Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to Players Who POP for Week 8 of the 2024 season, where we try to identify bounce-back players who can give our fantasy teams a much-needed boost or players who may be due for a bit of a fall from grace from a production standpoint. What a brutal week for injuries. It’s been so tough with so many high-profile players out for the year. Still, we must persevere, and the POP model can help us a ton. Let’s dig in to find the players who are under or over-valued heading into the second half of the fantasy football season.

Methodology

Each week, we use machine learning to predict rest-of-season average fantasy scoring. You can read the complete strategy behind POP, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here but here’s the tl;dr: The two best-performing metrics for predicting player fantasy points per game were player share of team opportunity value and teammate fantasy points per game. This model understands that team strength – measured in teammate fantasy production – does in fact play a factor in an individual’s fantasy success, albeit at roughly one-third the importance of a player’s opportunity according to variable importance tests. What is opportunity value, you ask? Without getting too far into the weeds (the linked article goes deep if you’re curious), we’re using a machine learning strategy called “stacking” – using several sub-models (like expected receptions, expected rushes, etc.) as predictors in a new model. Each sub-model is also a machine learning model, but they are rolled up (or “stacked”) into one metric in order to improve predictions within this final model.

Note: The original article refers to this roll-up metric as “expected fantasy points,” but that’s a bit of a misnomer. Instead opportunity value is a more appropriate renaming for this volume metric created in the feature engineering phase of the model-building process.  The metric is distinctly different than pre-existing expected fantasy points metrics like the one expertly analyzed in our Expectation Report series.

Running Backs

Regression Candidate: Joe Mixon

It’s hard to ignore how productive Mixon has been of late. He’s scored four touchdowns in the last two games and has averaged an impressive 5.8 yards per opportunity over that span. Mixon now ranks 11th among running backs in efficiency metrics. However, I’m skeptical about this level of fantasy output continuing indefinitely. While he has benefited from favorable game scripts and red zone opportunities, there are some signs pointing toward a regression. With the Texans favored by 5.5 points at home against Indianapolis, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype but this might be the perfect time to sell high — Mixon is still a rock-solid RB1, but not a high-end one, despite what the numbers say right now. The passing game will eventually take over a larger share of the production pie… it has to, right?

Regression Candidate: Kareem Hunt

It wasn’t long ago that Kareem Hunt was this article’s breakout darling pick. Now, he’s seen more usage than any other back in the league over the past two weeks, averaging an astounding 25.5 opportunities per game and scoring three touchdowns since taking over lead back duties. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — Hunt has been middling in terms of efficiency, posting only 4.2 yards per touch, and he hasn’t ripped off any rushes of 10+ yards yet this year. Sure, he’s still the every-down back on a team that will continue to find itself in positive game scripts, especially as 10-point favorites against the Raiders this week, but I think we’re in a trade window for Hunt as well: if you can use Hunt’s current value and matchup to level up to a true WR1 (Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, or Justin Jefferson) I’d do what’s needed to get the deal done.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Nick Chubb

Seeing Nick Chubb back on the field after that brutal 2023 injury was a great thing for everyone, and he even found the end zone last week, again great to see, but the efficiency wasn’t quite there: just 32 yards on 14 opportunities, which is well below his usual standards. However, there are a couple of positives worth mentioning. Chubb saw three targets in Week 7, tied for the second-most he’s seen in the past two seasons, which suggests that he may be in line for an uptick in receiving work this year. Additionally, the Browns are upgrading to Jameis Winston at quarterback, which should lead to a more productive offense overall, especially in the red zone where Chubb typically thrives. I’m not letting one inefficient game deter me. Chubb seems poised for a strong finish on an offense poised to take a step forward together without the man under center bringing everyone down.

Regression Candidate: Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison has been one of just a few bright spots in an otherwise bleak Raiders offense this season. With three straight weeks of double-digit fantasy points, he’s clearly become a consistent contributor on middling volume, providing relative stability in an offense that lacks it in all phases. But if we look a bit deeper, Mattison has been overperforming pretty much everywhere: he’s not evading tackles or creating big rush plays. And while he’s averaged 9.6 yards per reception, which is sixth-best among running backs, with Gardner Minshew taking over for the injured Aidan O’Connell, we might see more downfield passing and less reliance on check-downs to Mattison. I don’t have strong convictions here, but he sticks out like a sore thumb on the chart.

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Wide Receivers

Ugh. Such a tough year for wide receiver injuries. As we pick up the pieces, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Jalen McMillan should have his usage soar with Chris Godwin out for the year and Mike Evans sidelined for weeks in Tampa Bay. Jauan Jennings is also likely to see significantly more opportunities with Brandon Aiyuk done for the year and Deebo Samuel‘s status uncertain in San Francisco. Even with the Lions, it’s hard to bet against their main options as Jameson Williams is suspended for the next two games, and yet…

Regression Candidate: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the type of player I have the most trouble with in fantasy football. He’s somehow found the end zone four times over the last four games. Fantastic. But put simply, he’s not getting elite WR1 volume. His targets over the past three weeks? Six, four, and eight. Not exactly awesome, but the production has stayed top-notch nonetheless. This kind of production on relatively low target volume is just difficult to sustain, especially for a player who typically thrives on heavy usage and short-yardage efficiency. Losing Jameson Williams could mean St. Brown stays hot, I suppose, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dip in production soon if the volume doesn’t pick up. This week’s matchup against Tennessee could be a challenging one too as the Titans are the fifth-best in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Hold St. Brown if you’re a believer, but don’t be afraid to shop him around for elite value, especially while his touchdown streak might be slightly inflating his perceived worth.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Tyler Lockett

DK Metcalf dodged a major injury, but he might still miss some time, which opens the door for Lockett to step up in a significant way. While a lot of people will be eager to jump on the Jaxon Smith-Njigba hype train, I think Seattle is more likely to turn to their veteran receiver as they cling to first place in the NFC West. Lockett’s metrics aren’t eye-popping at just 1.5 yards per route run on a 9.5 average depth of target (aDOT), but he’s seeing steady volume of late, with six or more targets in five straight games. He’s also been averaging one red zone target per game. There are just enough “outs” here to take a chance on Lockett, whether it’s increased volume, better efficiency, or simply taking advantage of Metcalf’s absence, there’s enough to like here.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Tank Dell

It’s been a tough season for Dell so far. He’s WR50 in target share, WR58 in air yards share, and sits outside the top 40 in expected points added. But I’m still betting on Houston’s passing offense coming together and finding its rhythm in the weeks to come. With Nico Collins out, the Texans are in real need of playmakers, and Dell could (should) be the spark that reignites this offense. But they looked inept for much of the afternoon against Green Bay last week. That can’t happen going forward. Dell’s playing time is at least encouraging — he’s running routes on over 90% of team pass plays and has averaged 6.5 targets per game over the last two weeks. Plus, Week 8 brings a juicy matchup against the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards per play allowed and 20th against WRs in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, so we’ve got a good shot for the turnaround to happen in Week 8.

Tight Ends

I almost feel guilty for lacking some sort of hot take on this position. Can anybody other than George Kittle and Brock Bowers actually be useful for fantasy football? Sam LaPorta has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year, but has yet another chance to succeed with a condensing target share likely in Detroit? Can Pat Freiermuth make something happen with Russell Wilson looking competent in Pittsburgh? One thing I know for sure: the numbers can say Brock Bowers is overperforming all they want, I ain’t fading him.

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Bounce-Back Candidate: Colby Parkinson

If the Rams trade Cooper Kupp in the coming weeks, this would change the team’s entire offensive dynamic and almost certainly force Parkinson into a larger role. Yeah, his Week 7 output wasn’t great with just two targets, and it was especially disappointing after he averaged 10 per game in the two weeks prior, but the underlying opportunity and upside remain strong. He’s TE6 in opportunity value and TE2 in red zone targets this season, which is more than we can say about pretty much any other tight end in this part of the value tier. It could finally be time for Sam LaPorta to rise up the ranks, but Parkinson’s underlying metrics make him my favorite to break out of this milquetoast mid-tier of the position in a horrible year for tight ends.

POP Scores (Previous Opportunity-Based Projection) – Week 8