Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Each week, we’re taking a look at Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) across the league and the season. With bye weeks in full swing, it’s more important than ever to dig into the data to find hidden gems and players poised to exceed expectations in the second half of the season.
Note: Targets per Route Run (TPRR) is an efficiency metric (expressed as a percentage) used to highlight the correlation between performance and opportunity. With TPRR, we can look deeper than raw target totals to find players poised for breakouts or breakdowns. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s primer and my 2022 season preview.
Week 6 Recap
Here’s a look at the Week 6 leaderboard (min. 10 routes run). The correlation between fantasy finish and TPRR rank dipped this week due to some outliers at the top of the list. Among qualified receivers, 11 exceeded 30% TPRR, compared to 17 in Week 5.
*Route Data via PFF.com; Target Data via FantasyData.com
**Monday Night Football stats are not included
Good News
- Chris Godwin might be back. He’s posted at least a 20% TPRR in every game he’s played this season. Godwin saw 12 targets from themed-t-shirt-wearing Tom Brady, thus creating the newest reception-prediction model from our own Matthew Betz:
Chase: 7/132/2 on 10 targets
Godwin: 6/95/0 on 12 targetsLadies and gentlemen, a new model is born. I'm proud to officially announce the QB-WR Swag Model™
If the QB wears a WR's shirt, jersey, gear, etc that WR is guaranteed to see 10+ targets. Adjust. 🚀 https://t.co/YOIrqifRHb
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) October 17, 2022
- Add Wan’Dale Robinson. You can see the top three spots on rankings this week belong to Brandon Powell, Garrett Wilson, and Robinson. What do they have in common besides a super-high TPRR? Each player ran less than 15 routes. Powell has all the signs of being a flash in the pan and Garrett Wilson is hard to trust in the Jets’ carousel of receivers. Robinson, in his return from injury, showed everything you want to see on only 23% of snaps, and the WR1 role on the 5-1 Giants is wide open. I can’t wait to see what Robinson does when his playing time increases.
- Are we seeing signs of life from Darnell Mooney? Volume is the only route to relevance on a Bears team that ranks 31st in points per game. Earning 12 targets is a great sign, but proceed with caution.
- Deebo Samuel is a regular on this list, but he’s joined by Brandon Aiyuk after Jimmy Garoppolo attempted a season-high 41 passes in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Deebo, Aiyuk, and George Kittle all saw 10+ targets, and I’d expect that to continue next week when the 49ers play keep-up with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bad News
- Christian Kirk saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. However, Jacksonville’s middling offense and Trevor Lawrence‘s willingness to spread the ball around could make consistency hard to come by, as evidenced by Kirk’s 18% TPRR in Week 6.
- After dominating in TPRR all season, Jakobi Meyers only managed four targets on 22 routes run. One week does not make a season, and the return of Mac Jones will restore stability for Meyers.
Season Leaders
Another week, another update. We’re increasing the target minimum to 20 targets to eliminate irrelevant data, and I’ve added a column to show the movement in the season rankings. Here are the current season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers:
*Route Data via PFF.com; Target Data via FantasyData.com
**Monday Night Football stats are not included
- Amari Cooper took the biggest leap in the rankings after a 12-target performance against New England.
- Marquise Brown has ranked in the top 20 for most of the season, but he’s going to miss the next two months with a broken foot. Rondale Moore (19% TPRR) could see a significant increase in short-yardage attempts from Kyler Murray, and DeAndre Hopkins is set to return from suspension.
- As mentioned in the previous section, Chris Godwin (26% TPRR) jumps into the top 25 for the season
Season Losers (so far)
*Route Data via PFF.com; Target Data via FantasyData.com
**Monday Night Football stats are not included
- Gabriel Davis has to be mentioned again, though he can hardly be considered a fantasy loser; Josh Allen and the Bills are good enough to provide more boom weeks than busts. With a 12% TPRR, Davis is on the perfect offense to maximize his limited potential.
- DeVante Parker will struggle for consistency as long as Jakobi Meyers is healthy.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (11% TPRR) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (8% TPRR) have shown they cannot be trusted week-to-week, and Travis Kelce‘s restructured contract could mean a new receiver is coming to Kansas City.