Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to Players Who POP for Week 3 of the 2024 season. This offseason, I used machine learning to predict average fantasy scoring with a major emphasis on team strength. You can learn about the methodology for creating the metrics, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here. It’s been a tough year from an injury standpoint, but the help of this metric, nicknamed POP (previous opportunity-based projection), helps fill out that much-needed depth by identifying players that stand out as in-season bounce-back candidates. It’ll also identify some regression candidates who might be good options to “sell high” in trades. Let’s dig into the data and see if we can use it to make more informed start-sit decisions and maybe even help spark some advantageous trade ideas in your fantasy football leagues.

Running Backs

Regression Candidate: De’Von Achane

It’s always terrifying betting against someone with the talent of Achane, who looks electric with the ball in his hands and has a stellar usage profile (RB1 in weighted opportunities) coming out of Week 2. But I think the calls to rank him overall RB1 are overblown. Besides the fact that POP sees Achane as more of a mid-range RB1, the downside risk is now impossible to ignore. Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out for the foreseeable future, meaning the team’s weekly scoring drives are likely to be drastically reduced with Skylar Thompson at the helm. Raheem Mostert is back in the fold this week, as he’s already practicing as of Wednesday, and he still shares the field with two of the fastest, most talented, and highest-paid receivers in the NFL. Unless Thompson is able to produce a lot more than we think on a per-drive basis, Achane may not be able to produce like he did last Thursday for quite a while even if he gets plenty of work.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Najee Harris

Harris ranks 13th among all running backs in opportunity share and second in red zone touches, yet somehow ranks 33rd among backs in fantasy points per game in Arthur Smith’s abomination of an offense (that is inexplicably 2-0). Harris’ 3.9 yards per touch, outside the top 40 running backs, doesn’t help things either, and a few more weeks of performing at that clip could see his touches lower, but I don’t think we’re there yet. Harris has averaged 6.9 defenders in the box per rush, second most among all backs, which means he’s, unfortunately, getting a ton of hyper-predictable carries within an unimaginative scheme. And yet he’s still making people miss – his 23% juke rate ranks in the top 15. That’s good enough for me when I’m looking for a pure-volume RB2 to trade for on the cheap.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Rachaad White

White’s usage metrics are just too strong to bail on him, especially with how Tampa Bay’s offense is shaping up as a whole. Despite Bucky Irving performing admirably on his touches, we’ve still seen him hover around the 33% snap share mark, leaving the rest of the backfield for White. White ranks eighth in snap share, top 12  in opportunity rate, and is averaging 20 routes per game. And he’s been efficient through the air when called upon at two yards per route run. He’ll need to keep holding back the rookie, but his POP’s projection of him as a top-15 back feels almost conservative considering his current workload and team production. As long as Tampa keeps pushing the pace and White keeps the usage, the big fantasy performances will come.

Regression Candidate: J.K. Dobbins

I hate to fade Dobbins given everything he’s overcome but he’s sitting at just 29th in snap share and 32nd in opportunity share among running backs, and while the Chargers are running the ball plenty under Jim Harbaugh, it hasn’t resulted in elite volume, meaning we need to keep relying on per-touch efficiency. His 266 rushing yards in just two games leads all running backs, and his 1.39 fantasy points per opportunity is fourth, but with Gus Edwards still heavily involved and Justin Herbert taking rushing attempts as well, Dobbins’ season-long upside still feels capped. Plus, Dobbins’ volume could bump slightly if Justin Herbert misses time, but without their starting quarterback, the overall scoring potential completely plummets. I can’t confidently project a top-12 finish for Dobbins under these circumstances, which means he’s a sell-high, at least right now.

Wide Receivers

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Bounce-Back Candidate: Garrett Wilson

Wilson’s six targets in Week 2 might feel underwhelming after his 11-target performance in Week 1, but there’s no reason to panic. He was blanketed by L’Jarius Sneed for much of the afternoon against the Titans, and it resulted in a modest four catches for 57 yards. But Wilson’s underlying metrics remain strong. He’s ninth in air yard share and 12th in target share among all wide receivers, which means Aaron Rodgers is still ensuring Wilson gets his opportunities even when blanketed by defenses. And he’s giving Wilson a chance to make plays – Wilson’s target quality rating ranks 16th in the NFL. With 14 total route wins and the sixth-best win rate versus man coverage, I’m not worried at all. This week’s matchup against the Patriots may not be the highest-scoring affair, with an implied total of just 38.5 points, but Wilson’s week-winning fantasy scores will be here soon.

Regression Candidate: Jameson Williams

I don’t think you’re crazy if you’re actually willing to say that Williams is a buy-low candidate, ascending on his way to a true WR1, but the model does say that he is overperforming current expectations by quite a bit. Credit where credit’s due: he’s fifth in the NFL in targets, which is incredibly impressive, but it also has to do with the fact that Amon-Ra St. Brown missed time in Sunday’s loss, and that the receiving opportunity in Detroit has been much more spread out and varied than we expected to begin this season. It’s fair if you think that this is a sign of things to come, in which case you would bet on Williams as a buy-low, and there are some metrics in your favor (third in the NFL in area yard share, sixth in the NFL in total area yards, eighth in the NFL in total deep targets, and sixth among wide receivers in yards per out run), and sure it’s great to finally see things come to fruition for the first-rounder who has floundered for much of his first two seasons, but with players like Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown expected to get more work, alongside the backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (who can be leaned on in positive game scripts), this seems like a situation where Williams has been on the positive side of both opportunity and efficiency variance to start the season, but may come back down to earth as we get into the middle part of the year.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Amari Cooper

Cooper’s volume is exactly where you’d expect it — nine targets in Week 1, eight in Week 2 — but the production has been horrifyingly bad. He’s currently 85th in fantasy points per game and a shocking 78th in yards per route run. It seems to be due to a lack of chemistry with Deshaun Watson, as Cooper’s target accuracy rating ranks just 64th among wide receivers. Still, his 11 total route wins rank a decent 31st, and with the help of pure volume, he’s still sneaking into the top 30 wide receivers in POP, which may not be spectacular but it’s more serviceable than outside the top 80. With TE David Njoku likely out another week, Cooper’s opportunities should remain high, and if the connection with Watson improves even slightly, he has bounce-back potential as soon as this week versus the Giants. Top-12 positional upside may be out of reach this year, but don’t give up on him as a fantasy starter just yet.

Tight Ends

Bounce-Back Candidate: Taysom Hill

Hill had to leave the Saints’ blowout Week 2 win over the Cowboys, so it’s important to monitor his status, but as long as he’s healthy, I’m confident starting Hill, who continues to have one of the most unique usage profiles of any skill player in the league. A threat in multiple facets of the game, Hill has rushed eight times for an impressive 4.5 yards per carry and seen three targets in the passing game. Under Clint Kubiak’s new look, (dare I say) high-flying offense, somehow three (!!) Saints’ tight ends currently rank in the top seven of POP Score, with Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson exceeding expectations by quite a bit. Hill, however, has underperformed relative to his opportunities, but with the combination of versatile usage and the Saints scoring in bunches, Hill has a real shot at emerging as a reliable weekly starter in fantasy leagues in this wacky, chaotic year for tight ends.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Travis Kelce

Kelce’s efficiency finally seems to be falling off a cliff as we head into the midseason. While he’s still 13th in target share and seventh in air yard share among tight ends, Kelce looks much more mortal this year than we’re used to at less than a yard per route run. His underperformance relative to opportunity-based expectations is hard to ignore, but it’s also par for the course with other elite tight ends, so it’s only fair to give him the benefit of the doubt that he could turn it around as much as any in his underperforming positional cohort. With RB Isiah Pacheco placed on IR, the Chiefs are going to need their main skill players to step up, and Kelce is still a huge part of their offense. Kansas City’s high-powered offense overall gives him a boost in POP Score, but whether he can maintain his status as an elite option at the position is officially a big fat question mark. It’s not crazy to shop him around in your league if there’s a buyer, but I think we’ll almost certainly get an increase in opportunities for one of the most recognizable names in football, and that likely means a production boost, at least in the short term.