The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Week 3 is already here, and the NFL season is off to a wild start! Chris Godwin sits as the current WR1, J.K. Dobbins has outscored Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs, and somehow, Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr are the top two QBs. Just like we all predicted, right? Injuries have dominated the headlines through two weeks, with an avalanche of players set to miss Week 3.
Sure let’s add Deebo Samuel with a calf injury. What’s one more?! https://t.co/LRPW2Xm1jH
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) September 16, 2024
That’s quite a list. Now, start/sit decisions are more chaotic than ever. Players you never expected to consider are suddenly in the conversation. But don’t worry! With the help of the Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit tool, I’m here to help you navigate these tough calls and (hopefully) make the right moves to secure that Week 3 victory.
Calvin Ridley or Brian Thomas Jr.?
After a quiet Week 1, Calvin Ridley exploded in Week 2, securing two touchdowns — one receiving and one rushing — on his way to a WR6 finish. Despite the big fantasy week, his underlying stats were strikingly similar to Week 1. Ridley didn’t see an increase in targets or receptions, and he only slightly outgained his Week 1 yardage. The main difference was that he found the end zone twice, turning what would have been a modest performance into a top-10 fantasy wide receiver performance. This week, the 0-2 Tennessee Titans face off against the Green Bay Packers at home in what feels like a must-win game for them. If you tuned in to the latest episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, you’ll know that Jason picked Calvin Ridley as his “Start of the Week” at wide receiver. Ridley may be Andy’s official “My Guy” for the season, but Jason is backing him for Week 3.
Now let’s talk about Brian Thomas Jr. I loaded up on BTJ in my dynasty rookie drafts because I’m a huge fan of his upside as a future elite WR. He’s kicked off his season with some massive plays, even though he’s not getting a ton of opportunity. Trevor Lawrence has only thrown to him eight times in two games — four targets each week. Despite that, BTJ led the team in yards last week and is putting up a crazy 23.5 yards per catch. That’s impressive, no doubt. The problem is, the Jaguars’ offense has been pretty disappointing, averaging just 15 points per game — that’s worse than all but four teams.
Something has to change in Jacksonville. Lawrence isn’t feeding BTJ like I’d hoped, but it’s still early. Maybe they just need more time to click, or maybe the O-line needs to step up because Lawrence is barely getting enough time in the pocket to make plays. Either way, the Jags are struggling, and I’m not expecting some huge offensive turnaround this week, especially on the road with Bills Mafia bringing the noise.
Top QB/receiver combos in target EPA pic.twitter.com/1IP6v2dTe9
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) September 20, 2024
Verdict: I’ll take Calvin Ridley this week.
Aaron Jones or J.K. Dobbins?
Aaron Jones and his 2-0 Vikings are set to face the Houston Texans in a matchup that Vegas expects to be high-scoring, with the current over/under sitting at 46 points. Last week, Jones’ snap count took a hit after he suffered a hip injury mid-game, and while he’s been limited in practice, he’s still probable to suit up this week. With Jones a bit banged up, the Vikings gave Ty Chandler more touches, and he literally ran away with the opportunity, averaging a ridiculous 8.2 yards per carry. However, the Texans’ run defense isn’t messing around, ranking third against RBs. That’s exactly why Betz is betting the under on Aaron Jones’ 51.5 rushing yards line, as outlined in his NFL Player Props for Week 3 article:
“The Texans rank eighth in stuff rate and 10th in rushing yards over expectation per attempt allowed. We saw D’Andre Swift (14 for 18 yards) and Jonathan Taylor (16 for 48 yards) struggle against the Texans with both backs going under this number.”
Jones could struggle to hit his usual numbers, especially with Ty Chandler now splitting the workload and the Vikings likely wanting to manage Jones’ snaps to protect him long-term with this injury.
Wait. The RB4, J.K. Dobbins? A start/sit decision after two straight games of 130+ yards and touchdowns? Look, I get it — the Steelers’ defense is no joke — but Dobbins is an absolute must-start. If you were smart enough to snag him late in the draft, congrats! That’s a steal. Bench him now, and if he pops off again, you’ll be kicking yourself, and hopefully, your league will never let you live it down.
Verdict: J.K. Dobbins in the start over a hobbled Aaron Jones. Don’t overthink this, people.
Khalil Shakir or Jaylen Waddle?
Heading into the season, one of the biggest offseason questions was: Who would step up as the Bills’ target leader after a combined 317 targets were vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis? Despite a lower pass volume from Buffalo so far, Khalil Shakir has emerged as the team’s target leader through the first two weeks. This week, the Bills face a strong Jaguars run defense, and opponents have had much more success attacking them through the air. If Buffalo finally leans on the passing game, Shakir stands to benefit the most — especially with Josh Allen likely to check down more after injuring his hand in Week 1 and trying to limit his runs.
Jaylen Waddle would have been an easy must-start for me last week, but with backup QB Skylar Thompson under center this week, he’s more of a must-sit. Thompson’s limited experience as a starter isn’t encouraging. Last week, Waddle managed just 41 receiving yards with Thompson at the helm, and the backup lacks the arm strength to connect on those deep plays Waddle needs to shine as a fantasy superstar.
Verdict: Khalil Shakir. I think the Jaguars force the Bills to throw the ball. I’m trusting elite QB Josh Allen to have a more productive day over Dolphins backup QB Skylar Thompson getting his first start since 2022. The Bills have a higher implied point total than the Dolphins. I’ll go where the points will be.
Derek Carr or Dak Prescott?
This year’s waiver wire QB hero, Derek Carr, is the current QB4 on the season. That’s right: Derek Carr is a top-five quarterback just two weeks into the season. The revamped Saints offense under Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak has been remarkably efficient. Currently, Carr leads the league in both touchdown passes and yards per attempt and is the only quarterback in fantasy football to score over 20 points in each of the first two weeks. However, there is a caveat: Carr has recorded the fewest pass attempts among the top quarterbacks.
Derek Carr currently has the least amount of pass attempts in the NFL this season amongst starting QBs (40).
He is the QB2 in fantasy football.
5 of his 30 completions have been TDs.
Jared Goff is currently leading the NFL in pass attempts (83) and is the QB25.
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) September 18, 2024
As Joe Belder noted, an impressive five out of his 30 completions have resulted in touchdowns. While regression may be on the horizon, Carr faces a favorable matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season. Given the circumstances, I’m confident slotting Carr into my lineup this week.
Dak Prescott is currently the QB15 on the season. If he were to convert some of those interceptions into touchdowns, we’d be in business, but with three interceptions in just two games, he’s been plagued by drive-killing mistakes. However, it’s not for a lack of effort; the Cowboys rank sixth in the league for team pass plays per game, according to PlayerProfiler. This week, Prescott faces a tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who have only allowed two passing touchdowns this season and rank in the top 10 for sacks.
How bought in are you on Derek Carr? pic.twitter.com/CYj6w5gYVh
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) September 17, 2024
Verdict: Send in the Carr, Jason has him as his Start of The Week and I concur. The game environment shapes up to be high-scoring, and against a defense that isn’t efficient in stopping the two things Carr has been thriving in, I expect more of the same from Carr in Week 3.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Tank Dell?
Ok, now this is a TOUGH ONE. We finally got to see the Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout. 12 receptions on 16 targets. This is the kind of production we’ve been wanting more of. This week? I think he can repeat. The Dolphins’ defense has been shaky, allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt, ranking ninth worst in the league. On top of that, D.K. Metcalf showed up on the injury report with a minor hand issue. While he’s expected to play, any limitations or reduced targets to keep him healthy could mean more chances for JSN to shine. If Metcalf isn’t at 100%, JSN could be in for another big day.
Tank Dell, on the other hand, is still searching for his breakout game this season. Last year, it was all about Tank Dell, but with a more crowded wide receiver room and an improved run game featuring Joe Mixon, Dell has taken a bit of a backseat in the offense. However, this week could be a turning point as the Texans face off against the Vikings, a favorable matchup for Dell. Minnesota’s defense has given up the fifth most passing yards, which bodes well for the Texans’ passing attack. Adding to the potential for more targets, the Texans are likely to be without both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce this week, leaving Cam Akers as the primary back. This could push Houston to lean more heavily on their passing game, creating an opportunity for Dell to finally get back in the spotlight.
Verdict: As much as I love Tank Dell, it’s hard to ignore Jaxon Smith-Njigba after seeing how heavily he was involved last week. JSN has 10 more receptions and nearly 100 more yards than Dell right now. Both have favorable matchups, but I’m sticking with the hot hand and rolling with JSN this week.
I hope I was able to tackle some of your hardest decisions. If you have any start-sit questions, feel free to hit me up on X, and don’t forget to catch Mike every Sunday morning pre-kickoff for his last-minute start-sit decisions. Good luck!
Comments
James Connor
JK Dobbins
Travis Ettiene
Zack Moss
Start 2/3 Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Mike Evans
Thanks love the show!
I left a question a few minutes ago and included Michael Thomas as one of my choices… I meant to include Michael Wilson… not Michael Thomas.
My question should have read:
Michael Pittman
Darnell Mooney
Courtland Sutton
Michael Wilson
1 point ppr
I need one
Michael Pittman
Darnell Mooney
Courtland Sutton
Michael Thomas
1 point ppr
I need 1.