Second Year WRs to Bet on in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

Every offseason, fantasy managers spend their summers looking to find the breakout candidate that is going to turn their 2024 rosters into championship winners! The best way to bolster a roster is to find a player who can take a big step forward and outperform the draft capital that’s needed to invest in them. We’re all tantalized by rookies when they enter the league, but being able to use rookie season stats to give us an idea of what’s still to come can be the key to finding those players who can leap into top 24 territory!

For the second season, I looked at rookie WR output to better identify which players are primed for a bigger year in 2024. To better identify which players are more likely to take a step forward in their sophomore season, I’ve compiled rookie WR stats since 2012 with certain benchmark numbers and then charted those players’ finishes in their second NFL season. The benchmark statistics are:

• 400+ Receiving Yards
• 4+ Receiving TDs
• 8+ Yards Per Target
• 50+ Receptions
• 7+ Fantasy Points Per Game

While these benchmark statistics at first glance may seem like meager standards, they do eliminate a large number of rookies very quickly. For instance, of the 600 rookie WRs in the NFL since 2012, just over 20% finish with at least 400 receiving yards. When you add another qualifying statistic on top of that like four or more receiving TDs, that drops to just over 13%.

Before getting to the WRs from the 2023 class, let’s define how we looked at the players over the last decade. For historical reference, I took the average of the top 24 and top 12 WRs over the last 10 seasons in both PPR and standard scoring. Since the line for these parameters shifts every season, it will help to weigh each season against the same standard. These parameters are as follows:

• Average Top 12 WR Standard Scoring: 161.7 (down from 162.1 in 2013-2022)
• Average Top 24 WR Standard Scoring: 132.9 (up from 131.9 in 2013-2022)
• Average Top 12 WR PPR Scoring: 247.8 (down from 248.7 in 2013-2022)
• Average Top 24 WR PPR Scoring: 205.2 (up from 203.3 in 2013-2022)

By combining the benchmark statistics we give ourselves a much better idea of which second-year WRs have the best chance of giving fantasy managers a top 24 season. From 2012-2022, there were only 22 rookie WRs who met all five criteria we’re looking for and 77% of those players finished inside the top 24 the next year, with 31% finishing in the top 12. If we look at just the last five seasons, 91% of players meeting all five criteria were at least top 24 WRs in their sophomore year.

Getting a rookie who can fit all five categories we’re looking for is tough. We’re talking about 4.5% of all rookie WRs since 2012. The elite of the elite as far as rookie usage goes.

Before we move forward to the 2023 class, let’s look at how this measuring stick performed with the 2022 class.

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Player	Team	Benchmarks Met	2023 Finish
Chris Olave	NO	5	WR19
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	4	WR32
George Pickens	PIT	4	WR26
Christian Watson	GB	4	WR65
Jahan Dotson	WASH	4	WR56
Drake London	ATL	3	WR39

The obvious win for this model is with Chris Olave who was the lone WR from the 2022 class to meet all five criteria and finished the season as the WR19! It’s tough to call it a huge win with Olave though since he was going as the WR12 and didn’t return on that for fantasy managers. It’s worth noting that George Pickens did surpass the average over the last 10 seasons for a top 24 WR but just missed out on hitting that mark in 2023. There is a case to be made for Garrett Wilson and Drake London with potential upgrades in QB play coming their direction this season to maybe bring more value for fantasy managers!

Now let’s get into the 2023 WR class and see which players hit the right benchmarks for fantasy managers to be betting on a step forward in 2024!

There were 37 rookie WRs that were looked at and there’s a huge number of players that met all five criteria – the most in the dataset that goes back to 2012! Here’s a look at any rookie WR that met at least two of the benchmarks:

A Good Bet – Four Criteria Met

Tank Dell (HOU)

ADP 5.05

The lone player in this draft class that met four criteria is Tank Dell. To be fair, Dell would have probably surpassed the 50+ reception mark had he not been injured, so we can maybe consider him as having one leg (no injury pun intended) into the next category. Dell was fantastic as a rookie, finishing behind only Puka Nacua in fantasy points per game in this class. There are fantasy managers who may have concerns about Dell’s role in the Houston offense with the addition of Stefon Diggs, but Dell feels like one of C.J. Stroud’s favorite targets and looks to be fully recovered from his broken leg. Dell will be one of my most rostered players when he’s on the board in the fifth round this season.

I’m All In – All Five Criteria Met

Puka Nacua (LAR)

ADP 2.03

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There’s not much more that can be said about what Puka Nacua did as a rookie for the Rams last season. Nacua set all kinds of rookie WR records and joined the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and Odell Beckham as the only rookies since 2012 to finish as a top 12 WR on the season. While Puka was a clear league winner last season for fantasy managers who picked him up off the waiver wire, the draft cost is much higher for him this season as the WR8 off the board. Puka will still be in one of the most trusted offenses in the league and should be viewed as a lock to be a top 15 WR on the year at his floor.

Zay Flowers (BAL)

ADP 5.04

Maybe one of the more surprising names on this list, Zay Flowers had a sneaky good end to his season to push him into all five categories, mainly thanks to scoring four TDs in his last five games played. Flowers had a typical rookie season, getting worked more into the Ravens’ offense after the midway point of the year. Where Flowers may be a concern for fantasy managers this season is his low average depth of target (8.4) which ranks 41st out of 54 rookies since 2019 with at least 50 targets. There’s also the concern that Flowers’ biggest weeks came without Mark Andrews on the field. With any hope, Flowers will get to see more downfield targets in his sophomore season after Baltimore didn’t add any other receiving options throughout the offseason.

Jayden Reed (GB)

ADP 6.11

For the second season in a row, a Packers rookie makes this list, but this time Jayden Reed is here for hitting all five criteria (Christian Watson cleared four of five in 2022). Reed practically forced his way onto the field for Green Bay by showing he could be used in a number of ways, even taking snaps as an inline TE and from the backfield for the Packers. After Week 10, Reed was a consistent fantasy producer, finishing as a top 24 WR in six of his last eight games. While the WR1 in Green Bay is still to be determined, getting a player with the upside of Reed who’s already finished the season inside the top 24 of WRs feels like great value as the WR34 off the board.

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Rashee Rice (KC)

ADP 8.01

My absolute favorite value in drafts right now is Rashee Rice. Of course, his off-the-field issues are concerning, but the concern that Rice is going to miss significant time – if any in 2024 – seems to be pressing his value down significantly in drafts and fantasy managers need to be pouncing on him. Rice saw six or more targets in his last six games in the fantasy season last year and finished as the WR16 or better in four of those games. During that stretch, Rice saw a 27% target share which outpaced Travis Kelce when he was heating up heading into the Chiefs Super Bowl run. Of all the WRs that hit all five benchmark criteria last season, Rice is the one I plan on having on the most rosters in 2024. 

Jordan Addison (MIN)

ADP 8.01

If Rice is the most likely player from this group to be on my roster, Jordan Addison would be the least likely I’d roster. A lot of things have changed for Addison’s situation since his fantastic WR21 finish as a rookie. The change at QB in Minnesota is enough to drive down even the likes of Justin Jefferson’s draft stock, and when you couple that with the concerning off-the-field issues that Addison has dealt with this summer, it should give pause to fantasy managers during draft season. Addison is still an extremely talented WR and was one of my favorites from this class during the draft process, but all of the uncertainty around him heading into the season makes him the least likely to return on the promise that he’s shown in his short career.