Seven Stats & Expectation Trends for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
In this series, I walk through seven trends that I’m seeing evolve as the season progresses. All data, unless otherwise specified, comes from nflfastR. It’s semifinals time…one more week to the ‘ship!
Math Behind the Matchups (Passing)
We can break down passing yardage by distance: checkdown, short, mid, and deep passes based on air yardage. Here are the leaders over the last three weeks for pass-catchers:
From here, we can analyze which defenses perform best against these different types of passes. This performance is vs. expectation: that is, it accounts for the strength of the opposing offense. We don’t want to punish a defense that gives up a large amount of yardage to the Dallas Cowboys; we also don’t want to credit a defense that holds the New England Patriots to a low passing total.
Here are some of my takeaways:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have been incredibly stout against deep balls — but incredibly flimsy against all other types of passes. You might not think much of the fantasy options on the Pittsburgh Steelers (the Bengals’ Week 16 opponent), but Diontae Johnson has had a nice resurgence in recent weeks (WR24, WR16, and WR18 performances). Diontae has never been a deep threat and matches up well in this divisional showdown.
- The Minnesota Vikings’ defense has turned it on of late, putting up stout resistance against all types of passes. However, it’s not like you can sit many players of their Week 16 opponent, the Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and the two RBs have to be in your lineup. But as for Jared Goff? There might be better options this week in single-QB leagues.
- The Cleveland Browns have an interesting passing defense: they shut down middle-length and deep passes, but give up plenty of yardage to checkdowns and short passes. That’s not great news for Nico Collins, who usually puts up plenty of deep yardage but is hampered with a calf injury and facing the Browns in Week 16.
Math Behind the Matchups (Rushing)
We can break out yardage for rushers based on where the play took place:
And what defenses have allowed:
Amidst this trainwreck of a season, the New England Patriots have managed to be pretty stiff against the run: they’re great against left- and right-facing runs, and rank ninth against RBs according to our Stream Finder. Javonte Williams disappointed in Week 15 with three fantasy points, and Samaje Perine with 5.3, against a similarly tough Detroit Lions run defense (ranked sixth). I wouldn’t get my hopes up for the Broncos’ backs making a resurgence this week.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks have been gouged by left- and center-facing runs, exactly where the Tennessee Titans have found success. It wasn’t a pretty Week 15 for Derrick Henry, but he was averaging 20.7 PPG on just 49% of snaps across the three previous weeks (his snap rate actually went up to 54% in Week 15). Tyjae Spears is a very similar story, and both are solid plays headed into this week.
Big Play Mavens
Volume is an important aspect of fantasy: we generally want players who are seeing a lot of work vs. players who make a couple of big plays out of their few opportunities. Here are players ranked by how many points they’ve scored from their top 20% of rushing and receiving plays:
Chris Godwin demonstrated the potential of WRs at the bottom of this chart: 10 catches on 12 targets for 155 yards was enough for a WR6 finish in Week 16. Right above him is Tyler Lockett, the WR32 on the season, who was able to convert nine targets into just 3.6 points (and a WR73 finish). Lockett has only found the end zone four times this season despite averaging 7.3 targets per game, and the Tennessee Titans are weak against wideouts. These semifinals could be a nice flex opportunity for Lockett.
Also, my goodness James Cook! The Buffalo Bills’ running back had back-to-back RB2 performances, yet still has the lowest percentage of his points from big plays. That’s because he’s still only found the end zone six times on the season, despite racking up just over 1,400 yards from scrimmage. There’s a chance he’s the league-winner we’ve all been waiting for.
Over/Underachievers
In this section, I use a simple regression model that uses air yards, targets, and defensive ability to predict how many fantasy points a player should score, and compare that to how many they actually score. An overachieving player might be one who catches a few TDs on only a couple of targets; an underachieving one sees a lot of targets (against a bad defense) and doesn’t do much with them. Here are the standouts:
I want to highlight Jordan Addison here, who had a massive, WR1 week…on just six targets. His most recent six-target game was a 5.9-point outing against the Denver Broncos in Week 11; indeed, this was the first time he exceeded 10 fantasy points since Week 8. With Nick Mullens leading the Minnesota charge, it’s hard to view Addison as a trustworthy, go-to guy in your fantasy playoffs.
On the other hand, after 16.4 and 21.9 fantasy points in Weeks 13-14, DeAndre Hopkins put up just three points in Week 15…but on a whopping nine targets! You have to monitor Will Levis‘ situation, but DHop is a solid volume play if Banarama goes.
Hidden Statistics
One of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy football is that receivers don’t get credit for drawing defensive pass interference penalties. The ball still moves down the field, after all! Using a similar regression model to the ‘under/over’ achievers section, here’s how many ‘expected’ points were obscured by DPI calls:
Ah, the sad tale of Marvin Mims. Since 19.3 and 9.1 points in Weeks 2-3, Mims hasn’t breached the top 50 at the WR position. He’s seeing only a handful of targets per game, and he is in no way fantasy-relevant in Week 16. But I can certainly complain that he should have scored more if not for DPI!
The Correlation Game
Fantasy football is often about matchups. Maybe you’re projected to beat your opponent, but their most explosive player is Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps to try to ‘cap’ their roster’s potential, you opt for Rashee Rice in the flex instead of Jaylen Warren. After all, if Mahomes has a monster game, Rashee Rice could participate in the upside, and you could be able to ride the wave.
It’s pretty interesting to see how Stefon Diggs and James Cook are so negatively correlated; it seems like the Bills either establish the run (Cook had 28 carries in the rout of the Dallas Cowboys) or let Josh Allen loose (he threw the ball 51 times in the nail-biter against the Philadelphia Eagles). This could be a pretty useful hedge if you’re playing against a team that is favored!
Dominators
I enjoy looking at the share of offensive fantasy points that each player accounts for:
The 2.3 point performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wasn’t pretty, but Breece Hall is still one of just two non-QBs on this list. Any offense the New York Jets generate goes through him, and he was averaging 12.8 points between the Week 7 bye and the Week 15 debacle (with a low score of 7.5). Feel free to keep on riding the Breece Lightning, especially in a super-soft matchup against the Washington Commanders deliberately depleted defensive unit.
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