack of pass-catching from RBs still affected who finished in the top-10, possibly the biggest void it created in the fantasy landscape was with the pass-catching specialists that can add fantasy value like Chase Edmonds, Kareem Hunt, and JD McKissic.
11 Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots
2022 Consistency Rank: 16
1st Half: 10 / 2nd Half: 30
17 games: 210/1040/5 rushing – 88 targets for 69/421/1 receiving
ADP: 8.09/RB36
Defenses: -6.93 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.72 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 12% | 47% | 29% |
The breakout season for Rhamondre Stevenson was a fruitful one for fantasy managers who invested in the Patriots back during draft season. After being an unpredictable asset as a rookie, Stevenson saw a 10-game stretch in 2022 where he was a top-24 RB. Whenever the Patriots leaned on Stevenson after Damien Harris went down in Week 5, the uptick in workload made him a top-12 RB for four weeks straight. From Week 3 on, Stevenson was the RB8 on the season.
It was his heavy usage in New England’s passing game that set Stevenson apart. Stevenson was one of five RBs over the last five seasons with 69 or more receptions while averaging 4.9 yards per catch. The other backs to hit that mark were the likes of Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. It would be a perfect year for Stevenson had he finished the season strong, but he had RB63 and RB43 finishes in the last two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.
Looking ahead, Damien Harris is a free agent and shouldn’t be expected back in New England, but Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris got a decent amount of looks in the last month of the season, so that will be worth monitoring ahead of 2023.
12 Joe Mixon | Bengals
2022 Consistency Rank: 11
1st Half: 12 / 2nd Half: 28
14 games: 210/814/7 rushing – 75 targets for 60/441/2 receiving
ADP: 1.10/RB7
Defenses: +3.93 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +11.73 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 7% | 47% | 13% |
After finishing as the RB3 in 2021, there were high hopes for Joe Mixon coming into the 2022 season for a repeat performance. However, a TD plague limited Mixon’s high-end upside this year. While Mixon still managed to get into the end zone six times during the fantasy season, four of his rushing TDs came in one game, so the consistent ability to be in the RB1 range was much more difficult. In fact, Mixon had just four finishes inside the top-12 on the year, one time less than he finished outside of the top-24. What may be more troubling is that Mixon finished 2022 with the second-most carries inside the 10-yard line, but converted those into paydirt five times.
Overall, Mixon being involved in the high-powered Bengal offense should still be worth the risk going forward. Mixon’s primary backup, Samaje Perine is a free agent, so it’s worth keeping an eye on what Cincinnati chooses to do alongside Mixon whether it’s in free agency or in the NFL Draft.
13 Miles Sanders | Eagles
2022 Consistency Rank: 25
1st Half: 14 / 2nd Half: 39
17 games: 259/1269/11 rushing – 26 targets for 20/78/0 receiving
ADP: 7.09/RB31
Defenses: +0.43 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.3 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 18% | 41% | 47% |
Miles Sanders pulled the reverse Keenan Allen and told fantasy managers to not draft him heading into this season just to start the year as a top-20 RB in six of his first eight games. Being a large part of the Eagles’ offense almost assured that Sanders would see high-end opportunities on a weekly basis. Sanders saw the 4th-most red zone touches in the league which he turned into 10 TDs. That number could have been even higher if not for Jalen Hurts’ 13 rushing TDs in the red zone.
As a pending free agent, Sanders picked a great season to have his rushing total eclipse 1200 yards for the first time. Whether or not Philadelphia feels he’s worth bringing back into the fold next season may determine how much potential Sanders has to find himself on this list again next season.
14 Najee Harris | Steelers
2022 Consistency Rank: 18
1st Half: 38 / 2nd Half: 4
17 games: 272/1034/7 rushing – 53 targets for 41/229/3 receiving
ADP: 1.07/RB6
Defenses: +1.01 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.09 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 6% | 35% | 12% |
A fantastic rookie season that saw Najee Harris finish as the RB4 could only set the fantasy world up for disappointment in 2022. Harris’ high price tag during draft season left fantasy managers wanting more to start the year, but as the Steelers’ new-look offense found some footing, Harris seemed to get healthy and his fantasy value returned. From Week 10 to the end of the season, Harris was the RB5, including RB14, RB18, and RB7 finishes during the fantasy playoffs.
The hope going forward for fantasy purposes is that Kenny Pickett’s growth from his rookie year will help Harris’ 2023 look more like the back half of 2022. Harris will turn 25 before the end of the spring in just his third season, so if there’s a prime window for him, chances are we’ll see it sooner rather than later.
15 Leonard Fournette | Buccaneers
2022 Consistency Rank: 15
1st Half: 11 / 2nd Half: 31
16 games: 189/668/3 rushing – 83 targets for 73/523/3 receiving
ADP: 3.01/RB14
Defenses: -2.92 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.02 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 7% | 40% | 13% |
Leonard Fournette was a king of the dump-off in 2022, finishing behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey in RB receptions and receiving yards on the year. However, Fournette wasn’t able to convert those receptions into TDs at an alarmingly low rate. Fournette’s six total TDs (three rushing and three receiving) were the second-fewest for a back that saw 70 or more receptions since 2014.
Fournette was solid for fantasy managers throughout the first half of the year, finishing inside the top-24 seven times before Tampa Bay’s bye. After Week 11 though, Fournette was just the RB21 and only surpassed the 12-point mark once.
Going forward, Fournette’s fantasy future may rely on finding a new home, since the Buccaneers could be heading for a rebuild and can save some cap space by cutting bait. If Fournette can find a future home (possibly the only Florida team he hasn’t played for?) with a better overall situation than what Tampa Bay projects to be in 2023, there could still be some fantasy-relevant years ahead given the right situation for the Dump Truck.
16 Kenneth Walker III | Seahawks
2022 Consistency Rank: 14
1st Half: 19 / 2nd Half: 12
15 games: 228/1050/9 rushing – 35 targets for 27/165/0 receiving
ADP: 8.11/RB37
Defenses: -6.14 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.04 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 13% | 47% | 27% |
Finally, a rookie finds his way onto the board with Kenneth Walker III taking the reins in Seattle. Walker was the beneficiary of Rashaad Penny’s season-ending injury in Week 5. Before he missed time due to an injury of his own in Week 12, Walker was the RB5 after Penny’s injury, including RB3 and RB2 finishes in Weeks 7 and 9. Walker’s success wasn’t just due to a barren backfield behind him though, creating plenty of big plays with 17 runs of 15+ yards, the third most among RBs and the most for a rookie since some guy named Saquon Barkley.
Seattle will have some decisions to make about the future of their offense this off-season, but Walker’s success should have filled a void for them that’s been left since Marshawn Lynch’s retirement. Walker was just one of eight rookie RBs since 2011 with 1,000 yards, nine TDs, and at least 35 targets. The biggest question will be: how much of a draft investment do you have to make to get the biggest piece of the Peach Cobbler’s running game pie in 2023?
David Eulitt/Getty Images
17 Travis Etienne Jr. | Jaguars
2022 Consistency Rank: 23
1st Half: 18 / 2nd Half: 34
17 games: 220/1125/5 rushing – 45 targets for 35/316/0 receiving
ADP: 4.04/RB17
Defenses: -4.64 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.94 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 18% | 35% | 35% |
Probably the most difficult evaluation to answer, “What do we have here?” involves Travis Etienne Jr. After missing his entire rookie season due to injury, Etienne seemed to operate in streaks in 2022, which made having him in your roster a difficult call. Etienne was the RB14 from Week 5 on, including a three-week stretch where he finished as the RB9, RB7, and RB3 from Weeks 7 to 9. Still, Etienne also had weeks where he was on the field plenty but wasn’t able to produce for fantasy purposes.
Jacksonville seems to be a team that’s ascending and could continue to take steps forward in 2023, especially offensively. For Etienne, the next step will be becoming more involved in the passing game. In 2022, Etienne saw a target on just 12.7% of his routes run, the second worst among RBs with at least 40 targets.
18 Alvin Kamara | Saints
2022 Consistency Rank: 26
1st Half: 15 / 2nd Half: 37
15 games: 223/897/2 rushing – 77 targets for 57/490/2 receiving
ADP: 1.11/RB8
Defenses: -7.9 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.6 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 7% | 33% | 33% |
The Super Kamara fantasy managers who once rode to titles may be a thing of the past. Alvin Kamara was anything but his old self for most of the 2022 season, finishing with as many “bust” games as he had “good” games according to the TRUTH algorithm. While he did have a strong stretch from Week 5 to Week 11 where he finished inside the top-24 for all but one game, Kamara’s lack of production from a TD standpoint left fantasy managers wanting more. Over the last two seasons, Kamara has just six total rushing TDs and his receiving production has been nearly cut in half, averaging just 53 receptions in that same span.
Going forward, it’s difficult getting a pulse on how to value Kamara for fantasy purposes. The Saints are one of the more cap-strapped teams in the league, and Kamara’s large contract could make him hard to shop via trade. When you add in his looming legal issues heading to court and possible suspension in 2023, a “wait and see” approach is going to be the only way forward when figuring out what he can bring to the table next season for fantasy.
19 Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys
2022 Consistency Rank: 8
1st Half: 23 / 2nd Half: 3
15 games: 231/876/12 rushing – 23 targets for 17/92/0 receiving
ADP: 3.04/RB15
Defenses: -8.10 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.00 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 0% | 64% | 14% |
The Ballers covered Ezekiel Elliott in more depth along with Tony Pollard in the “Top-10 RBs” episode, but I’ll still give him his own spot here. While Pollard was the new hotness, Zeke quietly had a really nice season for fantasy purposes. Even without any “great” games, Elliott was still the RB9 from Week 11 on and didn’t finish outside the top-24 for Weeks 6 to 17. Zeke’s consistency can be partially attributed to his 11 rushing TDs in those nine games.
Going forward though, how the Cowboys choose to handle their RB room will be something to monitor. Zeke has reportedly said he’d be willing to take a pay cut from the $10.9 million dollars he’s due in 2023, which could open the door for Tony Pollard’s return as well.
20 James Conner | Cardinals
2022 Consistency Rank: 9
1st Half: 40 / 2nd Half: 1
13 games: 183/782/7 rushing – 58 targets for 46/300/1 receiving
ADP: 3.05/RB16
Defenses: +4.27 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.64 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 15% | 62% | 23% |
Wrapping up the top-20 RBs is James Conner. Repeating 2021’s 18 total TDs and RB5 overall finish was going to be a tough task for Conner, but when he was healthy in 2022, Conner was a valuable fantasy asset. From Week 9 on, Conner was the RB5 and saw 34% of the team’s rushing attempts and targets in that span. Those are workloads that rival the fantasy likes of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffrey.
Heading into 2023, the Cardinals’ offense may be a “sell” due to Kyler Murray being expected to miss significant time after his ACL tear in December. However, that may be a good thing for the educated fantasy manager. Without Kyler Murray in the lineup this season, James Conner saw nearly eight more opportunities per game and averaged almost seven more fantasy points. Assuming the Cardinals don’t bring in significant competition via free agency or the draft, James Conner could be a great value heading into 2023.
Notable exclusions from the Top-20 RBS
27 Dameon Pierce | Texans
2022 Consistency Rank: 19
1st Half: 29 / 2nd Half: 9
13 games: 220/939/4 rushing – 39 targets for 30/165/1 receiving
ADP: 7.04/RB29
Defenses: -4.67 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.07 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 8% | 46% | 23% |
Texans’ rookie RB, Dameon Pierce, is worth mentioning as a player outside the top-20 to remember going forward. Pierce fully took over Houston’s backfield in Week 3 and rattled off seven-straight weeks of top-24 RB finishes, including four top-12 weeks. There’s a good chance Pierce isn’t in the honorable mention category if he didn’t miss the final four games of the regular season, but there’s still plenty of risk for fantasy managers going into 2023. The Texans have plenty of draft picks to really start their rebuild, and any high draft picks toward an RB could make Pierce’s value plummet from a workhorse to an ambiguous backfield very quickly.
35 Jonathan Taylor | Colts
2022 Consistency Rank: 19
1st Half: 29 / 2nd Half: 9
11 games: 192/861/4 rushing – 40 targets for 28/143/0 receiving
ADP: 1.01/RB1
Defenses: -6.41 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.43 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 18% | 45% | 36% |
Possibly the least likely expected to be outside of the top-20 RBs in 2022 was Jonathan Taylor. The consensus 1.01 in most drafts ahead of 2022, Taylor’s success this year fell victim to a combination of injuries paired with being on a bad team overall. It was nice to see Taylor return to the fantasy asset managers intended him to be from Weeks 10 to 13 when he strung together a handful of strong finishes, but I’m not sure it was enough to forgive the disappointment caused as the first pick in the draft.
Indianapolis may be heading for a full hit of the “reset button” this off-season, which may mean suitors could come calling for Taylor’s asking price, something I don’t think anyone in the fantasy football world will argue with.
42 Breece Hall | Jets
2022 Consistency Rank: 4
1st Half: 7 / 2nd Half: n/a
7 games: 80/463/4 rushing – 31 targets for 19/218/1 receiving
ADP: 4.06/RB20
Defenses: -0.60 vs Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.10 at Home
| Great Games | Good Games | Bust Games |
| 14% | 86% | 14% |
With a tear in Jason Moore’s eye, Breece Hall coming in at RB42 on the year is just a reminder of what could have been. Hall was turning into a fantasy monster prior to his ACL tear in Week 7. From Week 2 to Week 7, Hall was a top-24 RB every week including three top-12 finishes. Still, fantasy managers will have to ignore the many “ahead of schedule” reports for Hall this off-season and let the Jets’ roster moves do more of the talking before investing in what’s sure to be at least a 3rd round pick in 2023 redrafts.
Comments
No mention of Allgier!