The Bounce-Back Boys: Three Candidates for 2024 (Fantasy Football)
Ah, the bounce-back boys. No, this isn’t the newest tween pop music sensation, it is an excellent description of some players who disappointed us in fantasy football last year but stand a good chance to turn that frown upside down this season.
Sure, it can be hard to push that draft button after what they did to you in years past, but several reasons can suggest a player will have a better season in 2024. Whether it is a timeline returning from an injury, TD regression, or a change in offensive scheme or personnel – the opportunities are vast.
Let’s take a look at some of the players that could bounce back this year and why.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
When Jaylen Waddle burst onto the scene in 2021 the future looked bright. He made his presence known immediately in Miami, finishing his rookie year as the WR16 with 1,015 yards and six TDs on 141 targets. There was definite concern in 2022 when the team added Tyreek Hill, but oddly enough, Waddle had an even better sophomore season.
While it was through sheer opportunity alone that he made his hay in his rookie season, it was through efficiency that he earned his worth in his second season. His average Y/C went from 9.8 in 2021 to 18.1 in 2022, while Hill was so successful that he finished as the WR2. Suddenly there was a big enough pie in Miami to support two top-10 WRs.
Waddle, for some reason, couldn’t keep up last year. After two great years, he was going off the board at WR11, but anyone who drafted him there was disappointed as he finished at WR34.
Check out his numbers.
| PPG | Tgts | Rec | Catch% | Yds | Y/C | TDs | YAC | aDOT |
| 11.6 | 104 | 72 | 69% | 1,014 | 14.1 | 4 | 423 | 10.4 |
After last season, Waddle is primed for a bounce-back year, currently being drafted as the WR21 in the fourth round. First, let’s remember just how breakable Waddle was last season. As a Waddle manager, I cannot tell you how many times I saw that man limp off the field. He missed three full games due to injury and played less than 70% of the snaps in eight games. Waddle needed to be held together with Scotch tape and bubble wrap in 2023, and the dip in his numbers spoke to that.
He enters 2024 rested and recovered. Not only that, but Waddle enters it with heavier pockets as well. In the offseason, he signed a three-year $84.75 million contract extension with a $76 million guaranteed, making him the fourth highest-paid WR in the league. Follow the money, right?
Jaylen Waddle Year 4 loading ⏳ @D1__JW
(via @justinallen_13) pic.twitter.com/Ad8iFN0Ips
— NFL (@NFL) May 10, 2024
The Dolphins did not add much offensively in the draft that we expect to make an immediate impact; they took Malik Washington in the sixth round and Tahj Washington in the seventh. Mike McDaniel has an offense he likes, and he sees a world where this team CAN get to the next level. Waddle’s health and usage are essential in this plan. Hill has less time in front of him than behind him, and I believe we will start seeing Waddle become the alpha in the next few years. With a lot of fantasy managers still having a sour taste in their mouths from last season, I want to pounce on that opportunity this season.
Waddle could easily finish in the top 15, and I would not be surprised if he snuck into the top 12. That is a very nice return on investment for a WR who doesn’t need to be the first one you draft.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Oh, Drake London, it’s been a tough road. London was the eighth pick in the 2022 draft and the first WR off the board, but he could only do so much. London has not yet been able to show off that talent that we saw in his final year at USC, where he had over 1,000 yards receiving and seven TDs.
It started with the QB play.
During his rookie year, London had a combo of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder throwing him the ball, and in 2023, it was mostly just Ridder. It was not good. Let’s concentrate on last season, where he had almost an entire season with Ridder. Regarding efficiency metrics, Ridder was at the bottom for most of them – he threw the fifth most INTs, had the 25th worst completion percentage, the 32nd worst PFF grade, and tied for fourth with the highest rate of turnover-worthy throws.
In his first year in the league, even with subpar QB play, London still managed 866 receiving yards on 12 Y/C. In 2023, that moved up, albeit marginally, to 905 yards and 13.1 Y/C. To be fair, this number isn’t horrendous given what London was working with – among WRs with at least 60 targets, he had the 30th most receiving yards. Not only was the QB play dodgy for London, but he was also on a team that just didn’t throw much. Atlanta had the eighth fewest passing attempts in 2023 and the fourth most rushing. Death, taxes, and Arthur Smith – we all know how that goes.
However, everything looks different in Atlanta in 2024, and London could be the main benefactor. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins as their starting QB, but they didn’t stop there. They picked up Taylor Heinicke and drafted Michael Penix Jr., making the backup situation look pretty decent in its own right. When it comes down to it, London will have a QB. And he should get the targets. We will see the offense spread more with an increase of 3WR sets on the field, and London should finally be able to showcase his size and speed.
Kyle Pitts is there (free Kyle Pitts meetings are on Tuesday nights), and Bijan Robinson will no doubt get some targets, but Cousins can support multiple pass catchers. Just look at Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson…and earlier in his career with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed in Washington.
I am not concerned about London’s target share. He had 23% of the team’s targets last season and 57% of the WR targets. London is poised to have a phenomenal third-year WR breakout, and you will have to pay for London if you believe in this. He is currently going in the middle of the second round as the WR10 off the board, but he has such a ceiling that if you believe in him, it just might be worth it.
To be honest, I was excited to put a clip of Drake London’s TDs from 2023 in here, but I just didn’t have many to choose from – in two years in the NFL, London only has six TDs. He only had two last year. Woof.
DRAKE LONDON TOUCHDOWN ‼️ pic.twitter.com/eNQjTh9i9w
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 1, 2023
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Fresh from the runways of Paris comes Joey B. with the rebuilt everything.
Burrow started 2023 on a bad foot, or bad calf, actually. He had calf issues heading into the start of the season, which caused limited mobility. And it showed. He didn’t crack the top 20 of fantasy QBs until after Week 4, and over those four weeks, his completion rate was 59% with only two total TDs. Not great. We didn’t realize how much this calf issue hindered him until we looked back at the numbers. As Jason said on the AFC North Divisional Breakdown Podcast – Burrow’s 17-game pace over the first month was over 3000 passing yards and only 12 rushing yards; this was not the normal Burrow we were used to seeing on the field.
The man got it together briefly, but Burrow went down again in Week 11 with a wrist injury. In that game, he only played 44% of snaps and then missed the rest of the season. The Bengals were left trying to hold it together.
But let’s remember for a moment just how good Burrow has been, especially for a pocket passer. That’s right, there is no cheat code when it comes to Burrow’s production – in three out of his four years in the league, he hasn’t cracked 150 rushing yards. There were 22 QBs just last year who ran for over 150 yards. But the air yards, oh, the air yards. Chef’s kiss, I say. During the 2021 and 2022 seasons, when Burrow was QB8 and QB4, he averaged 4,500 passing yards. Only three QBs hit that number last year. When Burrow has his mojo, he is one of the absolute best.
% of 3rd down incompletions which were due to receiver error:
28% – Joe Burrow
27% – Kyler Murray
26% – Matthew Stafford
26% – Justin Herbert
23% – C.J. Stroud
22% – Dak Prescott
21% – Will Levis
18% – Trevor Lawrence
18% – Aidan O'Connell
18% – Joshua Dobbs
17% – Kirk Cousins…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 3, 2024
Health plays a big part in Burrow’s ability to bounce back, and by all intents and purposes, the man looks to be making good progress. “I’m confident I’ve put all the work in I need to make sure I’m healthy,” Burrow recently told the team’s official site. “I’m continuing year-to-year to better hone that and make that more efficient. Maybe listen to my body a little more throughout the offseason and not push through things that maybe I have in the past. I’m just starting to learn my body more and more.”
People are scrambling for the new hotness in CJ Stroud in fantasy drafts, and believe me, I am pro-Stroud, but I see very little difference between the two men. Stroud is going in the fourth round, and to pay off that draft capital, he would have to duplicate the type of season he had last year, in addition to throwing more TDs. By drafting a QB that early, you are planting your flag in the sand and missing out on a lot of talent in other positions. Burrow, however, is going in the sixth round, which is much more palatable.
And the talent is still there for Burrow. Ja’Marr Chase will always be his number-one read, but Tee Higgins also remains, as does the newly added Jermaine Burton. The Bengals stand a great chance to win the gritty AFC North, as I expect Burrow to return with a vengeance. Hopefully, fantasy managers can capitalize.