The Case to Invest in the 2025 Patriots WR Core (Fantasy Football)
The New England Patriots were nothing more than a letdown in 2024. They went 4-13, finishing fourth in the AFC East, missing the playoffs for the third straight season. The one beacon of light from the season was rookie QB Drake Maye, who won the starting position for the Patriots and showed some signs of brilliance. In this article, we’ll be taking a closer look at the Patriots receiving core alongside Mayes’ potential progression to make the case for investing in this Pats offense.
In 2024, Maye ranked 23rd amongst all QBs in Expected Points Added (EPA), at -0.007 EPA/play. While his impact was relatively neutral, his completion percentage over expected (CPOE) stood at 2.8%, or 13th amongst all QBs. Much of Maye’s struggles can be attributed to the Patriots’ pass protection — Maye was sacked a whopping 2.6 times per game in 2024, ranking seventh amongst all QBs.
To his fortune, New England invested heavily in their offensive line in the offseason.
This included using their first-round pick on offensive lineman Will Campbell and acquiring center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses through free agency. With better protection, Maye will be able to run with the success he found last season; his high CPOE indicates there is some talent in his arm. In 2024, he surpassed Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Brock Purdy in this regard. While this doesn’t prove him to be of the same caliber, it suggests that he was likely being held back in part by his own team.
If we look at the 2024 Patriots receiving room, it is truly uninspiring. First and foremost, one WR stood out amongst the rest as the lead pass catcher, Kayshon Boutte, who saw just under 30% of the total air yards share for the entire season. The next two candidates were Hunter Henry and Tyquan Thornton, with air yard shares of just under 20%. From this alone, we can see the lopsided nature of this receiver core. While Boutte saw most of the attention from Maye, he still struggled to surpass the 30% threshold where most WR1s sit. As the Pats’ number one target, he only hauled in 589 yards and three TDs on the season, another letdown for New England.
With a lead pass catcher putting up such low numbers, you’d typically put blame on the passers themselves; however, Drake Maye‘s 4.4% TD rate says otherwise, as he sits right at the league average of 4.5%. In 2024, this team simply had a lack of talent.
So what’s changed? Outside of the offensive line bulking up, does Drake Maye have any more weapons?
One of the Patriots’ major acquisitions in the offseason was Stefon Diggs, who left the Houston Texans for New England. Last season, in his eight games played, Diggs saw just a 30% target share in Houston (see image below), overshadowed by only star wideout Nico Collins. At 30 years old, in nearly half as many games (eight compared to Boutte’s 15), Diggs put up 496 yards and three TDs in 2024. Not only does this prove Diggs’ worth, but it also shows that with a healthy season and a higher air yard share, Diggs has the pace to put up high numbers. The Ballers have him ranked at 38th among receivers, while his average draft position (ADP) in 2025 is just over 41.
Certainly view the Patriots’ WR1 as a potential steal in your redraft leagues.
Is Diggs the only new Patriots threat? Not quite. New England also drafted RB TreVeyon Henderson, who will add to the pass-catching game, as he averaged 11.1 yards per reception in college. They also grabbed Kyle Williams in the draft, who hauled in 17.1 yards per catch in his last season at Washington State alongside 14 TDs. Efton Chism has also been a standout guy from the preseason, hauling in 12 receptions for 121 receiving yards and two TDs during this year’s preseason. He officially made the 53-man roster and will certainly have potential for a breakout in 2025. While Chism and Williams are certainly not top guys to target in your drafts, they can be viewed as late-round steals in your redraft or dynasty leagues.
With an impending year two QB bump for Drake Maye and some new offensive weapons, this offense will look completely different than last season. Take your chance on the Patriots’ passing game to invest in high upside!