Red Zone Report: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome to the fourth Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. Ahead of a couple more primetime matchups tonight in Miami and Detroit, Week 4 has already brought with it a lot to reflect on.

Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.

As always, let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone across the league.

EPA per play in and out of red zone graph

Jayden Daniels and his Commanders are continuing to impress on the offensive side of the ball. The Raiders have joined the Browns at the top of red zone efficiency. After a dominant performance in primetime, the Ravens’ offense is finally showing out as we expected thanks to the massive offseason acquisition of Derrick Henry.

Rushers

This rusher efficiency graph below will use data from both in and out of the red zone due to a lack of sample size of red zone plays.

Rusher EPA vs success rate graph

Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara are consistently dominant in every stat you can find. In other news, some backups are finally rising to the top and surpassing first-stringers in running back efficiency. Let’s take a closer look at some of these young studs, and what to expect from them going forward.

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Chiefs Rushers

After an early fumble by Carson Steele, Andy Reid and the Chiefs seemingly gave up on the back in favor of the recently signed Kareem Hunt as well as Samaje Perine. Perine took in the Chiefs’ only rush inside the five-yard line for a touchdown. However, as a whole, it was the Kareem Hunt show; he carried the ball 17 times, taking care of RB duties all over the field. Next week, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible to return to the team from the PUP, and recent reports favor a return as soon as possible. There is no clear red zone back as of right now for the Chiefs, but Kareem Hunt seems to have the role for the time being. CEH is likely to be available everywhere and is a sneaky high-upside pickup at a low cost if you have an available slot.

Bengals Rushers

After patiently waiting as the understudy to Zack Moss all season, Chase Brown has finally emerged for the Cincinnati Bengals. Brown and Moss shared 30 rushes evenly, though Brown picked up an extra 29 yards with his opportunities. In the five-yard line, Chase Brown received two carries and brought them both in for scores. Zack Moss, on the other hand, lost a yard on his only attempt in close. Dominating in all parts of the field and converting on scoring chances, Chase Brown could soon turn into a top option not only in Cincinnati but also in the world of fantasy football.

Buccaneers Rushers

Oregon rookie, Bucky Irving, is emerging as a strong weapon in Tampa Bay. Very similarly to Chase Brown, Irving has earned more snaps (including valuable carries inside the five-yard line) after beginning as the second option on his team. While both Rachaad White and Irving split carries and total rushing yards equally this week (10 for 49 each), it was Irving who received all five of the red zone running back carries. Irving managed to take one of these in for a touchdown in a dominant offensive showcase against the Eagles. Now receiving a nearly 50% split of carries and becoming the favored option in the red zone, Bucky Irving is absolutely someone to be targeting in trades. If your league is a part of the 38% of Sleeper leagues where Irving is still a free agent, he is well worth a sizable FAAB bid.

Receivers

Same as the previous graph, this receiving efficiency graph is made up of all plays — not just those from the red zone.

Receiver EPA vs success rate graph

Nico Collins is further pushing the narrative that he is not human with another stellar performance. In great company with CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson, young studs Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Josh Downs are starting to carve up defenders, and carve out greater target shares going forward.

Packers Receivers

In a game in which they trailed the entire time, the Packers were left passing the ball early and often. Christian Watson left the game in the first half with an ankle injury, opening up an opportunity for other players to prove themselves. Dontayvion Wicks answered this call, commanding three red zone targets and hauling in two for touchdowns. Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft each brought in a red zone touchdown as well. If Watson misses significant time, all Packers receivers should feel a minor boost in opportunities. At 6’4″, Christian Watson’s absence will be felt especially in the red zone.

Conclusion

Bye weeks are unfortunately here, which makes digging deeper into benches and waiver wires essential to fantasy success. Finding unlikely players with red zone opportunities will become pivotal moving forward, and can be a key to success for winning important mid-season fantasy matchups! Thanks for reading and make sure to check back each week for the newest Red Zone Report!

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For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit

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