Red Zone Report: Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the 12th Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. Goal-to-go opportunities can make or break fantasy teams at this very crucial time in the fantasy football season. Let’s dive right into the data that can help you get ahead of your league mates.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
Let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.
The Commanders seem to be returning back down to earth in terms of offensive efficiency outside the red zone. Now with Mike Evans having returned, Tampa Bay’s offense is on the rise. Week 12 will be capped tonight by the Ravens, who appear to be the most well-rounded offense in terms of efficiency.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.
Yesterday’s game against the Giants was another successful outing in the red zone for Bucky Irving, who continues to lead all rushers in red zone efficiency. De’Von Achane, who was before overshadowed by Raheem Mostert in the red zone, is finally starting to get the opportunities he deserves. Let’s take a closer look at these rushers and more.
Nick Chubb
Since Nick Chubb’s Week 7 return from injury, no other Cleveland Browns running back has taken a red zone carry. This week, he carried the ball eight times from 20 yards and in, two of which resulted in touchdowns. While his efficiency numbers have expectedly taken a dip since his injury, the Browns still seem to fully trust him as their guy in goal-to-go situations, a very promising case for the managers who waited so patiently for his return after drafting him. While the Browns’ schedule for the remainder of the season isn’t incredibly favorable for running backs, Jameis Winston’s exciting quarterbacking ability may contribute to more scoring opportunities for Nick Chubb and other Cleveland weapons.
Jaylen Warren
On the visiting sideline from Thursday night’s gorgeous blizzard atmosphere were the Pittsburgh Steelers, who struggled quite a bit on both sides of the ball. One player who didn’t disappoint, however, was Jaylen Warren, who took in his only red zone carry for a touchdown. While Najee Harris has received the majority of these opportunities throughout the season, it seems as if he doesn’t have complete control over the role. I don’t expect this to become a trend; however, due to his relative inefficiency, Najee Harris managers cannot afford for a different back to be scoring short-yardage touchdowns.
Buccaneers Rushers
In a beatdown of Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants, the Buccaneers made sure to let all three of their talented running backs into the end zone on red zone carries. While this may be enjoyable to watch, it can spark uncertainty for fantasy managers. Despite yesterday’s happenings, I suspect that Bucky Irving will continue to dominate as the primary red zone back—he has been getting the most usage in this area of the field over the course of the season. With the recent return of Mike Evans, the offense as a whole should regain a good amount of the efficiency they maintained earlier this season. In a very favorable matchup against Carolina next weekend, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White fantasy managers should continue to be rewarded with high fantasy outputs.
De’Von Achane
Last year, Raheem Mostert led the league in rushing touchdowns. Now, however, he has seemingly disappeared due to a combination of factors like injury, age, and the red zone emergence of De’Von Achane. Raheem Mostert’s days of punching in red zone touchdowns are over. The Dolphins simply cannot keep De’Von Achane‘s skill set and athleticism off the field when they are near the end zone. This Sunday, he was targeted twice in the red zone, reeling in both for touchdown catches. Achane’s value should continue to skyrocket with his newly added red zone touchdown upside, while Mostert’s value has seemingly dropped for good.
Receivers
Similarly to the previous graph, this will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
CeeDee Lamb is beginning to struggle in the red zone without Dak Prescott—a reality his managers will have to deal with for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the Tucker Kraft red zone masterclass continued this week with another touchdown.
Courtland Sutton
Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos continue to keep rolling with a big inter-divisional win over the Raiders in Las Vegas. Courtland Sutton’s two red zone touchdowns played a major role in his team’s offensive success. Now, as the favorite target of one of the better up-and-coming quarterbacks in the NFL, Courtland Sutton is becoming a very reliable option in part due to his increased red zone potential.
Conclusion
Two regular season matchups remain in most fantasy leagues, meaning it is crunch time for many managers. Red zone trends and stories are still rapidly developing, which is why it is crucial to remain up-to-date on information. Make sure to check back next week for the important red zone stats that can help you win your league.
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit.