The Fantasy Footballers’ 10 Things to Remember for 2024
On the final day of February, Andy, Mike, and Jason graced our listeners with one of the most crucial and pivotal episodes of the year (leap year). As March unfolds, fantasy football managers across the globe emerge from their post-Super Bowl hibernation, ready to embark on their championship pursuit in the upcoming season.
With the NFL combine beginning, a new crop of prospects eagerly anticipates selection to your fantasy teams. With that said, it is equally significant to reflect on the preceding season before shifting focus to the next. Gear up to jog your memory as we present the Top 10 Things to Remember for 2024!
This episode is a specifically useful tool for fantasy managers to chew on, digest, and process throughout the offseason as they prepare to embark on their 2024 championship pursuit.
10. “QB Loyalty” gets you zero fantasy points- Andy
After years of hesitance and resistance to drafting quarterbacks early, there has been a shift from the tried-and-true late-round QB strategy. The resurgence began after the standout performances of Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes, dominating the quarterback landscape two seasons ago. This success reminded Andy of Aaron Rodgers‘ multiple seasons finishing as the QB1, making early quarterback picks seem like a secure path to a top finish. However, committing to an early-drafted quarterback can be a double-edged sword, as last season’s experience with Patrick Mahomes showed.
Selecting a quarterback early creates a season-long commitment for many, with the risk taken during the draft looming large. Andy highlights the potential pitfalls of this approach, emphasizing that loyalty to underperforming quarterbacks with big names can cost fantasy managers crucial matchups. Andy recalls the warning sign that Russell Wilson presented two seasons ago, illustrating how high expectations may not align with a player’s actual performance.
Jason points to the Dak Prescott vs. Tua Tagovailoa debate from last season as a prime example of a tale of two halves. Around Week 5 of the season, several fantasy managers thought they had a solid grip on their teams and knew everything that they needed to know about their rosters. At this point in time, Tagovailoa was the QB5 on the season, while Prescott was close to useless. However, Tagovailoa’s early-season success dramatically shifted, while Prescott ended up being a major contributor to several championship-winning teams.
The critical takeaway is to remember the importance of being able to adapt when necessary at the quarterback position. While it is not necessary to bench your stud quarterback after one bad game, Andy suggests being open to pivoting if a better option arises on the waiver wire or your bench. A prime example of this was when teams chose to continue to start Patrick Mahomes over potential waiver wire options like CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy. This strategic adaptability could be the key to maximizing your team’s potential and avoiding the pitfalls of sticking with underperforming early-drafted quarterbacks.
9. Don’t Get Cocky- Mike
Building on Andy’s previous advice, Mike emphasizes the importance for fantasy managers to avoid becoming overconfident or complacent. Even if your team appears to be leading the league early on, continuous improvement is crucial. Becoming complacent with initial success is a surefire path to failure. Simply having a standout quarterback or tight end does not warrant overlooking opportunities to potentially enhance your roster with backup options. This applies to waiver wire additions as well as trade opportunities. Even if not immediately necessary, they can bolster your bench, which could prove to be crucial later on in the season. Imagine forgoing the chance to acquire players like Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, or Tank Dell last season simply because you thought your team was sufficient. This not only hinders your roster from reaching its full potential but also allows the rest of your league to capitalize on your cockiness and negligence.
An example Mike regrets from the previous season involves his decision to trade for Tua Tagovailoa after his strong start. Despite recognizing Dak Prescott‘s potential for a stellar second half due to strength of schedule, Mike felt content enough with his quarterback situation to stick with Tagovailoa, allowing someone else to snatch up Prescott. As Andy’s tip above highlighted, this decision did not lead to a favorable outcome. Although Mike typically avoids rostering a second quarterback, he now wishes he had made an exception. Jason also shared a significant example of passing up the opportunity to trade for Michael Pittman at a favorable price because he viewed his roster as sufficient. The reality is no team can be deemed “good enough” until it secures the league championship and can boast about it throughout the offseason.
Mike has adopted a new strategy, feeling more at ease leaving the draft with two tight ends when the opportunity arises. Once considered a wasted roster spot, he now views it as an opportunity to select two players with upside at a challenging position to fill. This approach allows him to assess their performance after the first game of the season and make roster adjustments from there. While there is a risk, such as drafting players like Chigoziem Okonkwo or Juwan Johnson who failed to live up to expectations, there is also the potential to secure players like Jake Ferguson or Sam LaPorta. Mike emphasizes the notion that your team is not as strong as you might think, and there is always room for improvement. Given the unpredictability of injuries or a player’s unforeseen rough stretch, being prepared for the unexpected is key, prompting the need to enhance your roster proactively.
8. “Good Ain’t Bad”- Jason
Foregoing the chance to reiterate his legendary advice about not “smelling your own farts,” Jason takes a different approach this year, urging the FootClan to embrace the mantra of “good ain’t bad.” He highlights the misconception that young standout players, already proven on the field, will fade away simply because their teams acquire additional talent. This scenario unfolded notably with running backs Kenneth Walker and Travis Etienne, as the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars invested high draft capital in the position last year. The panic surrounding the fantasy outlook for Walker and Etienne proved to be a significant overreaction. Despite the substantial draft investment in rookies Tank Bigbsy and Zach Charbonnet, both established stars remained workhorses throughout the season.
Jason illustrates his point by mentioning Kyren Williams as a potential candidate for a similar situation in the upcoming season. Despite potential competition coming in through the draft, Jason advises against being deterred, emphasizing that depth is a constant need in football. He encourages listeners not to shy away from drafting exceptional players just because their teams bring in competition through the draft or free agency. Good ain’t bad, remember that.
7. Lose a trade, win a title.- Andy
Andy openly acknowledges his trade addiction, a sentiment familiar to many in any league that he has been a part of. Through his extensive studies in the art of the trade, Andy has observed how the fear of losing a trade often obstructs the pursuit of the ultimate prize. Regardless of whether it is a matter of pride or a fear of being on the losing end, Andy urges the FootClan to shift their focus to what it truly means to “win a trade.” Winning, for Andy, revolves around acquiring the most valuable player who can genuinely make a real difference in the season.
Highlighting two players in Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb whom he labeled as coveted players during draft season, Andy emphasizes his willingness to go beyond initial comfort levels in trade offers to secure their services for his teams. He stresses that too many teams fixate on minor details, like having the last word or demanding a cherry on top to make them feel better about their potential return. However, Andy’s goal is not the cherry on top. He wants the entire hot fudge sundae that only one team gets to experience at the end of the season. Andy encourages listeners to trust their convictions about players who could be true difference-makers, even if it means facing criticism for seemingly overpaying in a trade. In the end, if acquiring that coveted player positions you for championship success, the perceived sacrifice becomes entirely worthwhile. Risk it to get the biscuit, throw the kitchen sink at them, go full Kevin Costner with your trade offer, and go get your guy.
6. If the risk is already built into the ADP, don’t be afraid.- Mike
Mike highlights a prevalent trend in fantasy football where managers hesitate to draft specific players, fearing potential risks, despite the fact that these risks are already factored into their draft cost. Fantasy football operates like an economic model, where player draft stocks fluctuate based on surrounding news. When fear arises regarding a certain player, their Average Draft Position (ADP) typically plummets in response to the negative news. Unfortunately, several teams often shy away from drafting these players, fearing being incorrect in their predictions, even though the risk is already factored into their draft cost.
Mike illustrates this trend with examples from past seasons, like Stefon Diggs, a fantasy standout with the Minnesota Vikings who sparked widespread panic when traded to the Buffalo Bills. Concerns arose due to Buffalo’s perceived mediocre quarterback situation with doubts about Josh Allen‘s potential. Consequently, Diggs’ ADP plummeted to the sixth round, drafted as the WR27. As the season unfolded, Diggs not only dispelled doubts but had a breakout campaign alongside his star quarterback. Diggs, already known as a stellar receiver, had a remarkably low draft cost due to initial overreactions. This foresight echoes Andy’s prediction for Mike Evans in the previous season, labeling him a “My Guy” despite widespread concerns.
Offering another instance, Mike highlights the misperception of Ja’Marr Chase before his rookie season. Initial offseason reports portrayed him negatively, with comical mentions of struggles adapting to the size of an NFL football. Consequently, he was drafted in the seventh round as the WR30. However, he concluded the year as the WR5, averaging an impressive 15.50 fantasy points per game. Identifying a similar scenario for the upcoming season, the guys point to Jameson Williams. Despite a challenging start to his career, he is currently an undeniable value as a ninth-round draft pick. Given his evident potential, it seems unwise to overlook him at his current draft position. Even if he fails to fully deliver, the risk appears justified for the potential reward at this calculated price. Do not shy away from a risky investment if you can capitalize on buying the dip.
5. Draft Enigmaticbacks- Jason
Don’t worry… I shared your confusion on this one, but fortunately, we have Jason Moore, the creator and founder of Enigmaticbacks, to shed light on what they entail. Jason states that drafting running backs from enigmatic backfields can be daunting, given the uncertainty of who will emerge as the primary starter in such crowded and uncertain scenarios. However, he emphasizes that fearing the unknown and letting others navigate these uncertain backfields for potential gems is not the optimal approach. Aligning with Mike’s earlier advice, these complex and unpredictable backfields already factor in the inherent risk in their draft cost. Jason suggests that within these backfields, there are always emerging assets waiting to be discovered.
Some examples of Enigmaticbacks success and horror stories from last season:
- Cam Akers (Cameron): Drafted as the RB21 → RB68
- Kyren Williams: Undrafted → RB6
- De’Von Achane: Drafted as the RB42 → RB24
- Raheem Mostert: Drafted as the RB45 → RB2
Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
- Antonio Gibson: Drafted as the RB33 → RB41
- Brian Robinson Jr.: Drafted as the RB36 → RB23 (He was the RB4 through Week 11)
Take your shot on the player that you have the most conviction will break out in the backfield and do not look back. The downside is potentially selecting the wrong player, a minimal risk with a late-round draft pick. On the flip side, you might secure a starting running back at an excellent value. Andy recommends not just picking any running back from enigmatic backfields but focusing on those from teams with a proven history of successful running games.
4. The Little Things Kill- Andy
Alexa, play “Little Things” by Good Charlotte, or perhaps the Bush song Jason prefers, released a year before I was born. Andy reflects on the podcast’s remarkable achievement of reaching its tenth year, drawing parallels between its longevity and his envisioned success in the League of Record. Despite a stellar start in the league, Andy believed he was on the path to becoming the leading team for years to come. Unexpectedly, his team’s performance declined. Initially, he aimed to trust the process and persist with proven strategies. However, he soon realized that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
Instead, he chose to take a new route by identifying and keying in on the little things. To get back over the hump, he had to do a little extra free agent preparation each week, a little bit more persistence in his trade offers when seeking out key contributors, sometimes it meant paying attention to playoff schedules for players to determine buy low and sell high opportunities. All of these steps may appear tedious, but they are necessary to righting the ship and getting your team back on track. Maybe you won a few championships early in your league but have grown far too familiar with the taste of defeat in recent years. Put in the work, focus on the little things, identify a few small areas for improvement, and go win. There is no use in having the perfect cannonball if you do not first learn how to swim.
3. Dynasty WRs: Know the Thresholds- Mike
Mike shares a valuable dynasty tip that can be challenging to assess. He recommends learning how to understand the thresholds of dynasty wide receivers. When should you let go of a player you drafted with high hopes, only to see them disappoint? When is patience warranted, allowing a player like Jameson Williams room to grow? Conversely, when is it time to abandon ship, a choice many are already making with players like Quentin Johnston?
Highlighting the significance of targets is crucial as they represent an earned statistic. Ample targets signify a player’s ability to get open and the trust they have garnered from both their quarterback and coach. Merely running routes does not suffice, as some players engage in elite cardio without receiving targets. Mike provides insights, noting that, over two seasons, first-round wide receivers typically secure a 20% target per route run rate and average 1.68 yards per route run. In contrast, second-round wide receivers average about 1.55 yards per route run, while third-rounders usually achieve 1.40 yards per route run. These benchmarks serve as valuable metrics when evaluating young wide receivers, though there is still a chance that players can come back from the dead. With that said, the sole notable outlier in this regard has been Davante Adams.
Prominent wide receivers in the 2022 draft class that narrowly missed the threshold include Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, and Wan’Dale Robinson. While the latter two are likely fading into obscurity, there is still optimism for Williams, given his limited opportunities at the start of his career. Nevertheless, the odds are stacked against him. When a player falls short of these thresholds and faces a challenging rookie season, they often retain some dynasty value entering their sophomore campaign, especially if drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. However, as seen with Skyy Moore, if they endure another poor season after their rookie year, their value can diminish entirely. It is crucial to consider a player’s draft capital and production profile in their rookie season when determining whether to hold onto them or part ways before their trade value is completely diminished. This approach assists in setting realistic expectations for drafted players, recognizing the potential for a career resurgence but acknowledging the challenging odds they face.
For more information on this, here is a must-read article on The Dynasty Lifecycle of Wide Receivers, written by Marvin Elequin.
2. “Preseason Pretenders”- Jason
A big thanks to Brooks for jogging Jason’s memory about this valuable tip he crafted during the season. Jason urges the FootClan not to overreact to preseason performances. Despite having reservations about drafting Dameon Pierce throughout the offseason, preseason developments altered the original narrative that many had on him. With reports emerging that Pierce was set to be the primary pass catcher in Houston’s backfield, demonstrating excellent chemistry with CJ Stroud, many began to hop aboard the hype train. A single preseason game shifted public opinion on Pierce, making him a popular name during fantasy draft season. Ultimately, he ended up being one of the biggest busts at the position this year.
A glaring instance of preseason deception unfolded with the entire Pittsburgh Steelers‘ offense. The first-team offense scored five touchdowns on five drives during the preseason, appearing unstoppable and poised for significant improvement. Reports even suggested Kenny Pickett‘s potential leap into superstardom in his second year. However, the season unfolded VERY differently from this expectation. Good riddance, Matt Canada.
Preseason injury reports can be equally misleading. Despite initial medical indications signaling an unproductive season for Javonte Williams, the narrative shifted when he defied expectations and played in preseason games. Unfortunately, he turned out to be a disappointment this season. If you hold a strong conviction about a player or team before preseason begins, it is crucial not to let the games and hype completely alter your perspective.
1. “Remember the Turds”
Why remember the titans when you can instead remember the turds? It is a vital reminder that the aspects in your league causing dissatisfaction should not be overlooked. Instead, address and rectify them before the new season kicks off. If there are underperforming teams or rules requiring modification, ensure they are duly attended to. Tackle issues like inactive teams or those not setting lineups. Flush away the turds in your league to establish a well-functioning system. This stands as one of the offseason’s most critical aspects to keep in mind, given that the new season often approaches quicker than anticipated. While this may not be the golden rule, it certainly ranks as the brownest one.