NFL Team Performance Trends Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 14. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Time to get into the numbers.
Team Performance Trends
The following takeaways mainly refer to the EPA trendline chart shown below, which shows how each team is trending both offensively and defensively week to week.
The Ravens are trending down in defensive efficiency, as they have had their 2nd consecutive week of decreased efficiency. They face the Steelers in Week 14, giving players like DK Metcalf and Jaylen Warren an opportunity to put up solid numbers.
The Bills’ defense has drastically improved in recent weeks, having its 3rd week of growth in efficiency in Week 13. They take on the Bengals in Week 14, so don’t expect guys like Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Chase Brown to have massive games.
The Jaguars’ defense has been on the rise as far as EPA/play goes, as they rise to hold a 0.04 EPA/play on defense this season. They face the Colts this week, whose offense has conversely been getting less efficient over time. The Colts have taken a four-week tumble into posting a negative EPA/play offensively in Week 13. Their division matchup isn’t a great one for them, so avoid starting players like Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs.
The Packers’ offense is on the rise in efficiency, with their 3rd consecutive week of positive EPA/play. They have a 0.11 EPA/play on the season, which ranks 5th in the league. They take on the Bears, who have allowed nearly three points per touch to WRs in the last five weeks; look for another air attack from the Packers, where Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs all put up viable numbers for a deep league FLEX start.
Positional Trends
The following section will mainly reference the table below, ‘NFL Defensive Performance Against Each Position’.
The Lions cannot stop the air attack. They have allowed 3.22 points per touch to WRs and 3.15 points per touch to TEs in the last 5 weeks. They face the Cowboys in Week 14, giving George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson openings for MASSIVE weeks.
The Commanders have struggled against every position group recently. They take on Minnesota in Week 14, and if JJ McCarthy is good to go, it could be an opportunity for the young QB to bounce back from his extreme struggles. Washington has allowed 0.59 points per touch to QBs in the last five weeks, tied for the 3rd most in the league.
Looking for a TE spot start? The Dolphins have allowed 2.81 points per touch to TEs in the last five weeks and face the Jets in Week 14. Look for Mason Taylor to put up a fantasy viable performance.
Still, the Bucs struggle against RBs. Over the last five weeks, they have allowed 1.17 points per touch to RBs, second most in the league. They face the Saints in Week 14, giving Alvin Kamara a chance for a monster performance if he goes, and Devin Neal the chance for a breakout if not.
Below are the general NFL rankings for both offensive and defensive EPA/play this season.
