Ride or Die: The Fantasy Footballers Predictions for Week 5

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New name, same great segment. “Ride or Die” pits The Ballers against each other with three players to meet a certain number each week. Each Baller will pick the player to “Ride” or “Die” with the stat, similar to a “prop” bet.

Each week I will be here to recap where each of the Ballers took the wheel or gave a nice tuck and roll out of the vehicle for each one. Of course, I’ll weigh in as well and we’ll keep score throughout the season so you can see how smart I really am.

As always, let me know if you’re jumping in the passenger’s seat with me or think I’m driving the crazy train here or on Twitter: @KurtKnowsBest.

“Ride or Die” Scoreboard

We can’t jump into Week 5’s predictions without recapping where everyone finished last week and who’s leading so far this season.

Mike and Jason tied this week, getting two of three right. Andy got one right, but I had a week to forget putting up a big zero.

Week 4 Ride or Die Outcome
Player Prediction Andy Jason Mike Kurt
Kirk Cousins Top-12 QB Die Die Ride Ride
Jamaal Williams Top-15 RB (Without D’Andre Swift) Die Ride Ride Die
Rashod Bateman At least 10 fantasy points (Half PPR) Ride Ride Die Ride
2022 Overall 50% (6/12) 66% (8/12) 33% (4/12) 33% (4/12)

Week 5 “Ride or Die” Predictions

The latest installment of the “Ride or Die” segment can be heard on the October 5 episode: “Ride or Die + TNF Preview, Tom’s T-Shirt”.

Nick Chubb (CLE) vs LA Chargers: 100+ Rushing Yards

Chubb has been a dominant force for fantasy managers through the first four weeks and has not finished below RB14 so far this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense is giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing fantasy RBs each week.

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Jason believes Chubb hits the 100-yard mark as the main cog in the machine for Cleveland. Mike took the “Ride” as well, making a point to bring up Chubb as an elite option among fantasy RBs. I’ll hop in as a backseat driver on this one, not willing to bet against Chubb continuing his work on the ground for fantasy managers.

Andy is the lone “Die” this week, arguing that the Chargers offense could take Chubb out of the game script. The Browns have given up at least 23 points in three of their first four games so far this season.

Tyler Lockett (SEA) at New Orleans: 6+ Receptions

All of the Ballers are holding hands on this one with a triple “Ride.” Jason expects the Saints defensive focus to be on DK Metcalf, allowing Lockett to continue to function. Andy points out that Lockett was an obvious draft season gem that was overlooked because of the QB situation. The Fantasy Hitman does make a point that the ball could eventually drop on the Geno Smith fantasy experience. Until then though, Lockett’s fantasy production should be a good bet every week.

Lockett has been extremely productive through the first four weeks, but his snap percentage has decreased over the last few, seeing just 79% of snaps in Week 4. Even so, Lockett is eating up the targets from Geno Smith with more than enough to go around since the Seahawks are throwing the ball over 30 times a game.

I’ll make it a “Ride” quartet with the Ballers on this one.

Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs Tennessee: Top-24 Fantasy WR

McLaurin’s fantasy value has been up in the air through the first month of the season, only finishing in the top-25 WRs twice. His fantasy value has clearly been stifled by the emergence of Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson as the favorite targets for Carson Wentz.

Jason is a “Ride” this week mainly because Jahan Dotson won’t be available to take targets away from him this week. I’m rolling with McLaurin this week as well, mainly due to Tennessee’s ability to give up gigantic weeks to players like Mack Hollins in recent weeks.

Mike and Andy are both out on this prediction. Andy originally was backing McLaurin, but once they fleshed out the argument he flipped from his initial decision. As much as it hurts Mike’s heart, he has finally sold most of his McLaurin stock and needed to “Die” on this one.

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Week 5 Ride or Die 
Player Prediction Andy Jason Mike Kurt
Nick Chubb 100+ Rushing Yards Die Ride Ride Ride
Tyler Lockett 6+ Receptions Ride Ride Ride Ride
Terry McLaurin Top-24 Fantasy WR (Half PPR) Die Ride Die Ride

Kurt’s Week 5 Bonus Picks

Kurt’s Bonus Picks Week 5
Player Prediction Kurt
Tony Pollard More Fantasy Points than Ezekiel Elliott (half PPR) Die
Diontae Johnson 75+ Receiving Yards Ride
Josh Jacobs Top-20 RB Ride
2022 Overall 66% (8/12)

Michael Pittman (IND) at Denver: Top-15 WR

Pittman was the darling of the draft season for many fantasy managers – this one included – so his slow start through four weeks has to have killed some fantasy teams. What has to be concerning about Pittman for fantasy managers is that his target share has decreased each week after he opened as the WR5 in Week 1.

The Broncos are giving up the fewest points to fantasy WRs through the first four weeks, though they did give up a WR13 fantasy finish last week to Devante Adams. Pittman will have his work cut out for him to reach the alpha WR status the fantasy community wants to assign to him with Broncos cornerback, Patrick Surtain, making his case to be the best at the position in the league.

I’ll have to “Die” on this prediction.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs Houston: 2+ Passing TDs

Fantasy managers who had faith in Lawrence after back-to-back top-12 finishes were let down last week. Lawrence was able to try and salvage his fantasy week with a late TD, but his five total turnovers (one INT & four fumbles) ruined anything positive he could muster.

All that said, the weather definitely played a huge role in Lawrence’s fantasy output, and through four weeks the 2021 top NFL Draft pick is averaging two passing TDs per week. Houston’s defense gave up their 2nd and 3rd passing TDs on the season just last week, so they should be a good test as to whether fantasy managers can count on Lawrence going forward.

I’ll “Ride” with the hair on this one.

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Damien Harris & Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs Detroit: Each with 75+ Rushing Yards

It could be a perfect storm for the Patriots backfield in Week 5 with a ROUGH Lions run defense coming to town. Mac Jones could miss his second straight game with an ankle injury and last week both Harris and Stevenson finished as top-24 RBs (RB14 & RB23 respectively). There hasn’t been a single week in 2022 where both players have finished with 75 rushing yards in the same game.

The bar may be set a bit high here, but we are talking about a super juicy matchup with a Detroit team that has already given up over 200 rushing yards in a game twice this season and nearly gave up 100 yards to two players in a single game in Week 1 vs Philadelphia.

I’ll “Ride” with this duo to continue the rushing trend this week.

Kurt’s Bonus Picks Week 5
Player Prediction Kurt
Michael Pittman Top-15 WR Die
Trevor Lawrence 2+ Passing TDs Ride
Damien Harris & Rhamondre Stevenson Each with 75+ Rushing Yards Ride

Comments

Ray says:

I traded away Breece& Aiwuk for Connor&Muth. I have depth at RB and had Pitts killing me each week. I win this?

Julie says:

Would you start Chris Olave over Pittman this week

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