Players Who POP: Finding Mid-Round Draft Values (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to Players Who POP. In this multi-part series, I used machine learning to predict season-long fantasy scoring with a major emphasis on team strength. We can use this expected scoring metric, nicknamed POP (previous opportunity-based projection), to identify players that stand out in each tier of current fantasy drafts. The model is used to predict running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, however, quarterbacks are omitted from the analysis.
This article focuses on the middle rounds of drafts, identifying key values for players outside the top 36 flex options.
Players Who POP – Mid Rounds
There’s a growing sentiment among the fantasy community that rounds three through six in typical fantasy football drafts are somewhat flat in terms of predicted usage, floor, and ceiling. The POP scores, predicting average fantasy production for the upcoming season, also seem to bear that out. The blue line, indicating the general curve of predicted scoring in half-PPR leagues, flattens almost entirely from the 40th flex player off the board (Amari Cooper) until the 65th flex player (Hollywood Brown). While we see plenty of deviations and outliers in this range, which we’ll dig into further below, this should also be a freeing moment for us. For those thinking of venturing away from average draft position after your first few picks, this is your official sign-off on doing just that: it “get your guys szn” once you’re outside the top 30 flex players in your fantasy football drafts in 2024.
Improved Team Scenarios
It’s no surprise that Higgins looks highly suspect based on last year’s opportunity, but with Joe Burrow back under center and the team looking to make a deep playoff run in 2024 – not to mention Higgins is playing on the franchise tag and open about wanting a long-term contract – fantasy drafters are correctly pricing-in the immense upside of a player like Higgins within the Cincinnati offense. When the team is firing on all cylinders, they can be as explosive as any team in the league. Higgins was the WR26 in points per game in 2022, and was inside the top 30 among all wideouts last year in total expected points added, despite ranking outside the top 50 in total targets earned.
Two things are simultaneously true for McLaurin:
1. He’s unquestionably in a better offensive situation in 2024
2. He might be stuck in Kliff Kingsbury’s “WR1 stays out-wide” rut that we saw DeAndre Hopkins fall into at the end of his tenure with the Arizona Cardinals. McLaurin lined up outside, specifically on the left side, on all but one offensive snap he played this preseason.
might be seeing some route charts that look like this in a few short weeks pic.twitter.com/2nEDJkwqfP
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 19, 2024
Still, the veteran receiver has a chance for a career year with Jayden Daniels under center and a new offensive scheme. I prefer him a bit after his ADP, but his upside is undeniable with an improved quarterback and (hopefully) improved coaching staff. We’d love to see McLaurin get at least eight targets per game, or even closer to his career-best average of 8.9, but we should expect more than the 7.6 looks per game he saw in 2023.
Misvalued Players
Coming off a career year, the Chiefs’ bell-cow running back is still heavily underrated within the Kansas City pass-first offense. Pacheco averaged an extremely healthy 18.1 opportunities per game in 2023, including 3.5 targets per game. Better yet, over 20% of his total touches occurred inside the red zone. While the Chiefs have done everything they can to surround quarterback Patrick Mahomes with improved talent in the passing game, this could counterintuitively boost Pacheco’s ceiling, as he may have a chance to improve on his nine touchdowns (12th among running backs) if the Chiefs’ offense re-energizes and ranks better than 14th in offensive touchdowns per game. Pacheco is currently a smash at ADP.
Still just 26 years old, Jacobs moves from an unquestioned bell-cow role in Las Vegas to a slightly murkier usage situation in Green Bay, but one that could lead to significantly improved weekly receiving and scoring upside compared to his old team. While it’s unlikely Jacobs will match his 84% opportunity share from 2023 (best in the NFL), Green Bay finished 2023 tied for seventh in the NFL with 2.6 offensive touchdowns per game, and their 3.3 touchdowns per game over their last three contests led the NFL, meaning the scoring chances could be plentiful. Jacobs ranked 19th in targets last season and has never averaged more than 3.6 receptions per game in a season, slipping to 2.8 in 2023. Jacobs’ red zone touches were barely inside the top 15, and he ranked outside the top 50 in fantasy points per opportunity. If the receiving volume and red zone usage increase, as it appears they should, those efficiency metrics should skyrocket and more than make up for a slight decrease in overall volume.
I simply not a believer in Kincaid for fantasy football in 2024. The Bills clearly have big plans for their 2023 first-round pick within the Bills’ offense, and he’ll certainly play plenty, but there’s little indication that Kincaid will be “the guy” within the Bills’ passing attack, nor is it clear that the Bills want him to play that role. Yes, the back-weighted production looks enticing, particularly the eight-week stretch from Weeks 7 through 14 where he saw at least six targets in every game, including 1.1 red zone targets per game. The issue is that once Dawson Knox returned to the fold, Kincaid saw just one red zone look for the rest of the season, and topped 85 air yards just one time. Kincaid ranked outside the top 15 tight ends in targets per route run, share of team air yards, and yards per route run. Kincaid has upside, for sure, and it helps immensely that Josh Allen has been incredibly accurate getting Kincaid the ball (Kincaid’s target accuracy earned was best in the NFL in 2023), but Kincaid’s role within the offense does not match his ever-increasing ADP.
A Note on Tight Ends:
The POP model didn’t see a need to use player position as a vital indicator of performance, but it seems to be collectively down on tight end predictions across the board. At first, I thought the low tight end predictions were due to the nature of the position in 2023, as many high-profile players were injured in the early and mid-season (Kelce and Andrews), then came back into form late-season, while the breakout tight ends (like Kincaid and Trey McBride) didn’t do so until mid-year. But even if we re-run the model using averages from a player’s best eight-game stretch, we still don’t see significantly increased predictions.
Players Who POP – End of Single-Digit Rounds
Improved Team Scenarios
Pitts finds himself in a significantly revitalized offensive environment with the team’s acquisition of Kirk Cousins, a player who has a propensity to lean on short-area targets. Stability at the quarterback position, combined with the likely deployment of Pitts as a hybrid wide receiver/tight end, should open up the playbook for Pitts in ways not seen before in his career. New Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson’s scheme seems tailored to maximize Pitts’ unique blend of size, speed, and versatility, even if he’ll likely fall behind Drake London and Bijan Robinson in terms of overall usage.
Misvalued Players
Cook finished fourth among all backs in total rushing yards and eighth in receiving yards, yet he’s the 13th running back off the board and sometimes barely goes within the top 50 flex players. Cook averaged a fantastic 2.9 yards created per touch, top-20 among all backs, and ranked 12th in true yards per carry. With the Bills integrating several new receiving options in 2024, Cook’s role in the passing game could actually expand beyond the middling 3.2 targets per game he saw last season. Cook is one of the best mid-round running back values in the draft and is the best “dead zone” running back of 2024.
Walker’s total numbers from 2023 are just OK. He ranked 19th in rushing yards and 21st in receiving yards. He finished 2023 at a decent 4.7 yards per touch, good for 30th among running backs. But Walker simply makes people miss at an elite level. Walker’s 29% juke rate was second among all backs. And his 67% opportunity share indicates the Seahawks wanted him to be an every-down back when healthy. With the new Seahawks scheme under Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grub likely focusing more on a spread-out passing attack, many are concerned about a lack of volume for Walker when in reality we should be focused on the increased upside for one of the league’s most efficient backs, who will likely be playing in a higher–scoring offense. Walker was outside the top 20 in red zone touches per game last season, a number that will almost certainly be improved in 2024 within Grub’s scheme.
It’s always scary to bet on a free agent running back, particularly one that’s “over the hill” in terms of typical age curves at the position. But the 28-year-old Mixon has so little competition for touches within a borderline-elite Texans offense that we should be drafting Mixon with reckless abandon at ADP. Mixon has a chance to stay fairly even-keeled when it comes to touches. He ranked eighth among backs in snap share and third in opportunity share with the Bengals in 2023, and will likely remain in the top 10 in both metrics, leading Houston’s backfield in 2024. Mixon ranked seventh in expected fantasy points per game, and while the per-game efficiency wasn’t spectacular (he finished 0.7 points below expected), if the opportunity looks anything like it did last year, and quarterback C.J. Stroud continues his ascent into the upper echelon of signal-callers, Mixon could end up as one of the being one of the best value picks in all of fantasy football.
Comments
DeAndre Hopkins had 115 receptions and 1400 yards, in the pro bowl and 2nd team All Pro in 2020. What do you mean by Terry is: “2. He might be stuck in Kliff Kingsbury’s “WR1 stays out-wide” rut that we saw DeAndre Hopkins fall into at the end of his tenure with the Arizona Cardinals. McLaurin lined up outside, specifically on the left side, on all but one offensive snap he played this preseason.”
I am still not drafting Rashad White. I don’t care what the POP says.