Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Carolina Panthers
Jalen Coker 87%; Adam Thielen 85%; David Moore 58%; Xavier Legette 42%
Jalen Coker had a big day receiving (4 catches, 110 yards, 1 touchdown). The peripheral numbers look great, as he was on the field a lot and produced. Coker was a name that circled the fantasy socials a few weeks ago and was a big dynasty pickup, so this playing time and performance didn’t come out of nowhere. Moreover, this was his first game playing in about a month after an injury.
However, take this performance with a grain of salt because 88 of his 110 yards came on one play, which looked a bit like a busted coverage to me.
WELCOME BACK JALEN COKER
— NFL NEWS (@fantasynflnews.bsky.social) 2024-12-15T19:27:33.040Z
It should be noted that Xavier Legette injured his groin in this game and played limited snaps. Yet, Coker did a lot of his damage before Legette was injured in the second half. In fact, three of his six targets occurred on Carolina’s first drive, when all active WRs were healthy. Watching the game, it looked like Coker was a top receiver with Thielen. I don’t think Coker’s involvement was purely a result of the Legette injury.
As I said above, the team likes Coker, and it appears he is playing above David Moore now that he’s healthy (and maybe even playing ahead of Legette). Plus, he has an even clearer path now with Legette potentially limited. The Panthers have been playing better football since Bryce Young returned from his timeout, so Coker may be a viable add for a desperate team in the fantasy semis.
Conclusion: Jalen Coker is someone worth adding.
Buffalo Bills
Ty Johnson 30%; James Cook 41%
Ty Johnson‘s snaps were very meaningful. He caught five passes for 114 yards and added a few yards on the ground too. James Cook was still able to have a great fantasy day thanks to an offensive explosion in Detroit, but his limited snaps should not concern you.
The Bills clearly tried to exploit Detroit’s tendency to play a lot of man-to-man defense with three practice squad linebackers (Kwon Alexander, Zeke Turner, David Long). Without Alex Anzalone healthy, Detroit had been getting by, but Buffalo used Ty Johnson as a receiver out of the backfield to great success whenever he was matched up man-to-man with a linebacker. This was gameplan specific because very few teams, if any, play as much man-to-man as Detroit, and no team is as beat up on defense as the Lions.
Tip of the cap to Joe Brady, but this is not actionable moving forward.
Conclusion: Ty Johnson is not someone you should pick up because this statistical output was a specific gameplan to exploit Detroit’s weakness at the linebacker level due to defensive tendencies and injuries.
Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle 38%; Malik Washington 59%
Jaylen Waddle injured his knee in the game against Houston this week, and it was Malik Washington who stepped into the starting lineup for him. The normal passing distribution to Waddle appears to be split between Washington and Tua’s new favorite target: Jonnu Smith. Still, Washington did okay—he ended up leading the team in receiving yards despite seeing only six targets and playing just a little over half the snaps.
Still, Miami’s offense looked rough against the Texans, and managed only 12 points and one touchdown (there was a missed extra point). This was a surprising dud from this offense, which had been trending up ever since Tua returned from the concussion.
Miami plays a must-win game against San Francisco next week, and the news surrounding Waddle does not sound good for the rest of the season, so Washington is a viable pickup, but the offensive downgrade cannot be ignored.
Conclusion: Malik Washington might be at the top of some waive wire lists, but I’d be loathe to trust him in a fantasy semi-final matchup.
Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry 46%; Rasheen Ali 17%
If you only looked at the box score, you’d probably be surprised to see Rasheen Ali get eight carries, while Derrick Henry only saw 14. Well, worry not, brave fantasy player because Ali’s involvement was strictly game script related. The Ravens curb-stomped the hapless Giants, and they were ahead 35-7 with 10 minutes left in the game. Every single one of Rasheen Ali‘s carries occurred in Baltimore’s final two drives while comfortably ahead by 28 points in the final quarter. This was clearly a “rest your veteran starters” situation, and Henry should be fine moving forward. It’s a shame Henry couldn’t get in on the scoring fun, but all five Ravens touchdowns occurred via passing touchdowns. Hopefully, you survived and advanced in your playoff matchup, despite Henry’s lackluster stat line.
Conclusion: Nothing to worry about with Derrick Henry. Hope you advanced (or had a bye)!