Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Chicago Bears
D’Andre Swift – 57%; Roschon Johnson – 42%
I know 57% snaps isn’t a huge difference over his season-long average of 64% snaps, but D’Andre Swift saw a dip in usage in Thomas Brown’s first week as the offensive coordinator. Perhaps the more noticeable dip wasn’t in playing time, but in opportunities, as Swift had 15 to Roschon Johnson’s 11.
Swift still played pretty well. He had a 39-yard touchdown run and accumulated 84 total yards. The Bears’ offense certainly looked better than it had over the previous few weeks, so there is certainly an argument that rising water lifts all boats here. Still, Roschon Johnson was essentially a forgotten player over the last month of Shane Waldon’s tenure, and now he’s contributing significantly, so this rise in usage is notable, particularly in view of the coordinator change. Moreover, as the Bears’ new OC puts things on tape, the NFL may adjust and put the Bears’ offense back in its place.
Conclusion: D’Andre Swift took a hit in playing time and usage in the first week with a new coordinator, and I am somewhat concerned.
Kansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy – 58%; Justin Watson – 56%; DeAndre Hopkins – 47%; JuJu Smith-Schuster – 36%; Mecole Hardman – 24%
My goodness, what a mess. No Chiefs WR played more than 58% of the snaps in this game. The “big name” trade target, DeAndre Hopkins isn’t even playing 50% of the snaps and is being outsnapped by Justin Watson. Plus, this is his third game with the team, so “being new” isn’t really an excuse for this.
Worse yet, the Chiefs spread the ball around so much. Eleven players on the Chiefs received at least one target in a game where Patrick Mahomes only threw the ball 33 times. The target leader was Noah Gray (five), the Chiefs’ backup TE (who also scored two TDs for absolutely no one because of course he did).
The well-known, veteran WRs were atrocious. Hopkins was three for 29, and Smith-Schuster was one for eight. Y-U-C-K.
The Bills have a good team and a good defense, so perhaps you can write this game off. But, in general, the Chiefs haven’t been spectacular on offense. They do enough to get by and let their outstanding defense carry them. Outside of the RB1 (currently Kareem Hunt, maybe soon back to Pacheco) and Kelce (usually), I am not sure I am comfortable starting any Chief. Not even Mahomes is an auto-start these days.
Conclusion: The playing time for all Chiefs WRs is not sufficient to sustain a permanent place in your starting lineup.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams – 52%; Audric Estime – 23%
If you spent big FAAB on Estime, like me, then you are super frustrated, like me. Sean Payton pulled the rug out from under us. This was a complete role reversal over last week. Javonte Williams hit a lot of waiver wires, and this week he doubled Estime’s playing time and had five more opportunities than Estime. Thanks for the heads-up, Sean!
The playing time does look worse than the actual opportunities (nine carries and five targets for Williams; six carries and three targets for Estime). Also, the game was a blowout, but still, it should be noted that Williams received the first carry of the game and scored the only rushing touchdown. In fact, Estime only had one carry and one target in the entire first half. His next carry occurred when the game was 28-6 in the mid-third quarter, essentially when the game was over. Williams’ backfield lead might have been more lopsided if the game was closer. Estime never fumbled, and I didn’t see any terrible pass protection breakdowns from him.
I don’t know, man, this seems wrought with uncertainty. If Javonte hit your waivers, you should probably pick him up and see if this continues. I am not dropping Estime yet, but I am probably not starting either without more clarity. If you have to start someone, I’d lean toward Williams.
Conclusion: The Broncos’ backfield is a complete unknown at the moment.
San Francisco 49ers
Eric Saubert – 97%
George Kittle’s replacement is Eric Saubert, but we learned pretty quickly that there is no replacement for George Kittle. Despite playing just about every snap, Saubert managed only a single target which resulted in a mere seven-yard reception. Not exactly matching Kittle’s TE1 pace.
Instead, the offense in San Fran ran through CMC and Jauan Jennings. Jennings is the exciting player worth inserting into your fantasy lineup. Saubert is not. Kittle should return soon, but if he misses any more time, look elsewhere (like Jonnu Smith) for a TE fill-in.
Conclusion: Eric Saubert won’t replace Kittle’s fantasy production.