SuperFlex & 2QB Rankings for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Happy Halloween, FootClan! Welcome to Week 9 of our SuperFlex & 2QB discussion.
Macaulay Culkin dressed up as Joe Burrow for Halloween: pic.twitter.com/P4Z3PBrWt8
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 31, 2024
Bo Nix saved the day last week, while Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson were just one yard shy of hitting QB1 status. It truly is a game of inches, and hopefully those inches fall back in our favor this week!
| Player Highlighted | Week 8 Ranking | Week 8 Finish |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 13 | 23 |
| Bo Nix | 15 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 18 | 17 |
Two new QBs joined our list in Week 8, so if you’d be so kind, please give a warm welcome to: Justin Herbert & Jameis Winston! Through the first eight weeks of the season, we have now seen 34 different QB1 performances:
Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Malik Willis, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston
While the QB2 landscape was flush with upside last week, the Week 9 allotment forces us to dig a bit deeper. Today we’re diving into the depths of the rankings to find hidden upside, and as the midseason approaches, I’m excited to start throwing in some dynasty discussion as well.
As always, be sure to reference the Ballers Week 9 QB Rankings, and don’t forget to check for updates before kickoff!
14. Geno Smith
*UPDATE: As of Friday night, both DK Metcalf and Noah Fant have been ruled out for Sunday’s game. This will inhibit Geno’s upside in this game, and I’m expecting him to slide down the Ballers QB ranks by game time.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, Geno Smith leads the league in passing yards. What a world.
Unfortunately for our purposes, his eight to seven TD:INT ratio has him at just QB15 in PPG. With reports of the Seahawks trying to trade up for Michael Penix in this year’s draft, we were left unsure of Geno’s future in Seattle, but if you’ve had him as your QB2 this season, you should be pretty happy with the return (except for last week).
After a rough week in Buffalo, Geno looks to bounce back in a divisional matchup against a Rams team ranking 20th in PPG to opposing QBs. The Rams look rejuvenated with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returning from injury, but their defense (and specifically secondary) leaves plenty of opportunity for Seattle to attack this week.
Geno Smith on being frustrated late in Sunday’s game, “I’m really not a great loser, it sucks… At times I let my emotion show.” pic.twitter.com/UYRP2gTF4W
— John Boyle (@johnpboyle) October 31, 2024
The Rams’ defense has been improving as a unit as the season progresses, but (assuming full health) they don’t have the firepower to shut down this elite Seattle WR trio, who all project favorably in this matchup. All three of L.A.’s starting CBs rank 56th or below (of 108 qualified) in PFF’s coverage rating, and their two starting safeties also rank 55th or below (of 86 qualified). At least on paper, there should be plenty of room to roam in this secondary.
TE Noah Fant also presents sneaky upside, as the Rams rank dead last in PPG to opposing TEs. Fant may never be the breakout star we had hoped for from the former first-round pick, but he had been picking up steam in Weeks 6 and 7, gaining 63 and 65 yards, respectively. He is projected to be covered by LB Christian Rozeboom this week, who is PFF’s 75th-ranked LB (of 80 qualified players), and is a solid DFS dart throw.
Geno’s highlight reel since becoming the starter quietly includes a bunch of really smooth plays to Noah Fant. Usually it’s a dime from the pocket but here you have a Make Things Happen moment on 3rd/7 (drive ended with a TD). pic.twitter.com/94nfxPAKPn
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) October 22, 2024
Unfortunately, despite this being a solid matchup on paper, this take comes with a lot of contingencies:
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DK Metcalf has not practiced since suffering a knee sprain in Week 7. He was not on the field on Wednesday or Thursday, however, HC Mike MacDonald stated it’s “looking optimistic” that he will be available on Sunday, via the team’s website. Naturally, his availability raises (or lowers) the ceiling significantly for Geno.
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After a limited practice on Wednesday, Noah Fant (groin) did not participate in practice on Thursday. We’re unsure if this is maintenance-related or an injury suffered during Wednesday’s practice, but it will also be worth monitoring.
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Former starting tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant have both returned to practice this week, posting limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. PFF has Seattle ranked 30th in their offensive line play this season, so either/both of these players returning would provide significant upgrades to Geno’s protection.
The Seahawks are +1.5 home underdogs with a team-implied total of 23.5 (13th). With the third-highest O/U on the slate (48.5), this game could very well become a shootout, but the status of all of the above bullet points will be important to monitor into the weekend. This is the perfect game script for two teams fighting for a division currently at a stalemate, with Geno projected to be playing catch-up when it’s all said and done.
Dynasty Take: Everyone is quick to jump on the Geno hate train, but I think he’s a cheap and valuable buy if you’re a contender. While the long-term future is still uncertain, he is likely the cheapest QB in the Kirk Cousins/Matthew Stafford range, currently being valued as a mid-2025 second-round pick on KeepTradeCut. Keep in mind that if you truly are a contender, that second should be a late one when it’s all said and done.
Although the 12th man is hysterically crying for a new QB, there are no starting-caliber QBs set to hit free agency next year (outside of Sam Darnold), and there is absolutely no reason for the Seahawks to pursue a Geno/Darnold swap.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “But what if they draft a QB?” Well, truthfully, that’s what they should do.
At this moment, Seattle is projected for the 13th pick, which could very well put them in play for a QB. However, with Geno on a reasonable contract (compared to most other QBs), there is plenty of reason to believe he will be with the team next year, even if they do opt to draft someone. With the emergence of Jordan Love and the recent benching of Anthony Richardson, more and more teams are recognizing the importance of the “draft and develop strategy,” and with a first-time head coach at the reins, my gut tells me he’d want to adopt this mentality as well – at least for the first half of the season.
And if for some reason he does hit the open market, he has proven himself valuable enough to serve in a Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett style role for the next few years, serving as a mentor for young QBs on one-year deals. Of course, these situations are not ideal, but they do still hold value in dynasty.
He reminds me a lot of Tua Tagovailoa, who led the league in passing last year, but will never truly earn the respect of the community. Geno is leading the league in passing, is PFF’s 11th-ranked QB, and is doing so while playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. He is likely never going to lead a team to a Super Bowl, but he’s been more than serviceable in SuperFlex leagues and is probably your cheapest option of anyone in that range.
With that said, if you’ve got Geno and your team is out of the playoff picture, it’s time to identify someone with a need at QB, and find a way to move on.
GENO SMITH 34-YARD TD RUN.
📺: #DENvsSEA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/3EsyP3rbfe— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
20. Bo Nix
Welp, we were right.
We were right about Bo Nix hitting his ceiling last week, coming in as the QB2 overall. We were right about him taking advantage of a depleted Panther defense, setting career highs in completions (28), completion rate (75.7%), passing yards (285), and touchdowns (three).
But most importantly, we were right about my entire Sean Payton rant.
Jaycee Horn went after Sean Payton for running a fake field goal in a 28-7 game
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 28, 2024
Nix has hit his stride recently, averaging 21.9 PPG over the past four weeks, putting him as the QB4 in that timeframe. While none of the defenses he’s encountered have been especially intimidating, Nix will have the opportunity to truly show what he’s made of in Week 9, as the Broncos travel to Baltimore for what Payton considers their “toughest challenge yet.”
While the Ravens’ run defense has been among the league’s best, their secondary has been short-staffed and underperforming thus far, ranking 30th in PPG to opposing QBs and allowing over 20 PPG to QBs in four straight weeks. According to PFF, they rank 19th in coverage grade (59.0), 23rd in catch rate allowed (72%), 27th in EPA per play allowed (.124), and 32nd in explosive pass plays allowed (19.3%).
That, my friends, is what we like to call a “pass funnel.”
Now, it is very important to note that although we all loved Jameis Winston’s breakout performance (and post-game speech) last week, the Ravens were down starting CB Nate Wiggins (illness), and even more importantly, PFF’s third-overall ranked coverage CB, Marlon Humphrey (knee). As of Thursday afternoon, Wiggins has returned to practice as a full participant, and Humphrey has been practicing in a limited fashion. Nix remains a viable option regardless, but the status of Humphrey should certainly be monitored into the weekend.
While we like all the underlying metrics in regards to Nix this week, Vegas projects Denver at a lowly team-implied total of 19, barely ahead of the Panthers and Patriots. This is a discouraging number, however, as +8.5 underdogs, it also signifies that we can expect one of (if not the) highest volume games we’ve seen from Nix, who holds a safe floor due to his average of 32.4 yards/game on the ground.
First Broncos QB ever to have 3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and 0 INTs in a single game and just the 7th rookie QB in NFL history. 🤯
Vote for QB Bo Nix for NFL Rookie of the Week » https://t.co/j6VsuVvsN8 pic.twitter.com/vTkFv5aMVR
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 30, 2024
Although I’m still hesitant to consider Nix a better-than-average real life QB, he has undeniably shown progression on his way to a 5-3 start in Denver, and presents low-end QB1 upside once again this week. With that said, if he can walk into Baltimore and ball out against a team coached by John Harbaugh, I may have to change my tune a bit about this Denver rebuild.
Dynasty Take: Nix is difficult to value in terms of dynasty. He has climbed the ranks over the past few weeks, and it is likely going to take a haul for the manager to move a young, ascending QB.
For discussion’s sake, he has moved up to QB16, equaling in value to Jared Goff, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, or a 2025 mid-first. The Broncos have no money to spend right now, but are projected to have approximately $73 million (11th) to spend next year, which should only improve the skill positions around him, and at least on paper, make him a better player.
Dynasty is played in two to three-year windows, and Nix has already shown his ability to perform at a young age with little supporting cast. QB is (arguably) the most important position in SuperFlex leagues, so it’s hard to argue with any of the above prices, however, if you’re going after Nix, my advice would be to wait a few weeks.
This hot streak is coming off the backs of games against the Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Panthers. Outside of the Chargers, this is a fairly weak defensive schedule, however, the next few games against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons may present a better opportunity. I’d personally wait until at least after the Chiefs game, and see if the manager’s sky-high expectations have come back down.
Bo Nix was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Month for October.
Among rookie, Bo Nix had the most:
Passing touchdowns: 7
Passing yards: 870
Rushing TDs: 2
TD to INT ratio: 7/1
And he tied for the most wins: 3 pic.twitter.com/X09ueyHeA2— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) October 31, 2024
24. Justin Herbert
Now, before we begin, I’m going to admit that I am a Justin Herbert truther.
For fantasy purposes, this is a player who has finished as a QB1 in three of his four years as a starter. Maybe I’m biased, but I personally have an asterisk on his QB17 finish last year, due to him playing almost the entire season with a fractured finger, and eventually missing the final four games due to another fractured finger. For what it’s worth, he was still the QB11 in PPG, and if we extrapolated his 18.5 PPG for the remaining four games, he would have finished as the QB6 between Jordan Love and Brock Purdy.
For real-life purposes, he has been top six in passing yards and top 10 in touchdowns in three of four years as well. He has only missed four games in four years, and has underrated athleticism, averaging 227.8 yards on the ground in that time. Our extremely impatient “what have you done for me lately?” world seems to have forgotten just how good Justin Herbert has been from the moment team doctors punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung during pregame warmups.
The Chargers’ team doctor accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung just before kickoff Sunday while trying to administer a pain-killing injection to the QB’s cracked ribs, sources told @AdamSchefter.
The NFL Players Association is investigating the medical mishap. pic.twitter.com/Sbr2cEo0UK
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 23, 2020
The fantasy argument has always been related to volume, which has predictably and drastically gone down this year in the Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman regime. In the past four years under Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley, Herbert was tasked with being the hero, averaging 39.1 pass attempts/game and doing everything he could to bail out an incredible amount of ineptitude from this team and coaching staff.
I’ve never seen a more stubborn coach in sports than Brandon Staley. Refuses to believe his defensive scheme is cooked. pic.twitter.com/Tfl68TmeJU
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) November 19, 2023
However, this year, Jim Harbaugh has immediately turned things around, flipping a bottom-dwelling defense (allowing 23.4 PPG, ranking 24th) into a top-tier unit (allowing 13.0 PPG, ranking first), and installing a more balanced offensive approach resulting in just 28 pass attempts/game. We’ve always known this would be the case, but despite ranking QB26 in PPG, I am not wavering on Herbert’s long-term value.
The Browns (like Baltimore) have historically been a team to avoid, but rank just 18th in PPG against QBs this season, and are likely to be missing their highest-rated coverage CB Denzel Ward (concussion), as well as top LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (neck), who currently ranks eighth overall of 81 qualified LBs. It’s also worth noting that LB Jordan Hicks (elbow) has yet to resume practicing, and DE Za’Darius Smith (illness) is working through illness, after not practicing on Wednesday. The absence of each one of these players would provide significant blows to the Cleveland defense.
Although Herbert’s ceiling isn’t the QB2 overall it was a few years ago, he has been on an upward trajectory these past few weeks, culminating with the QB9 finish in Week 8. The Chargers are right in the middle with a team-implied total of 22 this week but will be getting back Quentin Johnston and the Browns’ defense is appearing more and more vulnerable as the week goes on. We know Harbaugh wants to run the ball, but if the touchdowns can fall his way, I think his ranking at QB24 may be a bit too low this week.
INSANE: Justin Herbert stiff-armed a 270-
pound d-lineman and while falling backwards threw an absolute dime.🤯
One of the best plays, you’ll see all season. A MAN AMONGST BOYS TYPE OF PLAY. pic.twitter.com/XBfRDrfLtx
— Trader Aaron (@Vrabel56) October 30, 2024
Dynasty Take: With a young and questionable WR core (don’t act like you hadn’t given up on Quentin Johnston), Herbert has still proven extremely efficient this season, with an eight to one TD:INT ratio and a 4-3 start to this Chargers rebuild. With over $77 million in projected 2025 cap space, we have to believe this team will be in the market for an elite WR, whether it’s Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, or potentially opting for another in the draft. Herbert is just 26 years old and is one of those players who elevates everyone around him, as we’ve already seen this year.
The volume and ceiling may never be the same as it once was, but he is still one of the most talented QBs in the league. If there is even the slightest window to buy him (especially as my QB2), I am taking it.
The highest-graded player in the NFL across all positions over the past two weeks:#Chargers QB Justin Herbert – 95.0
(via @PFF) pic.twitter.com/Y5GxsRBh1Y
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 30, 2024