Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

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Aaaand, we’re back.  Week 1 gave us as many injuries as it did insights, and the MVPs were…kickers.

Just like we predicted, right?

Am I original? Yeah. Am I the only one? Yeahhhh. Am I sexual?* Not in this context, no. But the weekly Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) Report is Backstreet’s Back for 2024.** As a refresher, TPRR is a metric that expresses a player’s efficiency in earning those all-valuable targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to determine consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn those targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently have TPRRs upwards of 30%.

*Maybe the most awkward I’ve felt typing something. I don’t know how Nick Carter sang it again and again.
**Also, I miss the ’90s, when a boy band could do an unrelated “Thriller” knockoff dance routine for the first two minutes of a music video to show that, yes, now they’re serious artists. 

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If you’ve read any other fantasy articles already, you’ve been told not to overreact to a small sample size. So we’re going to keep it simple, let the data do the talking, and set a bar for the weeks to come. Let’s dive into some of Week 1’s biggest positive and negative outliers and how team situations could influence their fantasy outlook moving forward.

TPRR - Week 1 2024 - Top 20 table

TPRR – Week 1 2024 – Top 20

Week 1 Reactions

The Breakout Star: Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice picked up where he left off last season and dominated with a TPRR above 37% on Thursday Night Football. Xavier Worthy is a game-breaker, to be sure, but his usage (only three targets, 12.5% TPRR) implies much more of a boom-bust profile moving forward. Travis Kelce will have his big games, but he’s 34 years old and the Chiefs have no reason to wear him out in the regular season. It’s Rice who looks to have the reliable floor and the Patty Mahomes-enabled ceiling every game.

Opportunity Knocks: Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua (26.7%) and Cooper Kupp were trading off receptions on Sunday Night Football, both making a case as the WR1. Then Puka went down, and the breakfast buds were at it again. Nacua will miss the next four weeks after being placed on IR, and the Rams are going to throw. Kupp was targeted on 41% of his routes, which is insane (scientifically speaking, of course). Kupp is going to eat, but Tyler Johnson (21% TPRR) was the main beneficiary of Nacua’s absence. He’s on my waiver target list.

Tales of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated: Keenan Allen 

Ignore the stat line for Allen. A bad overthrow and an uncharacteristic drop in Week 1 ruined what should have been a solid week for Keenan Allen. It’s too early to know how things are going to shake out between D.J. Moore and Allen in Chicago, but a 30% TPRR for Allen shows that rookie Caleb Williams is looking his way.

Welcome to the NFL, Rookies

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The big three of Marvin Harrison Jr. (8% TPRR), Malik Nabers (14%), and Rome Odunze (17%) underwhelmed in Week 1, and it was Ladd McConkey (32%) who led the rookie class. Justin Herbert spread the ball around in what may be a low-volume offense, but it’s encouraging to see McConkey on the field for 22 of 27 possible receiving routes right from the start. His talent should be enough to separate him from Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston sooner rather than later.

Other Notes

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s TPRR was over 25% in 2023; he will be fine.
  • Don’t freak out about Chris Olave…yet. But keep an eye on Rashid Shaheed (26% TPRR).
  • Xavier Legette (30% TPRR) is another rookie who earned his targets, but the QB situation with Bryce Young renders those targets meaningless.
  • It’s nice to see Garrett Wilson (35% TPRR) getting 11 targets, but Aaron Rodgers really likes to throw to Allen Lazard (30% TPRR) in the end zone. I’m withholding judgment until I see the Jets face off against anyone other than the best defense in the league.

The full list:

Week 1 Targets Per Route Run – WR – Min 15 routes
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR
1 Cooper Kupp LA 51 21 41.2%
2 Rashee Rice KC 24 9 37.5%
3 Garrett Wilson NYJ 31 11 35.5%
4 Tyler Lockett SEA 20 7 35.0%
5 Tyreek Hill MIA 36 12 33.3%
5 Deebo Samuel SF 27 9 33.3%
5 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 21 7 33.3%
8 Ladd McConkey LAC 22 7 31.8%
8 George Pickens PIT 22 7 31.8%
10 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 19 6 31.6%
11 CeeDee Lamb DAL 29 9 31.0%
12 Greg Dortch ARZ 26 8 30.8%
12 Keenan Allen CHI 26 8 30.8%
14 Xavier Legette CAR 23 7 30.4%
15 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 37 11 29.7%
16 Allen Lazard NYJ 31 9 29.0%
17 Chris Godwin TB 28 8 28.6%
18 Adonai Mitchell IND 18 5 27.8%
19 Justin Jefferson MIN 26 7 26.9%
20 Jameson Williams DET 30 8 26.7%
20 Puka Nacua LA 15 4 26.7%
22 Rashid Shaheed NO 19 5 26.3%
22 Jauan Jennings SF 19 5 26.3%
24 Jonathan Mingo CAR 23 6 26.1%
25 Devaughn Vele DEN 31 8 25.8%
26 Nico Collins HST 32 8 25.0%
26 Jordan Addison MIN 16 4 25.0%
28 Brandin Cooks DAL 30 7 23.3%
29 A.J. Brown PHI 39 9 23.1%
30 Courtland Sutton DEN 48 11 22.9%
31 DJ Moore CHI 31 7 22.6%
32 Diontae Johnson CAR 27 6 22.2%
33 Jayden Reed GB 28 6 21.4%
33 Mike Evans TB 28 6 21.4%
35 Tank Dell HST 33 7 21.2%
35 Tyler Johnson LA 33 7 21.2%
37 Quentin Johnston LAC 24 5 20.8%
38 DeVonta Smith PHI 39 8 20.5%
39 Calvin Ridley TEN 35 7 20.0%
39 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 20 4 20.0%
41 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 31 6 19.4%
42 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 32 6 18.8%
42 Dontayvion Wicks GB 16 3 18.8%
44 Josh Reynolds DEN 43 8 18.6%
45 Keon Coleman BUF 27 5 18.5%
46 Jerry Jeudy CLV 44 8 18.2%
46 Christian Kirk JAX 22 4 18.2%
48 Christian Watson GB 28 5 17.9%
49 Stefon Diggs HST 34 6 17.6%
49 Tyler Boyd TEN 34 6 17.6%
49 Romeo Doubs GB 34 6 17.6%
52 Zay Flowers BLT 48 8 16.7%
52 Olamide Zaccheaus WAS 18 3 16.7%
54 Jaylen Waddle MIA 32 5 15.6%
55 Davante Adams LV 39 6 15.4%
55 D.K. Metcalf SEA 26 4 15.4%
57 Alec Pierce IND 20 3 15.0%
58 Demarcus Robinson LA 47 7 14.9%
59 Brandon Aiyuk SF 27 4 14.8%
59 Joshua Palmer LAC 27 4 14.8%
61 Andrei Iosivas CIN 35 5 14.3%
61 Tyquan Thornton NE 21 3 14.3%
61 Khalil Shakir BUF 21 3 14.3%
64 Malik Nabers NYG 50 7 14.0%
65 Adam Thielen CAR 29 4 13.8%
66 Terry McLaurin WAS 30 4 13.3%
67 Amari Cooper CLV 53 7 13.2%
68 Gabe Davis JAX 24 3 12.5%
68 Luke McCaffrey WAS 24 3 12.5%
68 Xavier Worthy KC 24 3 12.5%
71 Elijah Moore CLV 52 6 11.5%
72 Rashod Bateman BLT 45 5 11.1%
72 Braxton Berrios MIA 18 2 11.1%
74 Darnell Mooney ATL 28 3 10.7%
74 Rome Odunze CHI 28 3 10.7%
74 Drake London ATL 28 3 10.7%
77 Darius Slayton NYG 40 4 10.0%
77 Jalen McMillan TB 30 3 10.0%
77 Mack Hollins BUF 20 2 10.0%
80 Tre Tucker LV 33 3 9.1%
80 Demario Douglas NE 22 2 9.1%
80 Van Jefferson PIT 22 2 9.1%
80 Trenton Irwin CIN 22 2 9.1%
84 Chris Olave NO 23 2 8.7%
85 Jakobi Meyers LV 35 3 8.6%
86 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 36 3 8.3%
87 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 25 2 8.0%
88 Treylon Burks TEN 28 2 7.1%
89 Justin Watson KC 16 1 6.3%
89 Nelson Agholor BLT 16 1 6.3%
91 Michael Wilson ARZ 35 2 5.7%
92 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 18 1 5.6%
93 Cedric Tillman CLV 21 1 4.8%
94 Jahan Dotson PHI 24 1 4.2%
95 Jalen Tolbert DAL 25 1 4.0%
96 Michael Wilson ARZ 35 2 5.7%
97 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 18 1 5.6%
98 Cedric Tillman CLV 21 1 4.8%
99 Jahan Dotson PHI 24 1 4.2%
100 Jalen Tolbert DAL 25 1 4.0%

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