Ride or Die: The Fantasy Footballers Predictions for Week 1
New name, same great segment. “Ride or Die” pits the Ballers against each other with three players to meet a certain number each week. Each Baller will pick the player to “Ride” or “Die” with the stat, similar to a “prop” bet.
Each week I will be here to recap whether each of the Ballers took the wheel or gave a nice “tuck-and-roll” out of the vehicle for each one. Of course, I’ll weigh in as well and we’ll keep score throughout the season so you can see how smart I really am.
Of course, I need to know if you’re jumping in the passenger’s seat or think I’m driving the crazy train in the comments section or on Twitter: @KurtKnowsBest.
Week 1 Podcast Ride or Die Predictions
The premiere of the “Ride or Die” segment for 2022 can be heard on the September 7th episode: “Ride or Die + Super Bowl Picks, TNF Preview”.
DK Metcalf (SEA) vs Denver: +55 receiving yards
Jason is riding with this one based on the necessity that Metcalf presents to a fairly unknown offense in Seattle. Mike agreed that Metcalf would exceed the line of 55-yards, but notes that it’s a tough line to drive. Andy made it 3-for-3 with the Ballers, noting that the betting line for the game is much tighter than you’d expect based on the narratives surrounding each team from the off-season.
Personally, I think Metcalf can be a strong WR2 on your team even without Russell Wilson. In 3-games with Geno Smith from 2021, Metcalf averaged 6 targets for 4 receptions and 65 yards. An upgraded Broncos defensive front could give the Seahawks trouble, and it may increase Metcalf’s necessity to get the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and make plays.
Baker Mayfield (CAR) vs Cleveland: 2+ Passing TDs
Andy is taking the Baker ride with this line, citing his disbelief that the Browns defense will travel well. Mike agreed, running with the revenge narrative for Baker to get back at his old team. Jason is a “Die” on Baker this week though, expecting Christian McCaffrey to be the beneficiary of getting to the end-zone on the ground.
I’ll ride with Baker here. Mayfield ended the 2021 season on 3-straight games of two passing TDs. While Jason is worried CMC will see the end-zone and not Baker, I’ll expect Baker to want to show out against Cleveland and reward the Panthers’ faith in to start 2022.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) at Arizona: At least 17 opportunities
For clarity here, Judge Giamatti is defining opportunities as rushing carries or targets in the passing game.
Andy quickly jumped out of the wagon on this one noting that CEH only hit this mark 4/10 weeks he played in 2021. Jason followed Andy, but did mention the vacated targets in Kansas City from last season could make their way to CEH. Mike believes the Chiefs win this game and will have to use the running game and CEH to do it.
I’ll be dying with CEH on this one. Edwards-Helaire may be in line for the majority of the workload from the Chiefs backfield, but I’d expect Ronald Jones and Jerrick McKinnon to cut into the touches from the kick for CEH.
Here’s a recap of where everyone is for Week 1:
Kurt’s Bonus Ride or Dies
These lines will be taken every week from DK Sportsbook.
Trey Lance (SF) at Chicago: Over 252.50 Passing + Rushing Yards
All eyes have been on the San Francisco QB room all off-season and it only got more interesting in the last week when they restructured Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract to keep him (for now) in the Bay Area. Trey Lance only started 2 games in 2021 and posted 281 & 280 combined passing and rushing yards in each game.
This one is an easy ride for me.
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs NY Giants: Over 97.5 Rushing Yards
Believe it or not, King Henry is not the guy you want come Week 1 of the NFL season. Since he took over the lead role in 2018, Henry is averaging 71 rushing yards in the Titans’ season-opener, including a season-low 58-yard debut last year.
The Titans will have to prove to teams that their bet on Treylon Burks was the right gamble before defenses will stop stacking boxes to stop Henry.
I’ll die on this rushing total.
Dalton Schultz (DAL) vs Tampa Bay: Over 4.5 Receptions
The Cowboys’ offense has taken some hits heading into the regular season with injuries to the offensive line causing plenty of concern. Dallas’ passing options are limited to start the year, even CeeDee Lamb is now marked as questionable with a foot laceration for Sunday’s game.
Schultz averaged 4 receptions a game last season when Dallas had a full arsenal of established receiving options. I’d expect him to see more than that come Sunday night.
I’ll ride with the over here.