Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to Players Who POP for Week 10 of the 2024 season, where we try to identify bounce-back players who can give our fantasy teams a much-needed boost or players who may be due for a bit of a fall from grace from a production standpoint. As we hit the home stretch of the fantasy regular season, staying locked in to fluctuations in usage is more important than ever. Let’s dig into the data.

Methodology

Each week, we use machine learning to predict rest-of-season average fantasy scoring. You can read the complete strategy behind POP, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here but here’s the tl;dr: The two best-performing metrics for predicting player fantasy points per game were player share of team opportunity value and teammate fantasy points per game. This model understands that team strength – measured in teammate fantasy production – does in fact play a factor in an individual’s fantasy success, albeit at roughly one-third the importance of a player’s opportunity according to variable importance tests. What is opportunity value, you ask? Without getting too far into the weeds (the linked article goes deep if you’re curious), we’re using a machine learning strategy called “stacking” – using several sub-models (like expected receptions, expected rushes, etc.) as predictors in a new model. Each sub-model is also a machine learning model, but they are rolled up (or “stacked”) into one metric in order to improve predictions within this final model.

Note: The original article refers to this roll-up metric as “expected fantasy points,” but that’s a bit of a misnomer. Instead opportunity value is a more appropriate renaming for this volume metric created in the feature engineering phase of the model-building process.  The metric is distinctly different than pre-existing expected fantasy points metrics like the one expertly analyzed in our Expectation Report series.

Running Backs

Bounce-Back Candidate: Aaron Jones

It’s been two relatively quiet weeks in a row for Aaron Jones, with Jones failing to reach 100 total yards in either contest and going without a score as well. But there are plenty of underlying metrics that indicate that Jones has a chance to bounce right back in the weeks to come, especially in an extremely juicy matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. Jones ranks 10th among running backs in total targets and total red zone touches this season, and is 11th among all backs in yards per touch. He’s evading tackles at an above-average rate, and his seven rushes of 10 or more yards are seventh-best in the NFL as well. I don’t think fantasy gamers have anything to worry about when it comes to Jones and his efficiency, and Jones saw four targets for the first time in four weeks against the Colts in Week 9 as well. That target share is vital for Jones’ floor, but the ceiling games will be back soon.

Regression Candidate: De’Von Achane

Achane has been absolutely unstoppable since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa re-entered the fold; in fact, Achane is the top-scoring running back in all of fantasy football if you only include games where Tagovailoa has been the starter. Achane has now had back-to-back games with eight targets and is averaging 19 opportunities in those contests. He topped 100 total yards in both games as well, adding three total scores to the mix. That’s about as hot as you can run over a two-week stretch, and while we take nothing away from the player — who ranks ninth in yards per touch and fourth in yards per route run despite running the 13th-most routes of any running back this season — we also know that this level of production is very hard to keep up over a significant amount of time. Achane’s upcoming schedule isn’t terrifying, with games against the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots, who are all at or below league average in fantasy scoring allowed to running backs, but I still think we see a slight dip in production over the next few games.

Regression Candidate: J.K. Dobbins

Despite playing in a positive game script for much of the afternoon, J.K. Dobbins’ usage was actually a bit down this week, as he only received 14 carries — tied for the second-lowest rushes he’s had all season — and added only two targets, also tied for his second-lowest receiving volume. And yet, he came away with the most total yards he’s had in a game since Week 2, also adding two scores to the mix as well. Dobbins is in the midst of a resurgent season, handling the 18th-highest opportunity share and the 12th-most weighted opportunity, and it’s great to see him handle this heavy of a workload, especially with all the injuries that have piled up over the previous seasons. But Dobbins still ranks outside the top 25 running backs in yards per touch and outside the top 40 running backs in evaded tackles per touch, which isn’t to say he can’t be elusive or explosive, but he is being slightly propped up by touchdowns, as his six total scores are 11th among all running backs. Dobbins faces the Titans and Bengals before facing his former team, the Ravens, in Week 12.

Wide Receivers

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Regression Candidate: DeVonta Smith

Smith had one of the catches of the year in Week 9, but it wasn’t even the most popular highlight on his own team last week (thanks, Saquon). And there’s no doubt about it, Smith is a bona fide WR1 who just happens to play on a team with another bona fide WR1. It wasn’t a fluke that Smith did so much damage on just four receptions last week, but we have to examine the usage and adjust accordingly, and volume has been down for Smith overall. It hasn’t really caught up to him in the fantasy scoring department because he’s added touchdowns over the last two weeks, but he hasn’t had a game with more than seven targets since Week 3, and three of his last four games have seen him limited to three catches or fewer. Smith is outside the top 40 wide receivers in opportunity value but inside the top 15 receivers in fantasy scoring. That’s typically not a recipe for long-term fantasy success. Smith has the talent to overcome this discrepancy, but we’d rather simply see the opportunity jump back up.

Regression Candidate: DeAndre Hopkins

Well, that was fun! Hopkins looked downright joyful catching accurate pass after accurate pass from Patrick Mahomes, en route to a monster performance in Week 9. Playing on just 60% of team snaps, Hopkins saw nine targets, catching eight of them for 86 yards and two scores. He’s averaging over nine yards per target since joining the Chiefs and looks like he’ll be a problem in the red zone as well. This is a huge development for Kansas City, which was becoming rather predictable, leaning on Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce. But I’m still skeptical that Hopkins will see that level of production week after week, and of course, he won’t score twice weekly either. His nine targets were by far the most he’s seen all season. On top of that, Kansas City faces two defenses in a row that rank top 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers before an easy matchup against the Panthers. I’m expecting a bit of a bumpy ride from a fantasy perspective during that span.

Regression Candidate: Josh Downs

While I might have Downs in the regression category, it’s also safe to say that he’s becoming one of the most underrated players in the NFL. All the man does is earn targets. He’s now had five games where he’s seen nine or more looks, and in three of those games, he’s had at least two red zone looks as well. On top of that, he doesn’t actually need a ton of receptions in order to do damage, as he averages over 3.5 yards after catch per target this season. But I still think we see opportunity fluctuations from the Joe Flacco-led Colts as the season progresses. Downs may be the WR1, but I think we will see games where Pittman or Pierce come close to Downs’ usage. Essentially, this is a bet on Flacco spreading the ball around, not a bet against the player himself. Indianapolis has two tough defensive matchups coming up against the Bills and Jets.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Romeo Doubs

Doubs has been quiet two straight weeks now, totaling just 11 looks in Weeks 8 and 9 combined after seeing 10 targets in Week 7 alone. He’s still managed to do some damage, averaging over nine yards per target during this two-game span, but without finding the end zone it’s still been enough to knock Doubs outside the top 40 in fantasy points per game. However, many of Doubs’ opportunity metrics are affected by the fact that he plays with other strong receivers, and these POP scores show that Doubs has what it takes to be a weekly low-end WR1. With Green Bay on a bye this week, I think Doubs is a prime trade target for teams that are still in the mix. You won’t need to give up your best players, but he’s already proven he’s capable of scoring in the 15–20 fantasy point range when things break right for him. It should be noted, however, that Green Bay’s schedule is tough coming out of the bye, with games against Chicago and San Francisco, but after that, the schedule gets much, much easier for the entire offense.

Tight Ends

Regression Candidate: George Kittle

It was only fitting that Kittle, after absolutely destroying the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8 (a.k.a. National Tight Ends Day), got a week off to rest as the position’s top fantasy scorer. But now the bigger issue is, of course, Christian McCaffrey. The team is expected to have their top running back return to the fold starting this week, which means the offense will undoubtedly be centered around him once again, relegating the star tight end to at least second on the opportunity totem pole. Kittle isn’t going away by any stretch, especially with the number of injuries the team is dealing with at the wide receiver position, but I do think we’ve seen the best fantasy-scoring stretch of the season for Kittle already. I think he comes a bit back down to earth, which still might look like a TE1 in fantasy scoring, but maybe not the TE1. It’s scary to bet against a player like Kittle, but with the change in offensive identity on the horizon, it’s only fair to lower expectations a tiny bit… As I say all that, Kittle has three straight games upcoming against teams that rank outside the top 25 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. He might just make me look like a fool.

Bounce-Back Candidate: T.J. Hockenson

The stat line may not have been overly impressive in Week 9, but I was very encouraged by T.J. Hockenson‘s usage in his first game back from an ACL injury last December. Hockenson played on just 45% of team snaps, clearly being eased into the offense, but he still saw four targets on that limited playing time, catching three of those passes for 27 yards. If he’s able to ramp up to his typical 90% or higher snap share, we’re looking at a player who could be earning seven to nine targets very soon. For a position that has been a wasteland for many people this season, this could be an oasis in the desert. While there’s definitely uncertainty here, since we don’t know how much quarterback Sam Darnold will ultimately rely on Hockenson, especially with players like Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson in the mix, I think this may be the last chance to pry him from a team that has held on to him in their injured reserve spot all season. He’s almost certainly a low-end TE1, at worst, the rest of the season.

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POP Scores (Previous Opportunity-Based Projection) – Week 10