Seven Stats & Expectation Trends for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
In this series, I walk through seven trends that I’m seeing evolve as the season progresses. All data, unless otherwise specified, comes from nflfastR.
Math Behind the Matchups (Passing)
We can break down passing yardage by distance: checkdown, short, mid, and deep passes based on air yardage. Here are the leaders over the last three weeks for pass-catchers:
From here, we can analyze which defenses perform best against these different types of passes. This performance is vs. expectation: that is, it accounts for the strength of the opposing offense. We don’t want to punish a defense that gives up a large amount of yardage to the Dallas Cowboys; we also don’t want to credit a defense that holds the New England Patriots to a low passing total.
Here are my takeaways:
- Despite whatever is happening on the offensive side of the ball, the New England Patriots have been a stout defense of late, especially against short- and mid-distance passes. Our Stream Finder has the Pats as the 12th toughest opponent for wideouts, which doesn’t bode well for the Pittsburgh Steelers…playing on a short week…with back-up Mitch Trubisky. I’m staying away from Steelers’ wideouts Diontae Johnson and George Pickens if I can help it.
- On the other hand, the Philadelphia Eagles are near the most generous defenses for checkdown and short-distance passes, and aren’t exactly prolific against mid-distance either (Stream Finder has them 32nd overall). The Dallas Cowboys are on a ridiculous tear: CeeDee Lamb is averaging 24.5 PPG since the Week 7 bye and Dak Prescott 28.5 (with only one game outside of the QB3 in that span!). Obviously, both are in your lineup, but you can probably roll with Brandin Cooks (12.9 PPG since the bye) as well.
- The New Orleans Saints are very tough against checkdowns and short-distance passes and are sitting just one game out of the division lead despite a three-game losing streak. I would guess they have a strong game against the one-win Carolina Panthers, and I don’t feel confident about any of the Panthers’ receiving options. You can even sit Adam Thielen who, despite the red-hot start to the season, is averaging just 6.7 PPG since his Week 7 bye, and has only seen nine targets in his last two games combined (he averaged 9.8 targets per game in the first six weeks).
Math Behind the Matchups (Rushing)
We can break out yardage for rushers based on where the play took place:
And what defenses allowed:
The Los Angeles Chargers have been quite weak against left- and right-facing runs, and the Denver Broncos, their Week 14 opponent, excel at the latter. It hasn’t been the high-upside year we’ve hoped for from Javonte Williams, but he still has received 40 opportunities in the last two weeks and is an emergency RB2 (or solid flex option). I would stay away from Samaje Perine despite RB20 and RB16 finishes in Weeks 11-12; since his Week 9 bye, he’s seen just 29% of snaps and less than six opportunities per game.
On the other hand, the New England Patriots — once again — are pretty tough against the run. Just like I would prefer to avoid their pass-catchers, so it goes for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Both are OK flex options, but don’t expect upside from two players that basically divide the workload in half (Najee has seen 55% of snaps since their Week 6 bye, Jaylen 46%) against a tough defense (ranked sixth against RBs according to the Stream Finder).
Big Play Mavens
Volume is an important aspect of fantasy: we generally want players who are seeing a lot of work vs. players who make a couple of big plays out of their few opportunities. Here are players ranked by how many points they’ve scored from their top 20% of receiving and rushing plays:
I want to highlight Jaylen Waddle, who has seen eight targets in each of the last three weeks in an incredibly explosive Miami Dolphins offense…only to finish as the WR38, WR16, and WR39. Despite a very productive season — he’s on pace for 88 catches and 1,148 yards — Waddle has found the end zone just thrice, which accounts for his low position on this chart. It’s hard to tell if this low-scoring rate will change in the future…you still have Tyreek Hill ending drives with monster TDs at a moment’s notice (he’s scored 12 times on the season). And the Dolphins’ fantasy playoff schedule — New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens — is quite tough. But, while we might not expect top-end performances from Waddle, you can feel pretty confident of a decent output; he has only two games with less than 7.5 points this season.
On the other hand, it’s no surprise to see Gus Edwards high up on the running back chart. He’s found the end zone nine times in his last six games, despite averaging less than 12 carries per game. Is that sustainable? Maybe…but more importantly, the Gus Bus is susceptible to Gus Busts. We saw it in Week 12: just 4.2 fantasy points after an RB3 finish in Week 11. If your team is built for that — i.e., you’re getting steady production elsewhere — then it should be fine. But be wary!
Over/Underachievers
In this section, I use a simple regression model that uses air yards, targets, and defensive ability to predict how many fantasy points a player should score, and compare that to how many they actually score. An overachieving player might be one who catches a few TDs on only a couple of targets; an underachieving one sees a lot of targets (against a bad defense) and doesn’t do much with them. Here are the standouts:
It is no surprise to see DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, and Tyreek Hill leading this chart. This triumvirate finished as the WR1, WR2, and WR3 at the position despite seeing just eight, four, and seven targets, respectively. But this isn’t prescriptive going forward: we expect these players to overachieve. They’ve demonstrated that they are far above the NFL norm in terms of talent! Frankly, that goes for most of the players on here… I would highlight Evan Engram, who caught all nine of his targets for 82 yards and a score on Monday Night Football. That was good enough for the TE3 finish, his best this season by a long shot. Hard to project that going forward.
Here are the ‘underachievers’:
Keep an eye out for Elijah Moore, who saw a season-high 12 targets with Joe Flacco behind center. That turned into just four catches, although the 83 yards was also a season-high. If Amari Cooper can’t go, Moore would be a really interesting start against a weak Jacksonville Jaguars passing defense.
Hidden Statistics
One of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy football is that receivers don’t get credit for drawing defensive pass interference penalties. The ball still moves down the field, after all! Using a similar regression model to the ‘under/over’ achievers section, here’s how many ‘expected’ points were obscured by DPI calls:
It hasn’t been sunshine and roses for JSN, the highly anticipated rookie who is currently sitting as the WR51 on the season. But he did see 11 targets in the Thursday night shootout with the Cowboys, and would probably have added to his 9.7 fantasy total if not for a defensive pass interference call getting in his way. I don’t really think you can start JSN except as a flex option in deeper leagues…but he does have an OK floor (under 6.8 points since his Week 5 bye in just two of eight games). Maybe, more importantly, he’s a target in dynasty leagues.
The Correlation Game
Fantasy football is often about matchups. Maybe you’re projected to beat your opponent, but their most explosive player is Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps to try to ‘cap’ their roster’s potential, you opt for Rashee Rice in the flex instead of Jaylen Warren. After all, if Mahomes has a monster game, Rashee Rice could participate in the upside, and you could be able to ride the wave.
This all comes down to correlation: do players tend to score together, or when one scores a lot does the other tend to score a little? Here’s a guide of teams’ top scorers, excluding quarterbacks (since they are generally very positively correlated with pass-catchers!).
It’s certainly feasible to imagine a team that drafted both Mike Evans and Rachaad White. The good news (or bad, depending on how you look at it) is that these two are quite correlated…they tend to score together. So they are great starts if you need a boom/bust output!
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