The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 15 (Fantasy Football)
If you’re reading this, you made the playoffs—let’s go, Footclan! I knew you had it in you! Now it’s really crunch time. No more losses, no more safety nets. It’s win, advance, and keep that championship dream alive. Every lineup decision is magnified, every point matters, and there is no margin for error. Forget the big names that aren’t delivering or the hype from back in August—this is all about who’s going to show up right now. Matchups, trends, and game scripts are everything from here on out. Using the Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit Tool, I’ll dig into the most debated lineup decisions, break down the matchups, analyze the game scripts, and follow the trends to help you maximize your roster’s potential. Let’s get straight to it—here’s who to start and sit for Week 15 as we push toward that championship trophy! Time to lock in.
Bo Nix or Kyler Murray?
This is a crucial game for the Denver Broncos. Fresh off their bye week, they’re in the thick of the playoff race. Heading into Week 15, Denver holds the seventh and final AFC playoff spot, with the Colts close on their heels. The spotlight is on rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who’s been on fire over the past six weeks. During that stretch, he is averaging 266 passing yards per game while showcasing his versatility. Did you know Nix ranks second in deep ball attempts? He’s airing it out. He hasn’t been as mobile over that time, but we’ve seen what he can do with his legs. He’s run for over 20 yards in six games and has four rushing touchdowns this season.
+PROE Teams with a Rookie QB (min. 10 starts) since 2016
2019 NYG- Daniel Jones (1.1%)
2019 JAX- Gardner Minshew II (0.4%)
2019 ARI- Kyler Murray (0.1%)
2020 CIN- Joe Burrow (0.1%)
2021 NYJ- Zach Wilson (0.3%)
2024 DEN- Bo Nix (0.6%) 👀— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 11, 2024
This week, Nix faces the Indianapolis Colts at home. The Broncos carry an implied team total of 24.25 points, and the Colts present the 11th-easiest matchup (schedule-adjusted) for quarterbacks. Indianapolis has allowed at least 18 fantasy points to four of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced. Nix is a fantastic start this week, but will he outscore Kyler Murray?
Kyler Murray faces the Patriots this week, another defense that’s been generous to quarterbacks. On paper, it’s an appealing matchup, but Kyler’s inconsistency makes him a headache for fantasy managers (trust me, I had him in my home league). He’s struggled in games he should have dominated and then surprised with huge performances against tougher defenses. The bigger concern? The blueprint for shutting Kyler down is out there. Over the past couple of weeks, he’s ranked 34th in expected points when facing all-out blitzes. If the Patriots bring heavy pressure and force him into mistakes, it could be another frustrating day for Murray managers. Proceed with caution.
Kyler Murray: a tale of Good and Bad
👑 His great has been great (QB 1, QB4, QB6, QB7)
😭 His bad has been bad (QB30, QB24, QB25) pic.twitter.com/AnVt3esEQw— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) November 15, 2024
Verdict: This isn’t the week to play games, and although the ceiling for Kyler is huge against a weak Patriots defense, I’m going with Bo Nix. Bo has been far more consistent and his matchup against the Colts isn’t anything to fear.
Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy?
I just laid out the implications for the Broncos to make the playoffs. They need to beat the Colts to keep those wild card dreams alive. How do they pull it off? Courtland Sutton. Over the past six weeks, Sutton has been money, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. I don’t think there’s a world (barring injury) where I don’t start Courtland Sutton. Another key motivator? Money. Courtland Sutton is chasing a $1.4 million incentive tied to reaching 1,065 receiving yards this season. With just 321 yards to go, I expect the Broncos to make Sutton a focal point in their offense to help him hit that benchmark—and cash in on the bonus.
Jerry Jeudy will finish the season as the WR _ on the season. Jeudy has been the WR2 in fantasy over the last month. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/tSIOStsLOG
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) December 11, 2024
With Jameis Winston under center, Jerry Jeudy has been a star. Who knew we would have a Jerry Jeudy breakout in 2024? It sure wasn’t me. But yet here we are. His receiving line is 70 yards, and he’s hit on a touchdown in three of the last four games. The Browns face the Chiefs this week, and with Kansas City locking down the run, Winston will keep airing it out. Sounds promising, right? One wrench that has been thrown into the mix is the return of Cedric Tillman. Tillman was performing well before leaving Week 12 with a concussion. He was commanding an average of 10 targets per game in the four-game stretch prior. He definitely could siphon off some of Jeudy’s targets. On top of that, the Chiefs are surrendering the highest target share to slot receivers, setting Elijah Moore up for a potentially big day.
Verdict: I can’t bench Courtland Sutton. The Broncos have way more to play for than the Browns. Courtland is the only dependable receiving option really on the Broncos, so I know he’ll get the targets. With Tillman back, and Moore lined up for a big opportunity in the slot it’s tough for me to start Jeudy ahead of his former teammate.
Braelon Allen or Sincere McCormick?
What looked like Braelon Allen‘s backfield with Breece Hall sidelined turned out to be a surprising timeshare. Isaiah Davis split the workload evenly with Allen last week, with both logging 16 carries. Not exactly the outcome fantasy managers envisioned after stashing Allen all season as Hall’s insurance policy. Now, with Breece returning to action this week, the backfield could get even messier. (And Jason is hopping back on the rollercoaster ride of rostering Hall). The bright side? The matchup. They play the Jaguars who we all know can’t stop anything. Over the past three weeks, they’ve allowed an average of 143.3 rushing yards per game.
Is Sincere McCormick a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs? pic.twitter.com/4KxTaaXwOK
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) December 12, 2024
Over the past three weeks, we’ve seen Sincere McCormick be utilized more and more. He first got the opportunity due to injuries ahead of him with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison, but has held onto the starting role even with Mattison back due to his effectiveness. Per the News via the Ballers, “McCormick appears to have earned the lead role after performing well since Week 12. During the past three contests, McCormick has carried 32 times for 175 yards (5.5 YPC) to go with four catches for 12 yards, with his efficiency on the ground far surpassing what Mattison has provided this season when healthy (3.3 YPC on 97 totes over 10 games).” The matchup isn’t the best for McCormick. Kurt Mullens outlines this in his Matchups to Consider article:
“Atlanta’s defense has allowed the third-fewest rushing TDs on the season and is allowing just 17.6 fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs per game. On the season though, the Falcons have allowed a top-24 RB in 77% of their games, including in seven of their last eight matchups.”
Verdict: In fantasy, volume is king. Sincere McCormick has firmly established himself as the RB1, earning the trust of his coaches. Meanwhile, Braelon Allen has yet to show he can even secure the RB2 spot on his team. No matter the matchup, McCormick is guaranteed the touches. On the other hand, with Breece Hall returning, I’m steering clear of Allen—and honestly, any Jets running back at this point. That backfield is a complete mess, and it’s tough to trust anyone in it right now.
Hunter Henry or Zach Ertz?
Since Drake Maye took over, Hunter Henry has been a consistent fantasy contributor, averaging 11.5 points per game despite scoring just one touchdown. Maye clearly trusts Henry as his primary read, making him a focal point in the offense. However, this week presents a tough matchup. The Cardinals have been stingy against tight ends, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position according to the Strength of Schedule Tool. While that’s a concern, it’s hard to justify benching a tight end commanding 25% of his team’s target share.
Zach Ertz has been a pretty dependable fantasy contributor himself lately. He’s averaging 13.16 fantasy points over the past three weeks. This week should be no different. His matchup is favorable. The Commanders take on the New Orlean Saints, who rank as a top 10 favorable opponent for the position by adjusted points allowed. The Commanders will also be without Noah Brown this week. With an already 20% target share on a thriving offense, Ertz is a must-start for me this week.
Verdict: While Henry’s opportunity is hard to ignore, Ertz gets the nod this week thanks to a more favorable matchup and the potential for an increased workload. Both are solid plays, but Ertz has the edge for Week 14.
As we head into the first week of the fantasy playoffs, it’s time to trust the work you’ve put in all season. Use the Footballer’s tools and resources at your disposal, make those critical start/sit decisions, and keep your eyes locked on the trophy. Let’s crush it this week and keep the momentum rolling! Got more start/sit questions or just want to talk strategy? Hit me up on X—I’m here for it. Good luck, Footclan!
Comments
Great article as always!