Overachievers & Underperformers for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
Oh, there is nothing quite like the first week of fantasy football. Right now, you are either the person with half your roster already questionable, or you walked into work Monday morning with a little extra pep in your step.
I like to think of Week 1 fantasy football as the first day of school. Everyone is ready to get back into the swing of things; you are getting ready to see both new and old friends again; you are spending hours packing the first lunch; and ultimately, you are preparing for another year of convincing yourself that this is going to be your year.
Fantasy football is basically the same thing. We are more than ready to get back into the swing of things. We are familiarizing ourselves with the new rookies and making sure our must-have guys are ready to go. We are firing up the group chat or Discord, and we are spending all weekend eating layered bean dip while watching the players we spent months researching, ranking, and eventually drafting finally take the field.
Then Tuesday morning hits, and that first-day excitement wears off.
Just like the first day of school, you are exhausted, and suddenly there is lots of homework. In fantasy, that means sifting through the waiver wire, submitting claims, reading injury reports, looking at snap counts and target shares, and participating in the decades-old tradition of repeatedly telling yourself…
“It is only Week 1. My team can still come back.”
And, to be fair, it absolutely can.
One week is an incredibly small sample size. A monster performance does not automatically mean a breakout, just like one fantasy dud does not mean it is time to hit the panic button. But Week 1 gives us our first real data of the season, which makes separating meaningful trends from opening-week weirdness even more important.
So, let us review some of the biggest overperformers and underperformers from Week 1, dig a little deeper into the numbers behind their performances, and figure out what might have been a fluke and who could be here to stay.
Underperformer: Ja’Marr Chase
Week 1: 2 Receptions, 4 Targets, 12 Rec Yds, 0 TDs
Fantasy Pts: 3.2 PPR / 1.2 STD
ROS Projected Fantasy Pts: 351.7
If you drafted Ja’Marr Chase in the first round, which I am sure plenty of people reading this did, then I am truly sorry, and I am right there with you. If anything, you can take what I am about to say to heart because I also took Chase in the first round and spent Sunday refreshing the Sleeper app to see if maybe they had forgotten to count a catch. Or a few yards. Or literally anything.
Nope.
Chase finished Week 1 with just two catches on four targets, which turned into 12 yards in Cincinnati’s 33-27 win over Tampa Bay. For some perspective, he did not have a single game below 35 receiving yards last season. So yes, people, this was definitely bad.
Me after drafting Ja’Marr Chase with my 1st pick… pic.twitter.com/jwZe04GVB2
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) September 15, 2026
But before we, myself included, start freaking out after one game, this is where looking beyond the box score becomes important.
Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) measures how often a player is targeted when he actually runs a route. For someone like Chase, it can help us figure out whether a bad fantasy day came from a concerning lack of involvement or simply an inefficient game where the opportunities never materialized.
I think Sunday looked a lot more like the latter. Joe Burrow nearly gifted Tampa Bay a pick-six, the Buccaneers heavily guarded Chase, and Burrow simply could not connect with his WR1. That extra attention also opened things up elsewhere: TE Mike Gesicki finished with five catches for 78 yards and a TD as Tampa Bay focused on containing Chase and Tee Higgins.
Look, that does not completely let Chase off the hook. He is one of the best WRs in the NFL and should be able to find ways to produce against this kind of coverage. That is, of course, my extremely unprofessional opinion as someone who was watching from the couch eating the aforementioned bean dip.
However, four targets is still worth monitoring. Volume has traditionally been one of the safest parts of Chase’s fantasy profile, so another game with this little involvement would not be ideal. One game, however, is nowhere near enough evidence to suggest his role in Cincinnati’s offense has suddenly changed drastically.
The Fantasy Footballers still project Chase for 351.7 Fantasy Pts ROS, which is a helpful reminder that Week 1 was exactly that: Week 1. You drafted Chase for an entire season, not one mildly infuriating Sunday.
No panic button yet. But after four targets? I get it. Nobody needs to tell us fantasy managers twice to keep an eye on it.
Ja’Marr Chase against the Bucs pic.twitter.com/qtBa9xVvRa
— betr (@betr) September 13, 2026
Overperformer: Jalen Coker
Week 1: 8 Receptions, 9 Targets, 138 Rec Yds, 2 TDs
Fantasy Pts: 33.8 PPR / 25.8 STD
ROS Projected Fantasy Pts: 165.8
Well, hello, Jalen Coker!
Before Week 1, I am sure plenty of fantasy managers were not starting, or even rostering, Jalen Coker. If you were, I would like the number of your psychic.
How life feels knowing you drafted Jalen Coker pic.twitter.com/GpzvP2XaAY
— SleeperPanthers (@SleeperCarolina) September 15, 2026
Coker finished with eight receptions, 138 yards, and two TDs. You know, basically everything I was asking Ja’Marr Chase to do. He did not just overperform. He overperformed into another millennium compared to what we expected from his fantasy ceiling.
The good news is that there was some real substance behind his fantasy explosion. Coker saw nine targets and ultimately led Carolina’s offense in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. QB Bryce Young attempted 37 passes, meaning Coker was targeted on nearly a quarter of Carolina’s pass attempts. He also accounted for a 26.5% Target Share and 33.9% of the Panthers’ completed passes. In other words, Young was not just randomly throwing Coker the ball. He was actively looking his way, and looking his way downfield.
Places where Jalen Coker is still available on the Waiver Wire:
1- Narnia
2- Middle Earth
3- Westeros
4- Wakanda
5- Asgard
6- Hogwarts— Theo Gremminger (@TheOGfantasy) September 15, 2026
Coker made those opportunities count, and that is also critical to look for in a player. His first TD came from 51 yards out, while his second was an eight-yard score in the fourth quarter. That gives us two different kinds of fantasy-friendly usage: the ability to create a massive play downfield and involvement closer to the end zone.
Now for the tiny rain cloud hovering over our beautiful little waiver-wire parade: Coker was spotted in a walking boot on Monday. He rolled his left ankle in the first quarter against Chicago but called the boot “precautionary” and expects to play in Week 2. The fact that he still dropped 138 yards and two TDs on a hurt ankle makes his performance even more ridiculous. Still, his practice participation is absolutely something to monitor this week.
The Fantasy Footballers currently project Coker for 165.8 Fantasy Pts ROS, so please do not read this and start mentally budgeting for 33.8 PPR Pts every week. The two TDs are the obvious regression candidate, but the underlying usage gives us reason to keep paying attention. If Coker continues to exceed expectations and carve out a consistent role in this offense, he could be one of the more fun breakout players to watch this season.
Jalen Coker is Carolina’s WR1 and I’m tired pretending he isn’t pic.twitter.com/uJyY7Bb9QZ
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) September 14, 2026
Underperformer: Terry McLaurin
Week 1: 2 Receptions, 4 Targets, 14 Rec Yds, 0 TDs
Fantasy Pts: 3.4 PPR / 1.4 STD
ROS Projected Fantasy Pts: 171.4
ROS Projected PPG: 10.7
Oh, Terry. I cannot believe I fell for you again. I really thought this year would be different. New season, healthy Jayden Daniels, fresh start. Nope. I am a Washington football fan, so once again, I am going to use this article as an opportunity to get personal because this man did not play like he was worth $96 million.
Terry gets paid!💰 #ad News and Notes is sponsored by @Progressive. Visit https://t.co/Tgdz8TwhvP to quote today.
The Commanders signed Terry McLaurin to a 3-year extension worth up to $96 million. Jayden Daniels managers rejoice! pic.twitter.com/DmMcoA8b1c
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 25, 2025
“Invisible” might actually be the best word to describe it. Daniels attempted 34 passes against Philadelphia, yet only four went to McLaurin. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs had nine targets, and rookie Antonio Williams matched McLaurin with four. For a player we drafted expecting to remain Washington’s WR1, that target distribution is easily the most concerning part of the performance.
New OC David Blough talked this offseason about wanting to get McLaurin around 10 Targets per game and then build the passing attack around him. Week 1 gave us four. I am no mathematician, but I believe that is six fewer than promised.
Also, at this point, we know Daniels tends to be a second-half QB. Last season, his passer rating jumped from 80.0 in the first half to 98.0 in the second, and five of his eight passing TDs came after halftime. So, I can live with Terry being quiet early if Daniels eventually starts cooking. But if McLaurin is not involved in the first half or when the offense gets going in the second, then I am not exactly sure when we are supposed to be getting these promised fantasy points from Terry McLaurin.
Still, there is a reason the Fantasy Footballers have not completely thrown Terry into the fantasy football dumpster with the rest of us. They currently project him for 171.4 fantasy points ROS and 10.7 PPG, and his underlying numbers from the last couple of seasons suggest that he still has the opportunity to do more.
There is also the fact that Philadelphia was about as unfriendly a Week 1 matchup as Terry could have drawn. So, am I dropping Terry McLaurin after one game? Obviously not.
But am I thrilled that the man who was supposed to see something resembling Stefon Diggs-level involvement was practically invisible?
Also, obviously not.
Terry McLaurin when i need him to do anything pic.twitter.com/t0lyR1aX8v
— Novo (@NovoHeat) September 13, 2026
Overperformer: Kenneth Walker III
Week 1: 23 Carries, 173 Rush Yds, 2 TDs
Fantasy Pts: 34.1 PPR / 31.1 STD
ROS Projected Fantasy Pts: 278.5
ROS Projected PPG: 17.4
And finally, Kenneth Walker III, who really came out swinging in his first game.
Walker had himself a DAY in Week 1 – not a bad way to start the season for fantasy managers who may have been questioning exactly what they were going to get from Walker this year.
Unlike some massive Week 1 performances, there is a lot to like about Walker’s performance. Beast Mode, as my dad calls it. Walker was not relying on a couple of lucky trips to the end zone to save his fantasy day. He was consistently productive, heavily involved in the offense, and showed exactly why fantasy managers were excited about what a move to Kansas City could mean for him.
Seahawks fans watching Kenneth Walker go nuclear on the Chiefs… pic.twitter.com/Lw6QkbqBKu
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) September 15, 2026
And this was not just a great Kenneth Walker game by normal Kenneth Walker standards. His 173 rushing yards and 191 total yards were both career highs, and the 173 rushing yards were the second-most ever by a veteran RB making his debut with a new team. So yes, you could say he made himself at home in Missouri pretty quickly.
Now, 34.1 PPR Pts every week would be lovely, but his day was certainly helped by a 60-Yd TD run on fourth down. However, even if you take away that massive play, he still averaged more than five yards per carry on his other 22 rushes. At the end of the day, this was not a fantasy performance held together by one lucky play and a prayer. Walker looked good, and his 278.5 ROS projection and 17.4 PPG from the Fantasy Footballers are pretty encouraging, too.
Obviously, Walker overperformed that weekly projection in Week 1 by nearly double, but there is a difference between an unsustainable fantasy explosion and a great player simply having a great game.
So yes, Kenneth Walker III belongs in the overperformer section. This time. But considering I passed on him in my draft, I am putting him here reluctantly.
Until next week.
Me at work all day after starting 0-1 in fantasy and losing every Week 1 TD parlay pic.twitter.com/dNHZk75y74
— br_betting (@br_betting) September 15, 2026