Ten Things We Learned in Week 15 (Fantasy Football)
The first week of the fantasy football playoffs is in the books and what a doozy it was. We relied on last-minute waiver wire additions to our rosters to carry us through the first round. We put our hopes and dreams on the shoulders of backup quarterbacks. We winced in agony as we watched our favorite fantasy stars succumb to injuries. But for those of us who made it through the fray and disarray, congratulations. It’s time to regroup, reorganize and check out what we learned this past week as we embark on round two of the fantasy postseason.
1. There is Still Gold to be Mined on the Waiver Wire
Every year there are players who have done next to nothing all season that become relevant in the fantasy playoffs. In Week 15, the Raiders had three such players in Aidan O’Connell (QB5), Zamir White (RB12) and Tre Tucker (WR12). Ty Chandler was the RB4 and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the RB9. Joshua Palmer was the WR11 and Demarcus Robinson has put up WR2 numbers in three games in a row. Some of those stats are difficult to predict, like Tucker for example, but the other scenarios were all foreseeable. Take a look at Joe Beldner’s Waiver Wire Pickups and tune in to Tuesday’s Waiver Wire show to make sure you’re up to date with the latest on the waiver wire.
2. Palmer could Pay Off
Much to Andy Holloway’s chagrin, he spent a significant amount of FAAB to pick up Josh Palmer, just to drop him when Justin Herbert got injured. I bet he wishes he could take that back. Second-string QB Easton Stick is no Herbert, but he did connect with Palmer on four passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on Thursday against the Raiders. What’s more, Keenan Allen has been hampered by a heel injury and might not play this week, or perhaps for the rest of the season. If Allen is out, Palmer jumps into starting consideration and could be a key piece for a championship team.
3. Colts’ Running Back Room in Flux
I want to roster whoever starts at RB for the Colts. The question is, who will that be in Week 16? Zack Moss has filled in valiantly for Jonathan Taylor but he got hurt this past week. It’s also yet to be known if Taylor will be ready to come back this week. When Moss got hurt, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson filled in and played well. Sermon rushed for 88 yards and Goodson rushed for 69 yards. Goodson was signed off the practice squad Tuesday, which is telling. It’s very possible Moss and Taylor will both be out in Week 16, meaning there is value to be had with another RB. If I have a roster spot I’m looking to pick up Sermon and stash him with the possibility that he’ll get the starting nod this week.
4. Slim Pickens
George Pickens is hanging on to a top-36 WR spot by a thread, thanks to two big weeks early on in the season. Since Week 8, he’s ranked as the WR49 and has put up double digit fantasy points once (10.6) in half PPR formats. This week he saw his highest target share (26.9%) but only managed 6.2 fantasy points. The matchups over the next two weeks against Cincinnati and Seattle normally wouldn’t scare you off from starting a talented wideout, but with the way Pickens and the Steelers’ offense has been playing, he should remain on the fantasy bench. I’d rather take a gamble on someone like this next player…
5. Roll the Dice on Michael Wilson
Some of you may be asking, Michael who? You know, Michael Wilson, the Cardinals wide receiver who was selected in the third-round in the 2023 NFL draft. It’s been a while since he’s been relevant this season having missed the last three games before returning in Week 15. His last big game was back in Week 4 (23.1 fantasy points). But if you take a look at his snap count percentages, Wilson went back to playing 88% of the snaps last week. He’s played over 75% of snaps in 8 games this season. Additionally, Marquise Brown left last week’s game early due to injury, and while coach Jonathan Gannon said he won’t land on IR, it’s unlikely he plays in Week 16. This will lead to more opportunities for Wilson, who has had played just one game with Kyler Murray. Wilson is an upside stash and could play a role for fantasy teams in the next two weeks.
6. Don’t be Fooled by Goff’s Monster Outing
In last week’s column I made my case for steering clear from Jared Goff in the fantasy playoffs. Of course he erupted for his highest fantasy total of the season with 31 points, but my verdict remains the same. I don’t want to start him the next two weeks on the road against the Vikings and Cowboys. Goff has historically played better at home (he was at home last week against Denver) and the defensive units for Minnesota and Dallas are better against the quarterback. I’d rather start Baker Mayfield or Russell Wilson, even Jake Browning over Goff the next two weeks.
7. There’s Points to be had with Packers Pass-Catchers
The Packers have lost two in a row but have still been putting up relevant fantasy totals. Their trio of wide receivers, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs have been helpful for fantasy teams, albeit in sporadic fashion. It’s been hard to pick the right WR each week and the potential return of Christian Watson further clouds the WR landscape. Watson was on a two-game heater before he got hurt, so if he returns to action I’d be inclined to list him as my preferred Green Bay wideout. Reed has been a solid flex option and Wicks has been serviceable in spots, but I think Watson’s return hampers his output. The wildcard is Doubs, who leads the WR group in snap count percentage by a gigantic margin, but feels like a touchdown-or-bust option. I’d be comfortable starting Watson when healthy and Reed and also rookie tight end Tucker Kraft if Luke Musgrave remains out.
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8. Hang in There with Henry
For fantasy managers who started Derrick Henry in Week 15, I sure hope you made it to Week 16. The star RB put up the dud of all duds – 16 carries for nine yards and four catches for one yard. If you somehow managed to survive the week despite his poor performance, put him back in your lineup, no matter how painful it seems. Before Week 15, Henry had a three-game streak of pure dominance, putting up 62.2 points in that span. He’s the RB8 on the season. Henry’s had a bad game every now and again, but he doesn’t have two down games in a row. I’d put him back out there with confidence against the Seahawks next week and again in a rematch with the Texans in the fantasy championship. Having Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback for the injured Will Levis should help, too.
9. Return of the Wallerus
Fresh off a five-game absence, Darren Waller returned to the New York Giants lineup to the tune of four catches for 40 yards on just 42% of snaps. Fantasy managers want more, but it’s a positive sign that he’s back out there. I expect his snap count to go up over the final weeks and his numbers to go up as well. He’s got two prime matchups with the Eagles and Rams on the docket. It doesn’t get much better than that for tight ends. If he was dropped, I’d scoop him up and consider starting him if you don’t have a premiere option. I wouldn’t bet on him putting up top-5 TE numbers, but if anyone can come up with a big game out of nowhere, it’s the Wallerus.
10. Keep Flying with the Eagles
Philadelphia has lost three games in a row, and it hasn’t been particularly pretty for the skill players on the team. Through Week 9, A.J. Brown was the WR2 with 170 total fantasy points. Since then, he’s logged 65 total points, making him the WR28 in that time frame. Over the last two weeks, DeVonta Smith has scored 10.3 total points, making him the WR46 in that two-game span. Through Week 11, D’Andre Swift was the RB8. He’s been the RB23 in the five games since. But with all that being said, you have to start the guys who got you to this point. Brown, Smith and Swift are key players for the Eagles and for fantasy teams. I fully expect them to turn things around to close out the season. Philadelphia plays the Giants and Cardinals the next two weeks. Don’t even think about benching Smith or Swift or even Dallas Goedert, not even for a second.