Ten Things We Learned in Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Week 3 was rough, but the beauty of this game we love is that we’re on to a new week, a new slew of games, and are ready to get our hearts broken by our fantasy teams once again. We’ve reached the point of the season where the alarm bells we were setting in Weeks 1 and 2 can start to ring, as we start to see trends developing with certain teams and certain players. It’s after a week like this one, where a plethora of the usual studs disappoint, where we can mine for diamonds in the rough. The key will be discerning what’s sustainable and what’s fleeting as we continue our journey to fantasy championships.
Rookie RBs Slow Out the Gate
Going into the 2024 NFL Draft, the general consensus was that this year’s running back class wasn’t as strong as in years past. So far, that theory has been proven true, as the impact of the majority of the class has been minimal. Jonathon Brooks, the first RB selected in the middle of the second round, started the season on IR. Trey Benson, the second RB selected, is ceding snaps to Emari Demercado and only played two snaps on Sunday. Blake Corum, the third RB drafted, played zero snaps in the Rams’ first game and their last game. MarShawn Lloyd, the fourth RB drafted, missed the start of the season due to injury and is now on IR. Notice a trend here? There are a couple of exceptions, however…
Bucky and Braelon Blast Off
The two rookie running backs who have made the biggest splashes so far this season are Bucky Irving and Braelon Allen. Irving has seen his percentage of team running back rushes go up from 37.5% in Week 1 to 56.3% in Week 3. He received nine carries to Rachaad White‘s six on Sunday and got his first red zone carry. He’s been faster and more elusive than White and is on his way to gaining more playing time. Allen played nine snaps in the season opener and that number jumped up to 23 snaps in Week 3. He scored two touchdowns in Week 2 and saw 14 opportunities in Week 3. Irving and Allen are must-adds if they are still available in leagues. They are both high-value insurance backs, but the biggest difference between them is Irving could actually take over the starting job in Tampa Bay. Allen will always be the RB2 behind Breece Hall barring injury.
Topsy-Turvy Tight Ends
The tight end position has always been a volatile one, but there was at least a sense of security if you drafted one of the top four or five players at the position. Travis Kelce was as safe a pick as there had been in previous years, Sam LaPorta showed promise with his breakout rookie campaign and the only thing holding Mark Andrews back was injury, not his play. The safety blanket that was the top few TEs has been thrown out the window this season. Of the top five tight ends drafted, only Trey McBride has finished in the top five for a week, and that was only because he fell on a ball in the end zone for a touchdown. LaPorta, Kelce, Andrews, McBride, and Kyle Pitts have all been disappointments so far. The top five TEs in Week 3 (before Monday’s games) are Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Jake Ferguson, Tyler Conklin, and Noah Fant. Go past those five and you have players like Nick Vannett, Johnny Mundt, and Josh Whyle in the top 10.
Stand Pat With Panthers Players
As predicted in last week’s column, Andy Dalton helped make Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Chuba Hubbard not just fantasy-relevant, but week-winning players. Johnson finished as the WR4 on the week and Hubbard was the RB5 (ahead of the Monday night games). If Dalton continues to get the nod, start Johnson and Hubbard with confidence, and Thielen is certainly a flex option. And with three out of the next four games against the Bengals, Falcons, and Commanders, Dalton could be a capable QB streamer.
Malik Nabers Is the Real Deal
Malik Nabers has a league-high 37.8% target share. That’s absolutely bonkers. We all knew about Nabers’ talent in the fantasy community, but we were worried that Daniel Jones wouldn’t be able to support him. Jones has supported a WR3 or better just once in his five years as a starter, and that was Darius Slayton in 2019, who finished as the WR35. That’s going to change this year with Nabers. As long as Jones plays competently, the rookie wideout could easily finish in the top 12 at the position.
Aaron Rodgers Shows Flashes
The oldest player in the NFL finally looked like his old self on Thursday night, over a year after he ruptured his Achilles tendon. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 35 pass attempts for 281 yards and two touchdowns in the Jets’ 24-3 win against the Patriots. More importantly, he finally connected with budding superstar Garrett Wilson for a score. Say what you want about the Patriots’ offense, but their defense is formidable, so it shouldn’t be taken lightly that Rodgers was able to carve them up. The 40-year-old QB might not be anything more than a streamer in fantasy football, but it’s a positive sign for Wilson drafters.
The Richardson Ride Will Be Bumpy
When Anthony Richardson has a good fantasy game, like he did in Week 1, the Colts lose. When he has a poor fantasy game and throws two interceptions like he did on Sunday, the Colts win. Make it make sense. Through three games, Richardson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected. What’s more, he’s barely running the ball, which is what made him so appealing as a fantasy option. As someone who rosters Richardson, I’m looking to hold him for now while looking for a better starting option. After one or two big games, which we know he’s capable of having, I’d try to unload him.
Running Back Concerns
I’m worried about D’Andre Swift and Javonte Williams. We’re through three weeks of the season, so we’ve reached the point where that concern is warranted. Swift is last in the league in rushing yards over expected rush. His rush shares went down significantly in Week 3 as Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert started to get more involved. Drafted as an RB2, Swift is looking more and more like a player who will clog rosters because it won’t feel good to cut him, but it’s doubtful you can get much value in return in a trade. It might be even worse for Javonte Williams. The fourth-year RB saw just 51% of snaps and got only five carries in a game where the Broncos were winning big for most of the day. Tyler Badie got the most opportunities with nine touches out of the backfield. Both Swift and Williams belong on fantasy benches until further notice.
Stash Emanuel Wilson
Credit to Mike, who has been dropping hints about Wilson all of last week and on the Sunday live show. His advice was to stash Wilson ahead of the Sunday games and that advice is already paying off. Wilson saw a 35.3% rush share and 14.3% target share on Sunday, finishing with 50 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards plus a touchdown. Josh Jacobs is the workhorse back in Green Bay, but Wilson is the clearcut RB2 and should retain that role even when Lloyd comes off of injured reserve. Wilson should be picked up in all 12-team leagues and might be the most important backup RB to roster.
Najee Gets the Nod
It’s the same story every year, it doesn’t always look pretty when Najee Harris runs the ball, but he keeps piling up numbers. He’s rushed for over 1,000 yards and at least seven touchdowns each of the last three seasons. Coming off Jaylen Warren‘s success last year, it looked like the Steelers’ backfield was heading for a 50/50 split, but Warren was banged up coming into the season and hurt his knee on Sunday. This could very well be Harris’ backfield, with the occasional Cordarrelle Patterson sighting, because of course, Arthur Smith. The schedule looks juicy over the next six weeks with matchups against the Colts, Giants, and Commanders on deck. Harris hasn’t had eye-popping numbers just yet, so now might be a good time to buy low.