Ten Things We Learned for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Another week in the books, another step closer to the fantasy football playoffs. And thankfully this week is one of the rare ones where there weren’t many catastrophic injuries. Our injury expert Matthew Betz has all the latest info, Javier Manzanera has streaming QB, K, and D/ST options every week, and Joe Beldner gives you his insight on which players to scoop up off the waiver wire. We’ve got the tools to help you reach your ultimate goal of a fantasy championship, so time to lock in Footclan and take a closer look into what we learned from this past week’s slate of NFL action.
We Can’t Trust Sean Payton
Coming off the best game of his young career, Audric Estime was the pickup of the week, and many fantasy managers spent up to get him. It’s hard to find a running back on the waiver wire who is getting volume this late in the season, so it felt like an all-in FAAB spend for many managers out there. Well, Sean Payton tricked us once again. Estime’s snap count went down from 45% the previous week to 23% and Javonte Williams‘ snaps went back up to 52%, nearly double the amount of snaps he played last week. The Broncos used Williams, Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin in a three-way split, which is brutal for the fantasy potential of all three players. Williams scored a touchdown, which salvaged his day, but who could have started him with confidence after he played second fiddle to Estime last week? This is disappointing on a couple of fronts—Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offense have been playing well, and the upcoming schedule is a running back’s dream scenario. Denver plays the Raiders, Browns, and Colts the next three weeks, followed by a tough matchup against the Chargers, and then a game against the Bengals in most leagues’ fantasy championship. You want the starting running back who is facing these teams on an offense that is finding the end zone often, but who is actually the starting running back? It’s a frustrating conundrum for fantasy managers who probably need to roster both Williams and Estime and take a guess about which one will get the majority of the backfield work.
Jonnu Smith Has Become a Weekly Starter
Andy has quietly been beating the drum for Jonnu Smith on the show of late, even making him his start of the week this past week. Smith has seen a target share of 22% over his last six games which has netted him the TE6 spot in that span. He was the TE2 this week with 25.1 fantasy points and is a favorite target of Tua Tagovailoa in the red zone. Smith has always been an intriguing player who has shown flashes, like when he finished as the TE10 in 2020 as a member of the Titans, finishing that season with 448 receiving yards, 10 receiving touchdowns, and a rushing score. Last year in Atlanta, he took away snaps from Kyle Pitts, putting up a career-high 582 receiving yards. In this tight end economy, Smith absolutely needs to be rostered and has proven himself as a weekly starter.
Aaron Jones Ceding Snaps
It’s not time to push the panic button on Aaron Jones, but signs are starting to point to him losing his bell-cow role. Keep in mind that he’s been banged up the past couple of weeks, but the Vikings clearly saw a need for insurance in the backfield by acquiring Cam Akers. Akers has seen his snap count go up each week, playing 27 snaps on Sunday compared to Jones’ 39. It was the lowest total for Jones since Week 2. The veteran back has been great this year, consistently putting up RB2 numbers with some splashes of RB1 outputs but be wary moving forward. And Jones managers should certainly roster Akers in case the workloads continue to fluctuate.
Anthony Richardson Shows Out
I wonder how many people started Anthony Richardson this past week. I wonder if he was even rostered in the majority of redraft leagues. As a fantasy manager who drafted and since dropped Richardson, I was happy to see him play well but was bummed out that his fantasy points were wasted on the waiver wire. Richardson threw for a career-high 272 passing yards and completed 20 passing attempts for only the second time in his career. He also ran 10 times and scored twice on the ground, reminding us of the fantasy potential he’s had all along. Maybe the benching was what he needed to turn things around. But the upcoming schedule isn’t easy and it’s hard to trust him after just one outstanding performance. He’s worth a roster spot at this point because he can turn out games like this past one, but we need to see it consistently before we can place our confidence in him.
Scared for Terry?
Terry McLaurin had his worst game of the season on Thursday night, catching one pass for 10 yards and was only targeted twice. But fear not, this is an outlier for McLaurin, not the norm. From Weeks 3 to 11, McLaurin was the WR2, and if you include his dud games in the first two weeks and last week, he’s still the WR7. This speaks more to Philadelphia’s defense and rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who has been shutting down star receivers all season. But, there are still a couple of caveats with McLaurin: he hasn’t had his bye week yet and he faces Philadelphia again during the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs. There’s no need to worry about McLaurin leading up to the fantasy playoffs, but depending on roster construction you might want to look elsewhere in that tough Week 16 matchup.
Big Montana to the Rescue
Cue the music for Big Montana. Yeehaw! For fantasy managers in need of tight end support, Will Dissly has your back! We’ve reached Byepocalypse Part 1, and with six teams on bye, we definitely need TE help. Dissly has seen a ridiculously high target share over his last five games, including a 33.3% share two weeks ago. He scored his first touchdown of the season on Sunday and caught four of six targets for 80 yards. With Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Taysom Hill, Mike Gesicki, and both Bills tight ends on bye, Dissly is a worthwhile streaming option this week.
Jags (And Fantasy Managers) Need Lawrence
It’s difficult to know what to do with Jaguars players for fantasy the rest of the season. Of course, Brian Thomas Jr. has had a great rookie campaign and Evan Engram gets a steady dose of targets, but Jacksonville’s offense has been a shell of itself without Trevor Lawrence, and that’s saying something, considering it wasn’t a very prolific offense even when he was starting. Travis Etienne has fallen off the wayside and Tank Bigsby has had a couple of big games but is dealing with injuries. At this point, the Jaguars are playing for the number one pick and nothing more. So do they even bring back Lawrence if he’s ready to play after the bye week? If Lawrence returns, Thomas Jr., Engram, and perhaps Etienne can go back into fantasy lineups, but if it’s Mac Jones the rest of the way, I fear there isn’t a single Jaguar that will be fantasy-relevant.
Is There Value in the Raiders’ Backfield?
Going back to Audric Estime for a second, he was the hottest waiver wire add because you just don’t find running back volume this late in the season. So with the news that Alexander Mattison and Zamir White both got banged up on Sunday and could miss extended time, that leaves a wide-open spot for a running back on the Raiders to get a massive amount of volume. Ameer Abdullah was the only active RB on Sunday and he came in and scored a receiving touchdown, but got just one carry. Rookie Dylan Laube was a healthy inactive and has played just one snap this season. Sincere McCormick, a speedster in college, is on the practice squad and might be elevated to the 53-man roster. The situation is murky, but it feels like there has to be some glimmer of value with one of these players if Mattison and White are both out. I’d recommend Abdullah in redraft leagues if you need a spot start coming up. He’s the most experienced player and the best pass-catcher in the group, and the Raiders are always playing from behind. But in dynasty leagues, Laube and McCormick are intriguing names to keep an eye on.
JSN Flying Under the Radar
I was shocked researching Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s numbers this season. The second-year wideout has very quietly snuck into the WR1 category over the last eight weeks, albeit thanks to a 37-point performance (PPR) in Week 9. But he had another big day on Sunday with 10 catches for 110 yards, outperforming DK Metcalf who returned from injury. JSN has seen target shares of 26%, 38%, and 36% over his last three games and has been a PPR machine. He only has three games this season with less than 10 points in PPR formats and is the WR10 on the year. Even as I’m writing this now, I can’t believe that he’s the WR10 in PPR leagues. Ryan Grubb and company have unlocked something with JSN that we were hoping for last season. The talent has always been there, but now the offensive scheme is there too. Fire up JSN in lineups with no hesitation, even with Metcalf back.
Browns’ Backfield Mess
Since returning from injury in Week 9, Jerome Ford has out-snapped Nick Chubb 77 to 50 and has seen seven targets to Chubb’s one. Chubb is still getting the majority of the rushing work, out-carrying Ford 11 to five on Sunday, but couldn’t capitalize in a plus-matchup against the Saints. The Browns have one of the most brutal schedules over the next few weeks, playing the Steelers twice, the Broncos, and the Chiefs. The Chubb comeback story has been inspiring to watch, but for fantasy purposes, both Chubb and Ford belong on benches at least until the matchup against the Bengals in Week 16.