Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to Players Who POP for Week 4 of the 2024 season. Each week we use machine learning to rest-of-season average fantasy scoring with a major emphasis on opportunity value and overall team strength. You can learn about the methodology for creating the metrics, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here. As we hit the bye weeks soon and injuries continue to mount, we can use POP to identify players who stand out as in-season bounce-back candidates. It’ll also identify some regression candidates who might be good options to “sell high” in trades or who might need lower expectations going forward. Let’s dig into the data and see if we can use it to make more informed start-sit decisions and maybe even help spark some advantageous trade ideas in your fantasy football leagues.
Running Backs
Bounce-Back Candidate: Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson was atrocious for fantasy purposes in Week 3, amassing just 23 yards on the ground on six carries, as the Patriots, playing from behind all night, floundered and sputtered offensively in what was by far their worst showing of the young season. Stevenson was game-scripted away and benched entirely after a costly third quarter fumble, but brighter days are ahead as Stevenson will once again be called upon as a lead back, and currently ranks top-five among healthy backs in POP score. We probably aren’t going to get a ton of multi-touchdown games from Stevenson, that’s just the nature of the offense he plays for. But a 70% snap share and 20 opportunities per game is still a very reasonable weekly projection, and that’s something you can say about very few running backs in the entire league.
Regression Candidate: Saquon Barkley
Barkley is in contention to be ranked as the number one overall running back in rest-of-season ranks, but I think the production has been a bit inflated to start the year. For one, he’s run incredibly hot in the touchdown category, scoring four times on the ground and once through the air already. And don’t get me wrong, from a pure opportunity value standpoint, his workload is rock solid, especially with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith ailing. But there’s at least a chance that this is the pinnacle of Barkley’s value all season. We could still see the team move more towards their quarterback in short-yardage and goal line situations, and once they return, the Eagles could easily have multi-game stretches where they rely on their top two receivers to win games for them. Barkley is a locked-and-loaded top-tier back the rest of the way, but according to POP score, he’s just not RB1.
Regression Candidate: David Montgomery
Montgomery still earns opportunities based on game flow in a way that is nerve-wracking to most fantasy managers, but the bottom line is that the opportunities have continued to be there for Montgomery, which means he has a fairly high floor week-in and week-out, but similar to Barkley above, he’s already found the end zone three times in three games. No doubt about it: This “thumper” role within the Ben Johnson offense is a touchdown-scoring machine – it was in 2022 for Jamaal Williams, and again last year for Montgomery, but eventually that is going to shift. Inevitably, this team will rely more on their young weapons, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs, and superstar receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and without the touchdowns, Montgomery’s opportunity value puts him at more of a mid-tier RB2 rather than a rock-solid RB1 like his recent scores suggest.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Raheem Mostert
Mostert hasn’t played since Week 1, when he saw nine total opportunities, turning that into just 19 total yards, but the Dolphins will need their playmakers out of the backfield as they move to their third starting quarterback in the season’s first four weeks. Mostert, who led the position in touchdowns a season ago, should also go back to the goal line role immediately. And while there’s plenty of uncertainty about this game’s outcome due to quarterback play, the Dolphins are quietly home favorites against the Titans, and have a chance to be favored against the Patriots a week after that as well. After the team’s Week 6 bye, Tua Tagovailoa is eligible to return, which would dramatically increase the upside of every player on the entire offense.
Wide Receivers
Bounce-Back Candidate: Keenan Allen
Allen looks set to return from a two week absence, and there are concerns that the heel injury – which he originally suffered last season – could hamper him the rest of the way. But Caleb Williams was peppering Allen when he was on the field Week 1. Despite playing on just two-thirds of team snaps, Allen led the team with 11 targets, including multiple passes that could have gone for scores. His final statline of four catches for 29 yards, followed by his two missed games, might mean he’s close to free in trade negotiations, but POP score says that, at least in a one-game sample size, Allen’s opportunity is elite, even within the confines of an anemic Bears offense that has yet to find their way.
Regression Candidate: Tee Higgins
Higgins returned from a hamstring injury suffered the week before the season and played on 90% of team snaps, earning six targets in the process. Not bad, but not as much as we were expecting, especially considering how many points (and fantasy points) the Bengals scored in a losing effort against the Commanders. Similar to Keenan Allen above, a combination of injury-zeroes and disappointing box score statlines is a recipe for some fantasy gamers to lose the faith entirely. Don’t make that mistake with Higgins, who was close to salvaging his day with a score late. The big games will be there for Higgins, especially since the Bengals could find themselves in some potential shootouts coming up with contests against the Panthers, Ravens, and Giants over the next three weeks.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk is going to be just fine. 10 targets last week, and five in the two games before are exactly what we’d expect for a player who missed the whole preseason. No, the production has not been there. Yes, the highest yardage total he’s had all season is 48 (while his teammate Jauan Jennings just went scorched-earth and dropped 45 fantasy points in his first week as a starter), but I have very little concern about the 49ers’ former first-rounder, who continues to play on 80% or more of snaps and operates on an offense that can put up points in bunches. The breakout might take one more week, but I’m buying the future production here.
Regression Candidate: Alec Pierce
Two of Pierce’s 12 total targets this season have gone for touchdowns. That’s pretty much all you need to know about the level of performance over expectations that Pierce has accomplished thus far. Pierce isn’t a bad player by any stretch – he’s played between 77% and 95% of snaps in all three of the Colts’ games. But 18.8 yards per target and a touchdown per game? That’s not continuing. Plus the Colts have three tough defenses ahead with the Steelers, Jaguars (well maybe they’re not as tough after their Week 3 thrashing at the hands of the Bills), and Titans over the next three weeks.
Tight Ends
Bounce-Back Candidate: Jonnu Smith
We’re entirely grasping at straws here. The position is a horrifying dumpster fire, and at this rate, the position may be dropped en masse from a bunch of leagues if this continues as a completely unprojectable nightmare. And worse (for me) is that so many have scored at- or near-expected value. Enter Jonnu Smith, who flashed in Week 2 before Tagovailoa was knocked out of the game, but then reverted back to earning just three targets on a 38% snap share last weekend. Smith has just high enough of a POP score to be picked up, and with Tyler Huntley – a quarterback who traditionally heavily targets tight ends – it might not be at all a bad idea to give Smith a speculative stash.