Ten Things We Learned From Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Andy warned us at the end of Wednesday’s show last week – don’t freak out after Week 1. I know it’s tough to remain calm when your first-round pick puts up a dud or your starting quarterback gets hurt. But Footclan, this is only the beginning. Instead of hitting the panic button this early, soak in the first week of football and start to formulate your strategy moving forward. There’s plenty of information we can glean from the opening slate of games, but there’s still a long way to go. So strap in, take your finger off the drop button next to Drake London‘s name and learn something new each week as you progress towards the ultimate goal of a fantasy title.
1. Anthony Richardson Investment Could Pay Off
It’s been said over and over, a player doesn’t necessarily have to be good in actual NFL action to be good for fantasy. It’s been seen before with Jameis Winston and Justin Fields, a quarterback can struggle to win games and with his passing efficiency, but still be great for fantasy. By no means am I declaring that Anthony Richardson is a bad football player. I’m just saying that even if the Colts lose, or he completes just 9 of 19 passing attempts like he did Sunday against the Texans, he can still deliver for fantasy. The second-year QB threw for 212 yards, two touchdowns and ran for 56 yards and a touchdown in the season opener, finishing with 26.1 fantasy points and an overall QB4 finish (not counting the Monday night game). Richardson’s draft price was high with his ceiling already built in, but those who took a shot on him have to be happy after the first week.
2. Sam Darnold Can Support a WR1
The Vikings opened the season against the Giants, so take this with a grain of salt, but for at least the first half of action of the entire opening slate of games, Darnold looked like the best quarterback on the field. He completed his first 12 passes and went into the half having completed 13 of 14 passing attempts for 151 yards and a touchdown. He finished the game with 208 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception. And while he didn’t run much in this game, he’s proven to be a capable runner with 13 career rushing touchdowns on his resume. More importantly, he showed he can support a WR1. Luckily for him, he just so happens to be playing with arguably the best wide receiver in the game. Justin Jefferson didn’t have a ton of receptions, just four for 59 yards, but he scored a touchdown. That was a big question mark heading into the season – could Darnold find Jefferson in the end zone? Well he did in Week 1, so he’s trending in the right direction. Maybe Kay Adams and Jason were on to something…
.@TheFFBallers Jason Moore makes the case AGAINST Sam Darnold in fantasy 🙅♂️
… And then makes the case FOR Sam Darnold 🎟️😅@heykayadams @jasonffl @FFHitman @andyholloway pic.twitter.com/5XSgQ92MIJ
— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) August 28, 2024
3. Mondre SZN is Back
Fantasy managers worried that Antonio Gibson would take third-down work away from Rhamondre Stevenson need not worry anymore. Stevenson played nearly 80 percent of the offensive snaps in New England’s 16-10 win over Cincinnati, scoring the team’s only touchdown of the afternoon. Stevenson out-snapped Gibson 51-13 overall, 9-3 on third downs and got the only goal line carry, which he converted for a 3-yard touchdown. Stevenson also looked spry and elusive, making up for a mediocre offensive line by avoiding tackles and gaining yards after contact. He finished with 120 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries and caught all three of his targets. The 25 rushing attempts was second on the week amongst RBs heading into the Monday night game.
4. Prepare for Weekly Roulette with Buffalo’s Pass-Catchers
One of the biggest puzzles on the mind of fantasy managers all offseason was who would be the main beneficiary of Josh Allen‘s targets in Buffalo? The Bills had the most vacated targets from last season with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. After Week 1, the answer remains unclear. Allen completed passes to 10 different receivers and no player received more than five targets. Dalton Kincaid, who many believed would be the primary target, caught just one pass on two targets. Rookie Keon Coleman caught four of five targets for 51 yards, but Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins caught Allen’s two touchdown passes. There is no need to worry about Allen’s fantasy numbers – he still finished as the QB1 with four touchdowns under his belt (two passing and two rushing). But playing the weekly guessing game with Buffalo’s wideouts and tight ends could prove to be frustrating.
5. Houston, We Have a Problem
Problem is probably too strong a word, but I couldn’t help myself from using the famously misquoted phrase from the Apollo 13 mission. The issue in Houston is similar to the one in Buffalo, it’s going to be difficult to predict who will be a fantasy producer on a week-to-week basis. The difference is you can narrow it down to three, sometimes four players with the Texans compared to the plethora of options with the Bills. In Week 1, Tank Dell was the odd man out. He had just three catches for 40 yards while Diggs caught two touchdowns and Nico Collins brought in six catches for 117 yards. Next week, it might be Dell who has the big scoring output, or it could even be Dalton Schultz every now and then. The Texans are going to score a ton of points, but there will be fantasy managers who have the third option in their lineup that will end up disappointed every week.
6. Lamar Likes Likely
We have to go back to the Thursday night game to highlight Isaiah Likely‘s unlikely performance. The third-year TE is athletic, talented and has shown flashes in the past, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted a stat line of nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown coming out of the gate. What’s more, his involvement spelled trouble for Mark Andrews. But Andy’s wise words come full circle with Andrews: don’t panic. The Chiefs game plan was to stop Andrews, and it worked to perfection. Fantasy managers don’t try to trade Andrews for cents on the dollar, don’t drop him in a fit of rage. Just be patient. But that doesn’t mean Likely will be a one-hit wonder. It’s clear he’s going to be involved in the offense moving forward. Likely should be added in all leagues and could be a viable option either in the TE spot or as a flex in the right matchup.
Re-watched every snap that Mark Andrews was on the field last night. I was the lowest on our show on Andrews coming into the year so I could take a pretend victory lap, but instead, I have a message after watching the film. DO NOT PANIC…here's why:
I added up every… pic.twitter.com/8lOUmbnBf2
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) September 6, 2024
7. So Much for the Dave Canales Effect
Watching the Panthers play football isn’t pleasant at all. New coach Dave Canales is credited with resurrecting Geno Smith‘s career in Seattle and Baker Mayfield‘s career last season in Tampa Bay. Well Smith and Mayfield both looked pretty good without him to start the 2024 season. Bryce Young on the other hand might have looked even worse than he did last year, which is quite a feat in itself because he was atrocious last year. There was optimism surrounding Diontae Johnson joining the team and rookie Xavier Legette amplifying the offense. Chuba Hubbard was supposed to be a late-round contributor who could put up satisfactory numbers to start the season. Those players might have a chance to be relevant in fantasy down the line, if Andy Dalton takes over at quarterback. It feels bad saying this, but it’s possible Young is just not that good at football. At the top of this column I said we don’t want to overreact to one week, but this goes back to last year. If Canales can’t help Young, no one can.
8. Dallas’ Backfield Looks Like a Committee
Much to Mike and my dismay, Rico Dowdle didn’t get the lion’s share of work out of the backfield for the Cowboys. It also might look like Ezekiel Elliot got more work than Dowdle because he got more carries and targets, plus he scored a touchdown, but the work was pretty evenly split. Zeke also got the start, which probably makes him the preferred fantasy option moving forward with Dowdle serving more as an insurance back. Both RBs will likely cancel each other out, relegating Zeke to a flex option at best and Dowdle to the bench. Take a look at the workload split courtesy of PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, who I highly recommend giving a follow.
9. We’ve Been Drafting the Wrong TE in Chicago
As someone with a large share of this player in best ball tournaments, it’s painful to admit that Cole Kmet is the second TE option in Chicago. If you’re going to roster a Bears tight end, it should be Gerald Everett, not Kmet. Everett doubled Kmet with 24 out of 36 snaps in 11 personnel on Sunday against the Titans. Everett was getting the majority of snaps with the starters in the preseason, but there was hope it was to get the new tight end acclimated into the system. But Week 1 proved that wasn’t the case. Everett doesn’t necessarily have to be rostered immediately but should be monitored to see his involvement in the passing game moving forward. Kmet can be dropped in redraft leagues.
10. Don’t be Alarmed by One Bad Game
There were a handful of highly-drafted players who came up short in Week 1. The aforementioned Andrews and London are two players who struggled to put up fantasy points. Chris Olave put up a dud despite his team scoring 47 points. Amon-Ra St. Brown took a backseat to Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs. Perhaps one of the biggest shockers was Marvin Harrison Jr.’s debut that resulted in one 4-yard catch. It’s a bummer for sure, but even great players have bad weeks. Don’t make any rash decisions this early in the season and keep starting your studs. As the great jazz singer/songwriter Bobby McFerrin once said,
“Don’t worry, be happy. In every life we have some trouble, but when you worry you make it double.”
Comments
Don’t forgot Andy’s my guy, Tank Bigsby…