Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back, old friends and new acquaintances! I am back for yet another year where I look at playing time to find trends, help make start/sit decisions, pick waiver targets, and help you win your league.
I am currently emerging from my parenting hibernation period after my second child was born. The infant is sleep-trained, the toddler is potty-trained, and I am ready for football season!
Alright, enough about me – you don’t care – let’s talk about Week 1. Just a reminder, the Week 1 article tends to be MUCH longer than my typical output simply because there is so much to learn from our first glimpse of real football. Hope it helps, and I hope you enjoy it!
Baltimore Ravens
Isaiah Likely 66%; Mark Andrews 74%; Derrick Henry 46%; Justice Hill 54%
Isaiah Likely had a fantastic game, and the 12 targets are particularly notable, but he is still technically playing behind Mark Andrews. Andrews ran more routes and played more snaps, so I don’t think Likely has “passed” Andrews yet. Still, Likely is an exciting player, and there doesn’t appear to be much competition from the Ravens’ WRs. Yes, Zay Flowers is out there 89% of the time and demands a significant target share (10 targets in Week 1), but Rashod Bateman is also playing heavy snaps (84%), but he’s not doing anything other than getting in some good cardio. Likely is worth a waiver wire pick-up, but I would not blow the bank based on one big box score. Everything still suggests that he’s the third target on the team.
Derrick Henry was underwhelming in his first game as a Raven. He played fewer snaps than Justice Hill, in a game that was always competitive. His usage was somewhat lackluster too (13 carries and two targets), but he is the clear goal-line back on a very good offense. That has value.
This could also be game planning. The Chiefs’ best player on defense remains Chris Jones, so running Derrick Henry up the middle, directly at the Chiefs’ defensive star is suboptimal. Still, let’s not forget that Derrick Henry is 30 years old and has been taking a beating for years. There may be an element of workload management here too. In sum, I think Derrick Henry takes a slight hit in value after being out-snapped by Justice Hill in a competitive game against the defending champs.
Conclusion: Don’t break the bank chasing a sexy box score with Isaiah Likely.
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco 80%; Carson Steele 9%; Samaje Perine 15%
This playing time is great news for those of you who invested a high draft pick on Pacheco. His usage more or less mirrored his heavy playing time during the playoffs last season. Now, keep in mind that Perine was acquired late in the preseason, so his knowledge of the playbook may have been somewhat lacking, but Perine only took away two targets, and at least one of the plays looked like a designed play for Perine that Pacheco probably wouldn’t get anyway.
Carson Steele was the only other running back to receive a carry, and he only saw two for three yards. He was extremely inefficient with those carries, and the Chiefs ended up leaning even harder on Pacheco.
Pacheco’s role looks solidified. He might lose a bit more passing game playing time to Perine, but he probably will see two to three targets per game to go with his 15+ carries, especially if he continues to run a route 71% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks like he did in Week 1. All around, great news for Pacheco.
Conclusion: Pacheco remains a solid RB1.
Green Bay Packers
Tucker Kraft 94%; Luke Musgraves 25%
There was some hope that Luke Musgraves could take a step this year and become something akin to Sam Laporta, but the breakout may need to wait a year or so. It’s clear that the Packers do not trust Musgraves to block. Instead, that duty goes to Tucker Kraft. Moreover, Kraft might be the better receiver too. He had a pretty nice play to gain 29 yards, and Kraft ran WAY more routes than Musgraves (30 routes to Musgraves eight).
Conclusion: Musgraves can be dropped if you were holding onto him.
Cincinnati Bengals
Yikes, the rookie is not part of the Bengals’ game plan at the moment. He played the fewest number of snaps (four) of any active Bengals WR. Even Charlie Jones saw more snaps than Burton. And keep in mind, this was a game that Tee Higgins missed due to injury. At the moment, the rookie Burton was playing behind Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, Charlie Jones, and, of course, Ja’Marr Chase. He probably would have been a healthy scratch if Higgins played. Not great.
Conclusion: If you drafted Burton as a late-round flier, you can move on.
New York Giants
Devin Singletary 70%; Eric Gray 10%; Tyrone Tracy 21%
The Giants’ backfield is solidly in the hands of Devin Singletary, but the question is, do you care? Singletary ran the ball 10 times for only 37 yards and chipped in four catches (on five targets) for only 15 yards. His involvement looks nice, but the team around him looks awful, particularly at the quarterback position, where Daniel Jones has now thrown more TDs to the other team than he has to his own since signing his $160M extension. And, it took less than one week for Jones to start catching strays from Malik Nabers (who could have seen that coming?).
Singletary’s usage is annoying because you can’t drop him, but you also can’t start him. Maybe he’s the type of player you should drop just to make him someone else’s problem.
Conclusion: Devin Singletary has nice usage numbers but terrible efficiency on a bad offense.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane 52%; Raheem Mostert 44%; Jeff Wilson 15%
Both Achane and Mostert got nicked up in this game (they do that…). The primary backup for both was Jeff Wilson. It should be noted that Jaylen Wright was a healthy scratch because he doesn’t play special teams, and Jeff Wilson does. If either Achane or Mostert were to miss time, it would be Wright, not Wilson, who would be the primary replacement. Again, Wilson is a guy who gets occasional carries but offers versatility on special teams too.
Achane was extremely exciting, yet again, particularly in the passing game, where he saw seven targets (and caught all of them). Hopefully, the injury is no concern.
Conclusion: Pick up or hold onto Jaylen Wright because he would replace either Mostert or Achane, both of whom seem to get injured a lot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne 70%; Tank Bigsby 32%
It was very surprising to see that Etienne and Bigsby both received exactly 12 carries. It’s also a little scary to see Bigsby being so efficient compared to Etienne on the same number of carries (73 yards rushing for Bigsby to only 44 for Etienne). Still, the playing time and the passing game numbers show that this is still very much Travis Etienne’s backfield. First, Etienne scored the touchdown on a goal-line carry. Second, Etienne played more than double the number of snaps. And third, Etienne ran 17 routes compared to four for Bigsby.
It’s possible that Bigsby sees a bit more playing time in view of a more efficient outing, but the peripheral numbers suggest that Bigsby is still a small role player who just had a hot hand.
Conclusion: don’t panic about Etienne.
Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman 73%; Mack Hollins 58%; Khalil Shakir 53%
Despite being listed low on the depth chart, it was Keon Coleman who led all receivers in snaps and routes run among Bills wide receivers. Indeed, the only pass catcher on the field more than Coleman was Dalton Kincaid. Coleman was pretty effective too. He led the team in targets (five) and receiving yards (51). Shakir and Hollins converted the touchdowns, so Coleman’s fantasy output was disappointing, but these numbers are very encouraging after some pretty bad vibes about Coleman coming out of camp.
One other note: James Cook got workhorse usage. He saw 19 of 24 running back carries and was the clear leader in running back routes run. Touchdowns continue to elude him, however, because Josh Allen tends to monopolize the rushing touchdowns scored. Still, his high usage has been very consistent ever since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Buffalo.
Conclusion: Keon Coleman looks like the best wide receiver option in Buffalo.
Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. 90%
Marvin Harrison’s debut was very disappointing from a production standpoint, but he is still the clear WR1. He ran the most routes and was on the field the most of any non-OL/QB. He should be fine. The Bills may have schemed the defense to take him away.
Conclusion: No reason to panic about Marvin Harrison Jr. despite his disappointing fantasy output.
Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard 61%; Tyjae Spears 45%
Rumors during the offseason suggested this backfield would be a 50-50 split, but Week 1 played out more like a conventional “lead back/third down back” workload split. Tony Pollard had a pretty clear snap count advantage, but an even bigger rushing workload advantage (16 carries for Pollard to four for Spears). Spears did run more routes, but more notably, he played almost every third down. Pollard gets a small bump up in rankings, and Spears is borderline droppable if these roles stay static.
Conclusion: Pollard should be started – he had a really good day against a good Bears defense. However, his ceiling will be low if he never plays on third down.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott 51%; Rico Dowdle 44%
The Cowboys split the backfield workload evenly, with a slight advantage to Zeke in snaps and carries. The problem is that neither running back looks very good. This might just be a “Cowboys thing.” Tony Pollard looked pretty strong on a new team, but the Cowboys running game still looked stagnant and weak. Zeke saved his day with a touchdown, getting the team’s only goal-line carry. So that gives him a boost over Dowdle, for now.
Even if you combined all the Dallas running backs into a single entity, the stats would be 18 carries for 66 yards, three catches (on three targets) for 15 yards, and one rushing touchdown. That’s a decent day, but it doesn’t come remotely close to what Saquon Barkley did for Philly by himself. The point is, this is a team-level problem, meaning neither Cowboys RB is exciting.
I would be nervous to start any Cowboys running back until the entire team shows more commitment to the ground game. Right now, it looks like last year’s issues weren’t Tony Pollard’s fault.
Conclusion: Avoid starting Cowboys running backs, if you can. The volume and efficiency are not there, meaning you need a touchdown to salvage the day.
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams 91%; Blake Corum 0%
This one is baffling. Not only did Blake Corum not receive a carry, he didn’t even play a single offensive snap. His role was limited to kickoff returns – all of which went for touchbacks. Kyren dominated the backfield, which is great to see if you drafted Kyren Williams. But the craziest part of the day is that Ronnie Rivers was the one who spelled Kyren, not Corum.
Clearly Corum wasn’t hurt, or else he wouldn’t have been out there for kickoff returns. It seems like he’s just not part of the game plan, and he might not be moving forward either. Based on this game alone (which is probably jumping the gun, but we have nothing else to go off of), Corum appears to be a pure backup to Williams, playable only if Williams gets hurt.
Kyren looks like the clear lead dog here – the guy we thought he would be before the Rams drafted Corum in the third round. That’s great…except the Rams’ offensive line has been decimated. The Rams played without their starting LT and RT last night, and their very good LG, Steve Avila, got hurt too (as well as Joe Notebloom, who started for suspended Alaric Jackson). Jackson can return in Week 3, and starting RT Rob Havenstein might be healthy enough to go next week, so that would improve Kyren’s efficiency outlook. The health of the OL was a major reason for Williams only getting 50 yards on the ground on 18 carries, but the Lions also have an excellent run defense, so that also played a part.
The Rams made a conscious choice to mitigate the OL problems with a quick passing game. McVay knew the OL was a problem, and that Aidan Hutchinson was eating the third string LT alive, so he just drew up short pass after short pass from Stafford to Cooper Kupp. A healthier offensive line probably gives more opportunities to Kyren.
Conclusion: Kyren Williams looks like a top-five RB week-to-week with a somewhat healthier offensive line because Blake Corum appears to be completely uninvolved in the offense.
Los Angeles Chargers
J.K. Dobbins 58%; Gus Edwards 42%
The Chargers worked in Dobbins slowly, but it became clear very quickly that he was the better running back. Gus Edwards started and was the first running back to see the field, but Dobbins came in on the next drive, and the running backs traded drives.
Dobbins’ stat line looks spectacular (10 for 135 and a touchdown), but his numbers are somewhat inflated by a 61-yard run and a 46-yard run. His other eight carries were less spectacular. But still, he broke those big plays, while Gus Edwards plodded 11 times for a mere 26 yards.
As the game went on, Harbaugh began to trust Dobbins more, and after the game, he even gave “his” game ball to Dobbins. This tells me Dobbins will get even more trust and workload, especially as his health continues to improve.
Conclusion: Gus Edwards should be nowhere near your starting lineup; J.K. Dobbins is probably a top-24 RB next week.