SuperFlex & 2QB Rankings for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
You’ve done it! You survived the grueling offseason. It finally is football time.
Touchdown!! Pacheco, my beloved, dance that dancy dance! pic.twitter.com/rY6Lyg5g39
— Ash (@ObsidianDraconi) September 6, 2024
Before we begin, I’d like to address the purpose of this article.
Our intention here is not to address the low-hanging fruit but to dive deeper into the QB rankings. We’re not here to discuss standard leagues, but to help those of you in 2QB, SuperFlex, and dynasty leagues with your QB2 decisions. We’re here to address the good, the bad, and the cringe-worthy, to help identify three to four QBs ranked outside the Ballers’ top 12 who carry week-winning upside. It’s going to get ugly, but an ugly win is still a win.
We’re so excited for you to join us this season! Click here to view the Ballers’ QB Rankings!
14. Matthew Stafford
We open the season with a rematch from the ’23 playoffs, where the Lions held off the Rams 24-23 in the Wild Card game.
You may remember the Lions as the ideal fantasy opponent last season. Their combination of high-powered offense, stout defensive line, and thin secondary led to fantasy gold for opposing QBs. This was even on display in said playoff game, with Stafford posting 367 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
The Lions recognized their glaring weakness, heavily addressing the CB position this offseason. They acquired Carlton Davis III via trade with Tampa Bay, then signed Amik Robertson of the Raiders in free agency. They weren’t done, however, spending their first two draft picks on defensive backs in Terrion Armstead and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. They were able to plug the giant hole in their roster, and now enter the season boasting PFF’s 11th-ranked secondary.
While this represents a huge upgrade on paper, it often takes time for a secondary to meld together. Despite this revamped secondary, PFF still projects Puka Nacua as the second-highest WR mismatch on the week, with Cooper Kupp also projecting well across the board.
And let’s not forget the most important fantasy metric of all: The Revenge Game! (which I suppose applies to both sides).
In a dome, with the highest over/under on the week (52.5), this game comes in three full points above any other game. The Rams are tied for eighth in team-implied total (24), and as +4.5 underdogs, Vegas is projecting them to be stretching the field in the end. With a healthy duo of Puka and Kupp, there is plenty of reason to expect 30+ pass attempts from Stafford, as he continues the impressive final act of his career.
This angle of Matthew Stafford’s no-look pass. 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/vwWRUsMekn
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 14, 2022
15. Baker Mayfield
Last year’s QB10 on the season enters 2024 with a dream matchup against the Washington Commanders.
While the Bucs’ offense looks exactly the same, the Commanders’ 31st-ranked (fantasy) secondary last season has gotten arguably worse. They lost Kendall Fuller to the Dolphins and Kamren Curl to the Rams in free agency, with their highest-graded returning player as cornerback Quan Martin, who produced a 58.8 grade in ’23. They brought in Michael Davis from the Chargers and drafted Michigan’s Mike Sainristil in round two, but this defense is in a full rebuild, and Baker has every opportunity to exploit that.
With PFF’s 20th-ranked defensive line and 30th-ranked secondary, there is little to fear about the Commanders’ defense where it stands today. The Bucs come in tied for eighth with a team-implied total of 24, while Baker looks to build on his career revitalization with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Am I the only one who realizes Baker Mayfield was an absolute BEAST last NFL season?
1. The ONLY Quarterback who had TWO Playoff games over 300 yards passing
2. Bucs were universally projected for 4-5 wins… instead Baker led them to a division title AND impressive Playoff… pic.twitter.com/zdHdCp16tR
— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) August 31, 2024
20. Geno Smith
2022’s Comeback Player of the Year struggled mightily last season, finishing ’23 as QB19 overall, and QB25 in PPG.
The run-heavy Pete Carroll regime has ended in Seattle, being replaced with defensive mastermind Mike Macdonald at head coach and Washington University’s Ryan Grubb taking over as offensive coordinator. Although it’s unlikely that Geno is in the team’s long-term plans, there has been nothing but excitement from the Seattle camp this offseason, with all reports confirming Geno’s control of this new-look offense. In Grubb’s new offensive system, we can expect not only a more balanced offensive approach, but far more three WR sets, getting DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and breakout candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba all on the field together, with former first-round pick Noah Fant rounding out this talented receiving group.
Denver finished in the middle of the pack against fantasy QBs last season and comes in as PFF’s 16th-ranked secondary amidst a full rebuild. While Patrick Surtain II remains their lockdown CB, there remains plenty of uncertainty with a new surrounding cast. We’ll have to wait and see which version of Ja’Quan McMillian shows up against JSN this week, but DK and Lockett both project well across the board.
The Seahawks have a team-implied point total of 23.5, and if the Broncos can keep this game close, this could be an excellent opportunity for Geno to build on a strong finish to last season.
What you see is Geno Smith and DK Metcalf playing BIG BOY BALL. What I see is Geno Smith and new Seahawks OC Ryan Grub cooking up 7 course meals all year with all the offensive weapons they have. Buckle up 12s it should be a fun ride this year #GoHawks pic.twitter.com/4qDbj9WlfY
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) August 25, 2024
24. Derek Carr
And now onto the cringe-worthy!
Carr finished the ’23 season surprisingly hot, finishing as the QB5 over the final five games. His connection with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson looked on point, as most casual fans will forget/overlook that he was battling injuries the entire season. I’m not going to defend Carr entirely, because we all know what he is at this point in his career – but I’d be willing to bet most QBs would struggle with a bottom-dwelling offensive line, two concussions, and a sprained AC joint in our throwing shoulder.
Just sayin’.
In Week 1, a healthy Derek Carr and the Saints will host the Carolina Panther’s 32nd (or dead last) ranked secondary. While my personal expectations are still tempered on this offense, the fantasy community is psyched for new OC Klint Kubiak to implement a faster, more modern scheme, presumably to the benefit of stud WR Chris Olave.
While Alvin Kamara has recently listed his New Orleans home for sale, there have been few reports of formal trade talks, leading me to assume he will be out there in Week 1 to receive his usual 30-70 dump-offs/game. If he is unavailable due to personal reasons or a recent illness that has popped up, I would probably remove Carr from this list entirely, and opt for the next choice listed below.
Meanwhile, Rashid Shaheed continues to gain steam in the fantasy community, Juwan Johnson has returned from foot surgery, and Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill continues to do his best to annoy us at the most unpredictable and inopportune moments.
The Saints are projected a middling team-implied 22.5 points, but with the league’s worst-ranked offensive line, they may be forced into a pass-heavy game script to reach it. It certainly won’t feel good, but there is a glimmer of hope if you absolutely need to deploy Carr as your QB2 in Week 1.
Derek Carr in his last game:
22/28
264 YDs
4 TDs
145.5 RatingIs Derek Carr breaking out in New Orleans, can Kubiak bring out even more?
pic.twitter.com/KW8jv9jekK https://t.co/W3RzARP2Ix
— aidan🧘🌊 (@MVPrielipp) September 3, 2024
25. Sam Darnold
We all know Sam Darnold is not the long-term plan in Minnesota, but with the unfortunate injury to JJ McCarthy, he is going to be the guy in 2024. The dynasty community has valued Darnold at about the price of a sandwich, but we’ve seen lesser talent put up great (fantasy) performances in Minnesota.
I have to specify “fantasy” performance when I mention Nick Mullens because he made some of the most ill-advised throws I’ve ever seen last season. Announcers call him a “gunslinger,” but the dude is pure chaos. No matter what we think of him, he was amazing for fantasy and still finished as the QB10 from Weeks 15-18 to close out the season.
Stop acting like Nick Mullens won’t step in and throw for 420 yards, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles and lose a close game to a really good team if we need him to.#Vikings pic.twitter.com/jBJDoPS0z6
— 7-10/46-36 (@TheSkolWarrior) September 1, 2024
While the Giants did address the CB position in the second round of this year’s draft, they have nobody on their roster who can handle Justin Jefferson. Because let’s be real: No one does.
In fact, Jefferson is the only person ranked above Puka in PFF’s WR/CB matchups for Week 1.
TJ Hockenson won’t be available to start the season, however, sophomore WR Jordan Addison proved competent as a WR2 (at least on the field), and will look to build on his 10-touchdown rookie campaign. The team also invested in Aaron Jones this offseason, who excelled as a pass catcher in Green Bay, averaging 58 receptions/year over the past five seasons. Even without Hockenson, this team is well-equipped to handle the Giants’ secondary.
Darnold may not be the elite talent many expected after being drafted with the third overall pick (2018), but he is a competent game manager and a significant upgrade from Mullens. Similarly to SF and Miami, we have to love whoever is starting in Minnesota’s QB-friendly, star-studded, Kevin O’Connell system (at least for fantasy), which is the sole reason JJ McCarthy shot up rookie draft boards, ahead of far better prospect profiles such as Drake Maye.
The Vikings team-implied point total sits at just 21.5 (21st), but this is an exploitable matchup against PFF’s 31st-ranked secondary. The game script may not be in Darnold’s favor (-1.5 favorites), but if O’Connell wants to set the tone for the season, perhaps he’ll use this as an opportunity to unleash his superstars early and often.
WOAH! @kurt13warner thinks @Vikings QB Sam Darnold will have the best debut in week 1 with their new team 👀
“I believe he goes into New York and has a great performance in week 1”
🎥: @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/R0LhVLFAkt
— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) September 4, 2024
Comments
Great in-depth coverage for deeper QB plays. Awesome analysis and easily digestible!
Thanks, Nick!!