Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
Just two more weeks in the fantasy regular season. It’s do-or-die for a lot of fantasy teams scrapping to get into the playoffs. I hope this article will help you play the waiver wire to set your lineups and make it in!
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Active But Unproductive
If you happened to get away from family to hit your timeline on Thanksgiving, you might have seen JSN’s special catch show up as a highlight. It was an unbelievable catch.
JSN WHAT A CATCH pic.twitter.com/vYzk81B7uS
— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) November 24, 2023
If you’ve followed JSN’s college career, this catch is probably lower on his list of “most amazing catches.” Some of his catches in that Rose Bowl game and his unreal catch at the end of the 2021 Michigan game come to mind. The point is, this guy is a walking highlight reel. The problem is, he plays for the wrong team.
We had lots of excuses lined up for Jaxon all season. “The wrist injury held him back,” “he needs time to gel with Geno,” blah blah blah. The problem is, he just doesn’t see enough volume to consistently stay in your lineup. Tyler Lockett has not been a guy who has held JSN down, but he still is ahead of JSN on the pecking order. JSN is a third option on a team that throws the ball 27 times per game with a quarterback who has a banged-up elbow. I am just not sure that he will be a fantasy hero in 2023, absent some injury to DK Metcalf (or Lockett). At least in that situation, the “vacated targets” argument might have some validity because JSN is actually good enough to earn the targets Metcalf isn’t receiving.
JSN could be an alpha if the Seahawks let him, but I don’t think they will. It probably has something to do with blocking or playbook knowledge or a “you gotta earn it rook” mentality. You can’t drop him because that reality exists, but he’s just impossible to start outside of a perfect matchup.
The Seahawks, as a team, have started to play worse. Also, they lack Kenneth Walker, so perhaps they will eventually throw more, but if the Seahawks don’t throw more than 27 times against San Fran in a game that they were never really in, then JSN SZN isn’t 2023.
Conclusion: JSN needs an injury to Metcalf to become something special in 2023.
Jeff Wilson Reemerges
The Dolphins’ backfield was still dominated by Raheem Mostert, who took 20 carries and 60% of the snaps, but Wilson was involved. He got 11 carries in his 23 snaps and saw three targets, all of which were caught. Of course, all this happened without De’von Achane on the field, but still, this is notable. Wilson was the clear backup to Mostert for the first time this season.
Wilson was probably someone who you considered picking up in Week 5 after he returned from his injury. Perhaps Wilson was never 100% until more recently, but Wilson has officially moved ahead of Salvon Ahmed and is playing meaningful snaps for a high-powered offense.
Mostert has a history of injuries, even though he has avoided any landmines over the last few seasons. Wilson is worth a pick-up if you roster Mostert. We don’t know what Wilson’s involvement will be once Achane returns from his injury, which is apparently “day-to-day,” but Wilson would be the clear Mostert replacement, who never went away while Achane was blowing up. I have never been an “insurance” guy, but as we approach the fantasy playoffs, it becomes a far more viable strategy.
Conclusion: Jeff Wilson is worth a pick-up, especially for a Mostert manager with eyes on the playoffs.
The Muth Is Luth (and Free of Matt Canada)
Pat Freiermuth 59%
I am sure you’ve heard this stat already, but in Matt Canada’s 44 games as an offensive coordinator, the Steelers never once gained more than 400 yards, and they gained more than 400 yards in the first game without him. That’s very exciting for all of your Steelers options, but particularly Pat Freiermuth who got “Luth” to the tune of a career-high nine receptions for 120 yards. He was a focal point of the offense, including leading the team in targets despite only running 62% of the routes. We have a talented TE without the stink of Matt Canada serving as the focal point of an offense. Yes please.
His involvement may have been bolstered by Diontae Johnson basically checking out of the game at one point.
what is dionte johnson doing bruh pic.twitter.com/CTqoDxKmDV
— 🃏 (@bhxvan) November 26, 2023
The Muth was limited in his return from injury but still flashed. I’d expect him to do even better things. He would be my priority add across all positions.
Conclusion: Blow your FAAB on Freiermuth, if available.
Singletary Remains Strong Lead Back
Last week, I guessed that the Texans would keep rolling with Devin Singletary even if Dameon Pierce returned from injury. That turned out to be true, as Singletary was the clear lead back again. Pierce merely played 18% of snaps and only saw five carries, compared to Singletary’s six carries and seven targets. Singletary fits better with this unleashed version of CJ Stroud. It’s possible that Pierce gets a bit more involved as he gets healthier, but I don’t expect the playing time to change much. Instead, Singletary will be the only back you want to start from Houston.
Conclusion: Keep starting Singletary.