Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

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Happy Football Season!

If you are new to this column, the goal here is to look for playing time trends to help with waiver wire transactions, start/sit decisions, etc. I focus on notable playing times or playing time changes that I saw from looking at snap percentages week-to-week and watching the games.

Typically, I ignore playing time that more or less corresponds to the team’s official depth chart. After the first few weeks, a lot of teams fall into predictable patterns, and I do not tend to write about the predictable playing time patterns. As such, injuries play a big role in how this column develops over the year.

With all those disclaimers, let’s get into it!

Washington Commanders

Austin Ekeler 52%; Jeremy McNichols 23%; Jacory Croskey-Merritt 22%

It was extremely disappointing to see JCM receive such low snap numbers immediately after getting some hype from like likes of Jeremy Fowler before the game. He barely played and was used even less (four carries, one target).

Patience is likely the key word here with “Bill”. He is a 7th-round rookie who surprised everyone with how quickly he became a factor. Moreover, the Commanders were playing behind for the entire game against the Packers, who appear to have a very strong defense (especially considering they held down the Lions offense, who just scored 52 yesterday). Gamescript favored Austin Ekeler far more than JCM.

As for McNichols, I think the team trusts him a bit more than Bill in pass protection. McNichols did not see any carries or targets, so I am guessing he has a better grasp of pass protection after Ekeler got hurt. He does not appear to be a real threat to Bill’s carries or targets.

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With Ekeler out for the season, Croskey-Merritt will almost certainly see more opportunities. I am not exactly sure what his ceiling is, but it could be very high, so my advice is to wait and see. This feels a lot like Antonio Gibson‘s rookie year (remember Gibson started the year behind J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber).

Conclusion: Hold Bill and see how the Ekeler injury affects the Washington backfield.

Denver Broncos

Troy Franklin 83%; Courtland Sutton 78%; Marvin Mims 36%

Well, this is very surprising.

Troy Franklin received the highest snap share of any Broncos WR, and he was great, catching eight balls and a TD. Not only did he outplay Courtland Sutton, he out-targeted him more than 2:1 (nine targets to four). Importantly, Franklin saw his snap percentage bump from 59% to 83%. He’s a full-time player now.

Franklin is exactly the type of player we look for when hoping to find an early breakout. He has the team’s trust, his college production was strong, and he’s a second-year wide receiver. If he is on your waiver wire, I would spend big.

Courtland Sutton isn’t likely to always have dud games, but it appears that Marvin Mims will remain a low-usage gadget type. He’s very effective with his opportunities, but I’d rather have the player always on the field in Franklin. Franklin could be a very nice pickup.

Conclusion: Troy Franklin is a priority waiver add this week.

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Carolina Panthers

Hunter Renfrow 81%

It appears as though the Panthers have found their Adam Thielen replacement. Renfrow was only outsnapped by Tetairoa McMillan, and Hunter caught nine targets. Renfrow does what he always does: get open and catch shorter passes. I wouldn’t expect two TDs from him every week, but the nine targets and seven catches are hard to ignore.

Conclusion: Renfrow is a decent low-ceiling add if you are in a bye week pinch soon.

New York Giants

Cam Skattebo 55%; Tyrone Tracy 44%

This game was crazy, and that may have played a little bit into Skattebo outplaying Tyrone Tracy, but I am not so sure. Technically, neither RB started the game or received the first carry (that was Devin Singletary), but both were involved in the first series. Ultimately, Skattebo saw quite a few more opportunities (14 opportunities for Skattebo, 10 for Tracy). Neither were spectacular, but this does feel like it’s moving toward a 50-50 share.

Generally, I think that this offense already has an alpha (Malik Nabers), and neither RB thrills me, but I am moving away from Tracy and toward Skattebo quite a bit. Cam is certainly worth keeping on your roster. If Skattebo is the preferred negative game script player, that’s who you want, because the Giants don’t look poised to win a ton of games.

Conclusion: Hold Skattebo and see if his playing time continues to trend upward, or if this falls into a 50-50 split. Tracy feels like old news.

San Francisco 49ers

Jake Tonges 79%; Luke Farrell 58%

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The 49ers used a committee to replace George Kittle. Jake Tonges played more, but Farrell scored the TD. This committee approach renders neither playing particularly interesting, especially with Mac Jones at QB. I’d look elsewhere, like Brenton Strange (bad statistical output, but on the field all the time).

Conclusion: Don’t roster Jake Tonges or Luke Farrell while George Kittle is hurt.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kaleb Johnson 3%; Kenneth Gainwell 42%; Jaylen Warren 58%

Kaleb Johnson has had a rough first few weeks in the NFL. He’s barely played on offense, but was made the team’s primary kickoff returner. However, on Sunday, he forgot the rules and allowed the Seahawks to get the easiest seven points ever.

Things are not going well for this kid. Could they? Probably! He has talent and had some impressive runs last year for Iowa. However, in a redraft league, I don’t have the patience to wait this out when he is buried this far down the depth chart and making costly mistakes. He’s clearly a long way from serious playing time, and the coaching staff hates him right now. I am not sure he even remains a kick returner. I’d find someone else closer to usable.

Conclusion: Drop Kaleb Johnson.

Cleveland Browns

Quinshon Judkins 27%

Judkins’ 20 snaps are nothing to write home about, but in those 20 snaps, he received 13 opportunities (10 carries and three targets). That 65% usage number is insane, and of course, unsustainable. But still, it’s very encouraging for a player in the middle of a very mediocre backfield.

Judkins looked like the only Browns RB with any juice. He had a 31-yard chunk play and ran for over six yards a carry. He wasn’t quite as effective in the passing game, but did mix in an 11-yard passing play. But most importantly, he played on the opening series and was the first back to receive a carry. Keep in mind, all of this action came just a few days after finally joining the team for practice. He missed all of camp and has limited exposure within the team facilities. Judkins looks like a player ready to take over this backfield.

Now, keep in mind, Judkins could receive discipline from the league at any time. Even though the legal charges were dropped, the league could still suspend him under the conduct policy. Until then, he looks like a solid option in a bad offense.

Conclusion: Judkins’ role should expand greatly with time. Looks like by far the best RB on the Browns

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