Red Zone Report: Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the first installment of my Red Zone Report series, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. The first week is likely the most important in terms of red zone touch distribution because it gives us insight into decisions that will likely be made over the course of the season.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
First off, let’s take a look at how offenses performed in the red zone compared to outside the twenty.
This graph shows the efficiency of offenses from different areas of the field. This week, it seems as if the Commanders, Browns, Texans, and Buccaneers had the highest levels of efficiency in the red zone, indicative of more expected touchdowns and better fantasy production.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between two different efficiency variables, both of which are great for examining running back production. It is important to note that this graph is made up of all plays (not just those from the red zone) due to the currently small sample size of red zone data.
As can be seen, rushers like Tank Bigsby and J.K. Dobbins were much more efficient than their respective counterparts, and these relationships will be incredibly important to monitor as we move further into the year.
Now, let’s take a closer look at some of this week’s more interesting takeaways.
Saquon Barkley
While some may have shied away from drafting Saquon Barkley due to his injury concerns, others may have been scared off due to Jalen Hurts stealing red zone touchdowns. Of the Eagles’ 12 red zone rushes, Barkley received eight and Hurts received four. Inside the five, Barkley got three rushes, taking one in for a touchdown. Hurts did get an infamous tush-push from the one but fumbled the snap due to a lack of a connection with new center Cam Jurgens.
Inside the 5, the Eagles ran the ball 4 times with 3 rushes going to Saquon and a fumbled tush push to Hurts
Could Saquon be immune to the play that hurt D’Andre Swift so many times last year? pic.twitter.com/tfj8Z60hU3
— Jack Reinhart 〽️ (@JackJReinhart) September 8, 2024
While the Eagles ran the tush push a few times throughout the game, I believe Saquon Barkley has shown throughout his career that giving him carries is a very viable (and potentially safer) way to convert on short gains. Additionally, he should easily take all running back rushes in the red zone.
De’Von Achane
In a much more “up for grabs” backfield than Philadelphia, 2023 rookie sensation De’Von Achane made a strong claim for taking the bulk of carries moving forward. Achane received 10 carries, a significant amount more than his teammates Raheem Mostert (six) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (five).
More importantly, Achane received the singular rush inside the five-yard line at the one, which he converted for a touchdown.
De’Von Achane received the Dolphins’ only carry inside the 5 yesterday
This could be a very dangerous situation for Raheem Mostert’s fantasy value, whose 2023 RB2 finish was largely based on his 18 rushing touchdowns pic.twitter.com/qK6dI3hPud
— Jack Reinhart 〽️ (@JackJReinhart) September 9, 2024
While it is still very early and this was only one play, taking a sizable bite into the goal line work for a top offense in the NFL could be monumental for De’Von Achane’s value. At the same time, this would be devastating for Raheem Mostert, whose 2023 RB2 finish was heavily inflated by his 18 touchdowns.
James Cook
I’ve got good news and I’ve got bad news. The good news is that it finally looks like James Cook is becoming the Bills’ primary red zone running back. After receiving three of five handoffs in the red zone, including a carry from inside the five, James Cook will most definitely find himself scoring more this season. The bad news, however, is that Josh Allen is still stealing valuable opportunities. Running the ball in the red zone three times, Allen himself put a sizable dent into Cook’s touchdown upside, as it likely will all season. Of these three runs for Allen, he took the closest into the end zone from the seven-yard line. To make matters worse, he had a second rushing touchdown that got taken off the board due to a penalty.
Without Leonard Fournette or Damien Harris in the backfield anymore, I am confident James Cook will have his time to shine in the future with more opportunities. Nevertheless, like death and taxes, Josh Allen-designed runs and scrambles are always guaranteed.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Another former victim of Damien Harris’ red zone touchdowns, Rhamondre Stevenson, found himself in a great spot on Sunday, receiving 25 of 32 carries split between himself and the newly acquired Antonio Gibson. Inside the 12-yard line, Rhamondre commanded all three carries, including a touchdown rush from the three.
After years of sharing the backfield with power backs who would take the carries in close, Rhamondre is finally free in the company of Antonio Gibson, to whom he profiles similarly. I expect the Patriots to use Stevenson as their goal-to-go back for the foreseeable future — a potentially major development for his upside and fantasy value.
Chargers Running Backs
There was a pretty even split in carries between the Chargers’ primary running backs, Gus Edwards (12) and J.K. Dobbins (10), however, the output from their opportunities was all but even. On his 12 carries, Edwards gained only 26 yards, while Dobbins ran for 135. Edwards was also the preferred option in the red zone, receiving four carries, including the closest run to the end zone from the two-yard line, which he failed to convert upon. Dobbins received only two rushes, but once again made the most of them by taking a carry from the 12 in for a touchdown.
Gus Edwards struggled heavily yesterday while J.K. Dobbins thrived
Could Dobbins become not only the primary back, but also the red zone back? pic.twitter.com/qD1yKH0wsA— Jack Reinhart 〽️ (@JackJReinhart) September 9, 2024
If Edwards’ rushing struggles continue in the future, the Chargers could make an adjustment in red zone carries that would be detrimental to his value.
Receivers
This graph uses the same variables and logic as the previous graph, but this time for pass-catchers.
While we see some familiar names in the top right corner of this graph, we also see some new ones in players Isaiah Likely and Brock Bowers.
Ravens Receivers
In a night of football that stunned Mark Andrews‘ managers, Isaiah Likely showed up as the most reliable receiving option for the Ravens. He converted 12 targets into nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. He also earned a team-high three targets in the red zone, one of which was a smaller shoe size away from becoming the buzzer-beating touchdown that would’ve sent the game to overtime.
1.) Isaiah Likely will continue to be a thing all year and he is an awesome talent. He should be rostered in ALL leagues. This might have been his best game of the season though. I will have plenty to say about him in my waiver wire article for Week 2.
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) September 6, 2024
While the next few weeks will give us a better picture of what is in store for the Ravens’ tight end room, there is no denying that Isaiah Likely will have a solid role going forward. Even with Mark Andrews on the field more in future games, Isaiah Likely has proven his worth as a consistent receiving option for Lamar Jackson.
Texans Receivers
While Nico Collins and Tank Dell led the new Texans’ receiving core in yards with 117 and 40, respectively, Diggs was the primary focus in the red zone. Inside the 20, Diggs recorded catches on all three of his targets, two of which became touchdowns. Additionally, all three plays were designed to go to Diggs.
Stefon Diggs had 3 catches (2 TD) on 3 targets in the red zone, all of which were by design pic.twitter.com/VPwJqbp1Nm
— Jack Reinhart 〽️ (@JackJReinhart) September 9, 2024
In the Texans’ four red zone pass attempts, Diggs was on the field for all four while Collins and Dell were each on the field for three. Interestingly, however, both Collins and Dell each got an opportunity in two wide receiver sets in the red zone. I’m interested to see how Houston’s red zone receiver usage progresses in the future, but for now, it looks as if Stefon Diggs has secured a permanent role on the field in those situations.
Conclusion
While Week 1 is incredibly important for visualizing the different ways coaches plan on utilizing their players, it also provides a very small sample size. As we progress further into the NFL season, we will find ourselves with better, more consistent information. Make sure to check back every week for the most up-to-date Red Zone Report.
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit