Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to this in-season edition of Players Who POP. This offseason, I used machine learning to predict average fantasy scoring with a major emphasis on team strength. You can learn about the methodology for creating the metrics, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here. We can use this expected scoring metric, nicknamed POP (previous opportunity-based projection), to identify players that stand out as in-season bounce-back and regression candidates at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Let’s dig into the data and see if we can use it to make more informed start-sit and trade decisions in our fantasy football leagues.
Running Backs
How to read the chart: The chart above displays the POP score in gray and the FP/Gm (HPPR) in team colors. Players whose colored bar exceeds the gray bar are “overperforming” expectations.
Regression Candidate: Joe Mixon
Mixon had 30 carries and tacked on three receptions en route to the second-most fantasy points of any running back in Week 1. His 159 rushing yards were the most he’s had in a game the last two seasons. And while traditional expected points metrics see his production as in-line or even below opportunity-based expectations, his POP score indicates that there’s likely a steep falloff for Mixon, and soon. Mixon and the Texans take on the Bears, who gave up a rushing score to Tony Pollard last week and had the third-worst yards per rush allowed in Week 1. However, they finished 2023 fourth-best in yards per attempt, which means their defensive line is a bit of a bounce-back candidate as well, making this pace for Mixon all the more difficult to maintain.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Kyren Williams
Williams has a much easier matchup against the Cardinals in Week 2, and is a solid buy-low trade candidate based on usage. Despite a modest showing production-wise in Week 1 with just 50 rushing yards and a measly four receiving yards, Williams’ opportunity share was promising as he played on 93.5% and 21 total looks. With teammate Puka Nacua going on IR, Williams and the rest of the Rams’ key playmakers are poised to capitalize on an increased share of the Rams’ offensive game plan, potentially boosting his productivity against an Arizona defense that just gave up 100 scrimmage yards to James Cook and allowed two rushing scores.
Wide Receivers
Regression Candidate: Cooper Kupp
Yes, Rams playmakers are going to get fed, but not *this* much. Kupp’s 21 targets are not something we’ll see every week, even if he’s going to get fed as the clear WR1 in the Los Angeles offense. A 43.8% target share cannot last. And we’ll also see how defenses adjust to the Rams’ passing attack, now that they know they don’t have to plan for both Kupp and Nacua. The Week 2 matchup against Arizona seems fine on paper, and of course, the high utilization in a pass-heavy offense means Kupp has a chance to lead the position in targets each week, but the scoring will come down, I can promise that.
Regression Candidate: Allen Lazard
This is an obvious one as Lazard finishes the week with top-10 usage at the position, even ahead of his superstar teammate Garrett Wilson (who is a bounce-back candidate himself). Lazard was targeted nine times and made six receptions for 89 yards, scoring two touchdowns in a blowout loss to the 49ers. His 31% target share surprised many as did his team-leading three red zone targets. That opportunity will almost certainly shift in the weeks to come. Currently, Lazard is sitting on a ridiculous dominator rating (share of team wide receiver touchdowns and yards) of 71.9%, which is of course unsustainable, but might be an indicator that Lazard has weekly WR2 potential. I need to see it again before I believe it.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Tank Dell
Dell played fourth fiddle in the Texans’ offense Sunday, amassing just eight fantasy points in a win over the Colts. Still, Dell was targeted seven times and earned 105 air yards, notably securing all three of the targets in his direction that were deemed catchable. He also managed his seven targets (24th among wideouts) on just a 64.9% snap share. (On that note, Dell’s 94% route participation rate means that Dell being on the field is a good tell that the Texans are passing). While we can expect production to fluctuate among the Texans’ big-four playmakers, the team clearly has big plans for Dell, and we could see a major reversion in fantasy scoring as soon as this week against the Bears.
Tight Ends
Bounce-Back Candidate: The Entire Position
Week 1 was historically rough for the entire tight end position (save for one certain Ravens player), with only three tight ends hitting double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR formats. This is almost certainly an anomaly. Part of it is offenses as a whole were sloppy in Week 1; teams had the lowest yards per pass attempt since 2003 and the highest sack rate in over 25 years. However, several of the usual suspects (Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, Evan Engram, and even Brock Bowers) had route shares above 75% indicating that the opportunities – and especially opportunities to score – will be just around the corner for the position as a whole.
Regression Candidate: Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely‘s Week 1 eruption had everyone buzzing as he became the priority waiver wire target in most fantasy football leagues heading into Week 2. Topping the TE charts with 12 targets, Likely pulled in nine of of those looks for 111 yards on a robust 30% target share and 36.7% air yards share. This is exciting for the athletic Likely, who has a chance to be a star at the position one day. But this is far from our weekly expectation for him, especially with the Ravens’ offense typically funneling looks through Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and their ground game against opponents less tough than Kansas City. Likely will probably have a few more spike weeks, but it’s going to be erratic. I’d try to see if I can trade him now if I could.