Statistical Thresholds to Consider for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)

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What insights can we bring into Week 1 that can actually help fantasy managers?

It’s easy to celebrate. It’s easy to tilt. 

We don’t want to overreact to Week 1 but Mike shared on Thursday’s Week 1 Starts episode a few statistical thresholds to consider for RBs, WRs, and TEs. 

Runningbacks

For RBs, we know that availability is an ability in fantasy. It is the easiest position to project for volume.

Jason mentioned this in the 10 Tips & Tricks Episode:

  • RBs who see fewer than 13 carries in Week 1 tend to suck on the season.
  • Since 2011, guys who see fewer than 13 carries in Week 1 average 465 total rush yds & 3.3 rush TDs all season. 70% score four TDs or fewer.

Names to monitor for that 13 carry mark

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Wide Receivers

We talk all the time about targets being an earned statistic. It shows how WRs get open and establish themselves as true separators. If they are trusted, do they demand a healthy target share from their QBs?

Writer AJ Passman recently expanded our research on Targets Per Route Run which definitely paints an even better picture of targets.

Over the last FIVE years, only 10% of WRs finishing in the top-24 had fewer than five targets in Week 1. The notable exceptions were  rookies lower on depth chart (Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and veteran Slow Starters (Mike Evans)

Names to monitor for that 5 target mark:

Tight-Ends

For TEs, targets can be hard to come by. Often they are not the primary target and being called on to block might be helpful for a real-life NFL team, but your fantasy team won’t get points for that.

One of the better stats to look at in Week 1 is routes run. Over the last five years, 85% of the TEs that finished the season in the top-8 ran at least 23 routes in Week 1.

Names to monitor for that 23 routes run threshold:

Comments

Ryan Aguirre says:

Does anyone know where I can find the tight end routes stats?

Mark says:

Henderson though… 13 Carries plus targets…

Curtis says:

Allen Robinson II and that Matthew Stafford connection… No bueno

Tom says:

so much for Cam Akers then, haha . . . 3 carries, Game 1 . . .

Parker Davis says:

These are next level.

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