Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 14 (Fantasy Football)

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Note: Targets per Route Run (TPRR) is an efficiency metric (expressed as a percentage) used to highlight the correlation between performance and opportunity. With TPRR, we can look deeper than raw target totals to find players poised for breakouts or breakdowns. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s primer and AJ Passman’s 2022 season preview.

Week 13 Recap

Here’s a look at Week 13’s top 15 Targets Per Route Run (minimum 15 routes run).

Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR
1 Drake London ATL 22 12 54.5
2 Davante Adams LV 30 12 40.0
3 Nico Collins HOU 28 11 39.3
4 Tyreek Hill MIA 34 13 38.2
5 Amari Cooper CLE 24 9 37.5
6 Diontae Johnson PIT 31 10 32.3
7 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 39 12 30.8
8 Justin Jefferson MIN 37 11 29.7
9 Stefon Diggs BUF 32 9 28.1
10 Tutu Atwell LAR 18 5 27.8
11 Terry McLaurin WAS 44 12 27.3
12 Michael Gallup DAL 26 7 26.9
13 Mack Hollins LV 30 8 26.7
13 Alec Pierce IND 30 8 26.7
15 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 19 5 26.3

*Route and Target data via PFF.com

**Week 13 Monday Night Football data not available at time of writing

Five Takeaways

  • After taking a week off from the top 15, Davante Adams finds himself back near the top of the TPRR list. Adams has seen double-digit targets in 8-of-12 games and at least 11 in five straight weeks. The Carr-Adams connection seems to have given new life to a Raiders offense that hasn’t scored less than 20 points since being shut out in Week 8 and is riding a three-game win streak.
  • Michael Gallup finds himself making his second-straight appearance in the TPRR top 15. While the yardage that came with his four receptions on seven targets was meager, Gallup’s fantasy output was saved by two TD grabs against the Colts. It seems Gallup has been able to be fully reworked back into the Cowboys’ offense, but with the potential addition of Odell Beckham Jr. in Dallas, fantasy managers should be concerned about Gallup being a consistent option for their lineups.
  • Alec Pierce is an interesting name to see back in the top 15 for Week 13. Pierce saw his second-most targets on the season against the Cowboys and set a season-high 86 yards receiving. Since Matt Ryan’s return in Week 10, Pierce has alternated weeks with Michael Pittman as the leading WR in targets for the Colts, but Pierce’s floor feels much lower than Pittman’s due to the consistency of opportunities they’re seeing. 
  • An interesting name on the chart this week is Tutu Atwell. Atwell finishing 10th on the weekly chart is part of the TPRR metric that can be misleading. Atwell seeing a target on 27.8% of routes is a number you like to see, but he only turned that into two receptions and 48 yards. Not to mention, the Rams’ offense is a bit of a mess so while he may be someone to monitor, I wouldn’t put a lot of stock into his inclusion this week.
  • It’s encouraging to see Amon-Ra St. Brown still finished high in the TPRR metric after the return of Jameson Williams. Nobody thought that Williams would come in and immediately become the lead WR, but the Lions spent massive draft capital on Williams and I’d expect them to really want to see what they have in the rookie before the season ends. St. Brown should continue to be one of the league leaders in TPRR, but Williams being worked into this offense will be something to keep an eye on through the rest of the season.

The Season So Far

To help weed out some irrelevant data, I’ve set the bar to 40 targets on the season to be included for our purposes. The far right column shows the change in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 13:

Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR Change
1 Tyreek Hill MIA 387 127 32.8% 0
2 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 312 99 31.7% 0
3 Davante Adams LV 440 125 28.4% +3
4 CeeDee Lamb DAL 373 105 28.2% -1
5 Cooper Kupp LA 338 95 28.1% -1
6 Stefon Diggs BUF 444 124 27.9% -1
7 DeAndre Hopkins ARZ 231 63 27.3% 0
8 Chris Olave NO 336 88 26.2% +1
9 D.K. Metcalf SEA 385 99 25.7% -1
10 Drake London ATL 309 79 25.6% +4
11 Amari Cooper CLV 402 100 24.9% 0
12 Justin Jefferson MIN 484 120 24.8% -2
13 Chris Godwin TB 341 81 23.8% -1
14 A.J. Brown PHI 384 90 23.4% -1
15 Deebo Samuel SF 339 79 23.3% +1
16 Jaylen Waddle MIA 380 88 23.2% -1
17 Christian Watson GB 174 40 23.0% 0
18 Garrett Wilson NYJ 384 88 22.9% 0
19 Marquise Brown ARZ 304 69 22.7% -2
20 Nico Collins HST 286 64 22.4% +12

*Route and Target data via PFF.com

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**Week 13 Monday Night Football data not available at time of writing

Positives

  • Tyreek Hill has extended his lead outside of a full percent on the TPRR season-long total after Amon-Ra St. Brown closed the gap in Week 12. If there were any doubt that Hill was going to take home the 2022 TPRR crown, an injury to Jaylen Waddle should only mean more work for Hill down the stretch of the regular season.
  • An interesting name to monitor going forward is Nico Collins. Collins rose a dozen spots in the TPRR ranks after Week 13 saw him garner 10 targets. Since Week 10, Collins has averaged nine targets per week and has been a top-30 WR twice. The Texans’ lead WR role may not be the most valuable, but if Collins continues to see the majority of targets he may be a good FLEX play come playoff time. 

Negatives

  • Not seen in this week’s top-20 is Jakobi Meyers. Meyers has dropped four spots in the season-long totals over the last two weeks and saw only five targets on 24 routes run in Week 13. After several strong fantasy weeks in the first half of the season, Meyers hasn’t finished inside the top-35 WRs since Week 8.
  • Another free-falling receiver not in the season-long leaders is Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman only saw a target on 7.5% of routes run in Week 13 finishing as the WR75 on the week. Pittman has just three top-24 fantasy finishes heading into the Colts’ bye week and shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a FLEX candidate for the fantasy playoffs.

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