SuperFlex & 2QB Rankings for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back FootClan—and congratulations to those of you still in your fantasy playoffs!
I hope you read our Jameis Winston caveat last week because outside of his benching, we had another outstanding week in our QB1 projections. Today, we’ll address three more QBs (ranked outside the Ballers’ top 12) who hold QB1 and DFS upside in Week 16.
| Player Highlighted | Week 15 Ranking | Week 15 Finish |
| Jameis Winston | 14 | 33 (lol) |
| Jordan Love | 17 | 12 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 21 | 4 |
With no new names to add, we’re sitting still at 39 QB1 performances through Week 15 of the 2024 season. With just three weeks to go, do you think we will go over or under the 46 QB1 performances in 2023?
Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Malik Willis, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes, Will Levis, Cooper Rush, Bryce Young, Mac Jones
Be sure to check the Week 16 QB rankings before kickoff, and as a reminder, the Ultimate DFS Pass is now 50% off, which is something we can all be thankful for! Now, let’s get down to business.
14. Aaron Rodgers
You may not like Aaron Rodgers, but he is nothing if not entertaining.
Aaron Rodgers: Say whatever you want about me, but be sure to state your pronouns and your vaccination status 🔥 pic.twitter.com/LD9UZAEG6k
— Grant Taylor (@grantltaylor) December 18, 2024
I mean, this is bordering Russell Wilson status. Even Pat McAfee wasn’t interested in where this rant was going.
Anywho, we’re here to talk fantasy, and it’s important in this industry to be able to separate real-life performances from fantasy finishes. We all know the Jets have had a(nother) miserable season, but quietly over their past four games, Rodgers has settled in at QB11 in PPG. He most certainly does not have the accuracy or athleticism that he once had, but he’s playing well enough to put up low-end QB1 numbers, and I like his odds again this week against the Rams.
The Rams’ secondary is young, inexperienced, and most importantly, beatable. Say what you want about Rodgers, but the skill players he’s surrounded with are playing at an elite level, and it is clear that he is going to hyper-target and ride off into the sunset with his best friend, Davante Adams. I’d be excited to start both him and Garrett Wilson in a positive game script, against a Rams secondary ranking 22nd in PPG to WRs.
AARON RODGERS TO DAVANTE ADAMS FOR THE 71-YARD TD TO TAKE THE LEAD 😱
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/Fn1FvWGG95— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 15, 2024
The RB room is still murky, with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis all only able to practice on a limited basis as of Thursday. With nothing on the line, I’m not entirely sure why Breece Hall was playing through injury last week, but he was able to turn 11 touches into 51 yards and salvaged his fantasy day with a late touchdown. He’ll likely be on the field again this week, but an injury-riddled backfield may force the team into a few extra looks downfield, which is saying a lot for a team that already averages 34.9 pass attempts/game.
As 3.0-point underdogs, the Jets are projected a team-implied total of 21.75 points (17th) and are projected to be playing from behind. I’m growing more and more fond of this game environment, as well as more and more excited for a highlight-reel afternoon on both sides of the ball.
(after review) HOLY ONE-HAND GARRETT FREAKING WILSON TOUCHDOOOOOWN❕❕❕#HOUvsNYJ on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/htLVwK7TA6
— New York Jets (@nyjets) November 1, 2024
15. Matthew Stafford
Congratulations to those of you who survived the Cooper Kupp goose egg last week, but even more so, congratulations to those of you who are here because of it.
In Week 16, the Rams travel east to face the aforementioned hapless Jets, who have apparently been ranking players via the Madden system.
Joe Douglas had an offseason trade lined up for then-Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy.
Jets owner Woody Johnson did his own research — on Madden — and decided Jeudy wasn’t worth the price, a source said.
More from @DMRussini, @ZackBlatt and @MikeSilver: https://t.co/KZ8dROhyCl pic.twitter.com/1KtbePGole
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 19, 2024
I certainly didn’t expect to be targeting Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed in the fantasy playoffs this season, but after watching Mac Jones finish as the QB8 (without Evan Engram), I’m finally coming around. The Jets’ defense has been a disaster all season, and we can now safely say that Robert Saleh was not the issue.
There does feel like a large range of outcomes due to the amount of talent the Jets have on defense, but it’s hard to ignore the numbers over the past month, finishing 14th in explosive plays allowed rate, 22nd in yards allowed per coverage snap, 30th in EPA allowed per play, and are 19th in PPG to opposing QBs on the season. They simply have not lived up to their potential and are playing poorly as a unit, which has allowed plenty of opportunity for offensive success this season.
The Jets have a plethora of injuries to report as of Thursday, but most notably, S Jalen Mills (collarbone) has been put on IR, while CB Michael Carter (back) and DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) have both been unable to practice as of Thursday. If Williams is unable to play, Stafford should find himself far more comfortable in the pocket, as his offensive line is currently the healthiest it has been all season.
Where this prediction may fail: The Rams will be traveling east in mid-December, which is always something that concerns me for fantasy purposes. This game is projected to be played in the mid-20s, with gusts upward of 20 MPH. This is typically something I would avoid for QBs, but Vegas has the Rams’ team-implied total at 24.75, and Stafford has plenty of experience playing in these conditions.
The question, as always, comes down to where the touchdowns will fall. As 3.0-point favorites, we may see a third straight 30+ touch day for Kyren Williams, but I believe the Jets will keep this game close enough to keep Stafford in passing situations, giving him a high floor and ceiling in round two of the fantasy playoffs.
Keep an eye out for our Week 16 weather reports, and be sure to monitor the conditions as game time approaches.
“Washed” Matthew Stafford this season:
4,167 Yards
27 TDs
6 INTs pic.twitter.com/TU8KKuKhX5— 𝙅𝙅𝙅 𝙎𝙕𝙉🐻🎄 (@JJJ_DPOY) December 17, 2024
19. Caleb Williams
Early this season, I wrote about my concerns for Caleb Williams, which were highlighted by a player who seemingly hasn’t had to overcome that much (we’re strictly talking football here). He has been the best player on the field his entire life, and I, for one, think some adversity is going to be healthy for the first-overall pick. That is what separates the bads from the goods and the goods from the greats.
Caleb Williams looking real lonely on that bench pic.twitter.com/aRvNG4PLvt
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) November 10, 2024
And if you’ve followed along this season, you may also remember me stating (just a few weeks ago) that our expectations are likely too high for this team—and specifically this offense—for the rest of the season.
The Bears (deservedly) lost their offensive coordinator and their head coach—with their passing game coordinator being thrust into the role of interim head coach in an impossible-to-succeed meteoric rise. This is an absurd ask for someone to take on midseason, especially if that someone is completely underqualified to be a head coach. This is a lose-lose situation for everyone involved, and we as a fantasy community need to recognize that and have some gosh darn patience.
This week, Chicago will stay at home to take on an absolutely depleted, duct-taped-together version of the Lions’ defense, who now lead the league with 16 defensive players on IR. I’m not going to run down the entire list, but it has and will affect the team at every defensive position, from top to bottom. I am still rooting for the Lions as a Super Bowl contender this year, but it’s hard not to feel a bit deflated after last week’s loss to Buffalo.
Whether you believe in Caleb or not, this is the ideal game script for a ceiling fantasy performance. We can be absolutely certain the Lions are going to do their part on offense (team-implied total of 27), and as 6.5-point underdogs, there’s a reasonable chance Caleb sets a career-high in pass attempts.
With a healthy trio of DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, the Bears’ offense should be able to rely on talent alone to put up points. And without Detroit’s studs on the defensive line, Chicago’s offensive line is heavily favored in PFF’s passing and rushing metrics, leaving Caleb with plenty of time to make his reads, and potentially make plays on the ground with his athleticism.
While you all are pissing and moaning about the state of the Bears, I’ll be watching Caleb Williams film and smiling ear to ear about the future.
He is the MFin’ hall. 🐻⬇️CLAW⬆️ pic.twitter.com/hV3SDQj8V7
— IDF (@IDF162) December 18, 2024
Just like Trevor Lawrence, the expectations for Caleb Williams were sky-high coming into the season, and it simply hasn’t panned out.
But that’s just what happens sometimes. There is a learning curve in the NFL. It takes time to develop. Most are quick to forget that Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions his rookie year, but I’d be willing to bet that most of you would agree it was smart to trust in his development, rather than just labeling him a bust and/or trading him away for scraps. The future is yet to be seen for Caleb, but he will have a new coaching staff and a fresh start in year two, so I’m more than willing to wait and see.
The way people are hating on Caleb Williams would make you think he’s the biggest bust in NFL history.
But let’s look at the stats
3,200 yards
17 TD
5 INTPeople will bring up the record but will fail to realize the coaching staff has lost multiple games on their own. pic.twitter.com/Hnm9JO7g9Q
— jaymani🥷🏾 (@CALEBW1LL1AMS) December 18, 2024