Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back for another week of analyzing playing time! There isn’t a ton of change in the league, and we are missing six teams, but we will glean what we can, and hopefully find some interesting nuggets for you.
Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco Spreads the Love
Cedric Tillman 93%; Elijah Moore 73%
Joe Flacco threw a lot in this game, and he was chucking the ball deep a lot. Flacco threw the ball 44 times, and led the league in air yards, by a lot.
You may think that the passing volume was a product of gamescript, but you would be wrong. Cleveland lost the game 36-19, but the game was actually much closer than that. Midway through the fourth quarter, the game was 20-19, and only four more Flacco pass attempts (on six dropbacks, two of which were sacks) occurred after the point when the game was 20-19. That means Flacco threw the ball 40 times in a tight game. The Browns were unusually pass-heavy in this game, but perhaps that’s a good sign for the Browns’ pass catchers.
The biggest beneficiary of the pass-heavy approach was Elijah Moore (12/4/83). Moore was Flacco’s favorite target, by a large margin. Amari Cooper was out there but only saw five targets. However, Moore didn’t have a huge fantasy day, but that’s mostly because Joe Flacco only completed 23 of his 44 attempts.
Cedric Tillman is another notable player because he ran so many routes. He seems to have fully assumed the Donovan Peoples-Jones role, which was never particularly good for fantasy purposes but might be now if Flacco continues to whip the ball around 44 times. Tillman is a name you might want to keep on your radar, but not on your roster yet.
Conclusion: The Browns’ passing attack might be interesting if they continue to be pass-heavy with Joe Flacco. I need more data to prove the hypothesis, however.
Green Bay Packers
Tucker Kraft Replacing Luke Musgrave
Kraft 95%
Perhaps the headline is misleading, now that I think about it. Kraft is actually playing more than Musgrave ever did. Kraft is clearly not the talent that Musgrave is, but he’s played over 95% of the snaps each of the last two weeks since Musgrave went on IR. Musgrave will miss at least two more weeks, so that makes Kraft somewhat interesting. He saw six targets in the game, which is pretty good for a tight end. Six targets is a pretty big increase from two the week prior, in his first real “start.”
I know he’s probably not a league winner, but in a deep league, he might be someone who you could start in a pinch. The Packers’ offense looks better these days, and he’s basically the only tight end playing for the Packers.
Conclusion: If you are tight end needy, Kraft could fill a role for another couple of weeks.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane Out Snaps Mostert
Achane 61%; Raheem Mostert 38%
Here we go again.
Achane is back and fully healthy. He played the most of any running back, which took some carries away from Mostert (only 11 carries for 43 yards, but did score a touchdown). Still, this game was never close. Miami was ahead 17-0 by the end of the first half. Achane scored both of his touchdowns in the second half when Miami was ahead 31-7, and 11 of his 21 opportunities occurred in the fourth quarter. Mostert still saw the first three carries of the game, on two separate series, so it’s safe to assume he’s still the “starter.”
But we’ve seen this before. In Week 4, Achane had 60% of snaps and Mostert had 40%. That was the game where Miami got blown out in Buffalo. I suppose you could argue that in games that are out of hand, Achane sees the most snaps, but the counterpoint is that Achane has dominated snaps in two games with very different gamescripts. The more compelling argument is that Week 4 and Week 13 were the two weeks when Achane was healthiest.
There is almost no world where you are sitting Mostert. Not in this offense. He will always have a role while healthy. But Achane looks like he could win you a championship. I think Achane will score more fantasy points than Mostert for the rest of the season, even if he plays less.
Conclusion: Keep them both in your lineups.