Snap Count Observations: Transactions to Make for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Buffalo Bills
Ray Davis 15%; Ty Johnson 30%; James Cook 55%
Ray Davis was a splashy pickup a few weeks ago, and he showed some burst. But apparently passing the eye test won’t get you on the field much in Buffalo. Instead, he was playing behind Ty Johnson in this game, and James Cook continued to dominate the running back workload (19 carries for Cook; just three for Davis). Davis is also not involved in the passing game at all, likely because he is not on the field much for passing downs. There are probably pass protection issues for the rookie, and the team doesn’t trust him in certain situations.
Conclusion: Ray Davis is nothing more than a high-value insurance policy right now.
Indianapolis Colts
Adonai Mitchell 94%
Adonai Mitchell led all Colts playmakers in snaps, which is certainly notable. He converted his 60 snaps into six targets, six catches, and 71 yards. Normally, that fantasy output would make him an interesting waiver wire pickup.
However, I am not sure that I care about this. First of all, it appears that Mitchell was filling in for Michael Pittman. Pittman has been gutting it out with his back injury all season, so he may continue to do that next week, especially after the coaching staff confirmed that IR was not a possibility for Pittman. So, there is a major risk that Mitchell’s role returns to ignorable as soon as next week.
Plus, Joe Flacco has not been the answer at QB for the Colts. Rumors are swirling that the team is likely to return to Anthony Richardson again next week, which is probably the correct decision but an entirely embarrassing one at the same time. Richardson has been unable to elevate any receiver to true fantasy relevance, let alone a rookie receiver who is only getting significant playing time due to the injuries of veterans.
Conclusion: I would pass on the opportunity to pick up Adonai Mitchell.
Dallas Cowboys
Trey Lance 25%
It has been more or less confirmed that Dak Prescott will miss the remainder of the season, and Cooper Rush looked rough in his first game filling in. Dallas’ season is essentially over, so it would not shock me if the Cowboys took an extended look at Trey Lance.
Lance has not been a good quarterback, but he does run. That makes him at least worth considering off the waiver wire in 2QB formats. They already gave him a shot in this game, albeit during a span of the game when the Eagles’ victory was already assured. Perhaps a starting shot is coming next.
Conclusion: If you are desperate for a QB in a 2QB format, Trey Lance is worth a very low-bid stash.
Denver Broncos
Audric Estime 45%; Javonte Williams 29%
At long last, the Broncos have given Audric Estime a chance to be the lead dog in the Broncos’ backfield. This is a very exciting changeover. Estime didn’t dominate snaps, but he did dominate workload (14 carries for Estime, three carries total to Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams). It is clear that this is Estime’s backfield moving forward.
Estime didn’t catch any passes and ran fewer routes than Javonte, but he did run some routes (eight), which is encouraging enough to not completely avoid him. I would expect that role to expand slightly, but Williams will continue to have a role in the passing game.
Estime wasn’t incredible in this game. He gained 53 yards, averaging 3.7 per carry. He also failed to register a target on his eight routes run. Still, this is probably good news. It’s important to remember that the Broncos played the Chiefs, who are a very good defense. His weak box score may actually keep his FAAB cost down this week, which is great news. I would still spend up because the opportunities to pick up a starting running back after Week 10 are few and far between. Spend up!
Conclusion: Spend up (maybe 40-50%) on Audric Estime.
San Francisco 49ers
CMC returned from injury, and it was business as usual. He dominated snaps and played as a true workhorse, which was exactly what you expected when you drafted him first overall. He was involved significantly in the pass game, yet again, catching six passes for 68 yards. Unfortunately, McCaffrey was inefficient in the pure run game (39 yards on 13 carries), but perhaps that was just shaking off the rust. You’d like to see more from him on the ground, but generally, the Bucs are a team you can beat through the air and now via the ground game so I am not concerned.
Conclusion: Just about everything looks positive for CMC.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ receiving group was decimated, and so the team turned to “Cardio King” MVS. He tied for the most snaps of any receiver and caught three passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns, including a 69-yard bomb.
Consider me skeptical that MVS can continue to be a fantasy-relevant receiver, even if he is the only show in town. His three targets are nothing to write home about. Plus, the Saints did the usual “play inspired because they fired the coach everybody hated” phenomenon that usually lasts only one week.
Players who rely on deep shots are super fluky. Plus, we’ve seen enough of MVS in his career to know that he isn’t anything special. Not even Patrick Mahomes could make him fantasy-relevant.
Conclusion: Let somebody else make the MVS mistake.
Los Angeles Chargers
Gus Edwards 25%
Gus didn’t play a ton in his first game back from injury, but he did run efficiently (55 yards on 10 carries). J.K. Dobbins looks like he hit a wall, and his body is failing him as the season tolls on. The Chargers even worked in Hassan Haskins for a goal line carry that was converted into a touchdown.
Generally, the Chargers’ backfield looks like a mess, but there is always the chance that the team finds something in somebody like Gus Edwards. The team is winning, and they love to run it (Herbert only threw the ball 18 times in this game—compared to 30 rushing attempts). I guess the point is that Edwards could be something, even if this offense isn’t super exciting. A low bid is worth it if you are RB-needy and have space.
Conclusion: Gus Edwards is worth a flier pickup.