Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
All season long, we’re looking at Targets per Route Run (TPRR) for wide receivers, both for the current week and the season overall. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s primer and my 2022 season preview.
We’re looking beyond the box score to find players who are making the most of their opportunities. TPRR gives you an additional dimension to consider when pursuing or avoiding players in trades, start/sit decisions, or the waiver wire.
Week 2 TPRR Recap
*Note: Players from Monday Night Football are not included in this analysis.
Here’s a look at the top-25 players in TPRR (min. 10 routes run)
Three Positives for Week 3
1. Wild Dolphins
Can Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle coexist? In Week 2, the answer was a resounding yes. We can’t expect both receivers to go nuclear every week, but the two Dolphins, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown, lead the league in TPRR among qualified receivers. So far, Tua Tagovailoa appears to be taking the leap. Miami faces Buffalo in Week 3; the Dolphins might have the pieces to keep the Bills’ defense honest and make this a shoutout.
2. It’s a party, and the rookies are invited
Drake London and Garrett Wilson improved upon their impressive debuts, and this week Chris Olave inserted himself into the picture. Talent and opportunity have merged perfectly for the trio, with all three exceeding the 30% TPRR mark. Even Ashton Dulin joined in, achieving a 24% TPRR with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce sidelined for Indianapolis. For what was dubbed a weak draft class, it’s encouraging to see this level of efficiency so early in the season. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson seemingly have more competition for targets, making their early performances all the more impressive. London, on the other hand, is single-handedly ruining the Kyle Pitts (10% TPRR in Week 2) fantasy breakout season.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown is good at football
Speaking of ruining fantasy tight ends…any concerns about Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s involvement with a healthy D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson have been emphatically resolved. The sun god has been the Lions’ version of Cooper Kupp, delivering a killer combination of elite volume and hyper-efficiency. Against Washington, St. Brown become only the third player in NFL history to record eight receptions in eight straight games (Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown were the other two.) The Lions should have plenty of opportunities to score points, and Amon-Ra is poised for a high-end WR1 season.
Three Warning Signs
That was the good. Now let’s take a gander at the lower end of the spectrum. Here are the bottom-25 players in TPRR in Week 2; we’re looking for players who are on the field but not doing much with the opportunity, so I’ve set the minimum at 30 routes run:
1. Allen Robinson is hard to trust
Yes, A-Rob came through in Week 2 and finished as a Top-24 receiver. The Rams made an effort to target him early; Matthew Stafford looked Robinson’s way on his first completion and for the opening touchdown. Later in the half, Robinson scored again, only to have the play waved off for a medical timeout. It was, on the surface, a bounce-back effort after an abysmal Week 1. When you look past the box score, the result isn’t as promising. Robinson’s 14% TPRR against Atlanta is an improvement, but it’s well behind teammates Cooper Kupp (38% TPRR) and Tyler Higbee (30% TPRR), and it’s considerably lower than the 20% threshold we like to see for receivers. If this inefficiency continues, Robinson will be more of a boom-bust than fantasy managers were hoping for when they drafted him.
2. Sell high on Jahan Dotson?
Dotson has paid off in a huge way for fantasy managers brave enough to start the rookie in Weeks 1 and 2. A two-touchdown performance in Week 1 was surprising, and a late score against Detroit salvaged a mediocre outing. Dotson’s final lines are impressive, but his TPRR dropped from 13% in the season opener to 8% in Week 2. History suggests that touchdown regression is coming. I like Dotson’s draft capital and talent for dynasty, but you might be able to cash in redraft leagues while the going’s good.
3. D-Jected Moore
DJ Moore has had a rough start to the season, and it might not get that much better. Yes, he secured a touchdown against the New York Giants, but Moore’s 17% TPRR is a troubling sign. Maybe the chemistry will develop with Baker Mayfield, but it’s hard to fire up Moore with the way things are going in Carolina. And no, I didn’t forget about the other Moore. Elijah Moore‘s season is going even worse than DJ’s. His fortunes could change if and when Zach Wilson comes back in Jersey, but Moore’s paltry 11% TPRR isn’t going to get it done. Garrett Wilson looks like the receiver to have on the Jets.