DFS Monday Night Football: DraftKings for Week 1
For the next 18 weeks, your Monday may suck, but your Monday nights will not. Our beloved MNF is back, so let’s look at some ways we can attack the GPP field in Showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning Showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat Showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: KC -2.5
Total: 43.5
Team Totals: KC (23) and DEN (20.5)
Game Outlook
The market has been telling us something all month: this is not the old Chiefs tax.
KC was trading in the -150s on the moneyline a few weeks ago. We are now around -125 to -130 across the sharper markets, with DEN available around +110 to +120. The spread is similarly tight, sitting between KC -1.5 and -2.5 depending on where you shop.
That is a pretty interesting number for Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead, but there are legitimate questions. Mahomes is playing his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL, while Bo Nix returns from the ankle injury that ended DEN’s AFC Championship run. DEN also swept KC last season on its way to winning the AFC West.
The 43.5 total is the other number that matters for Showdown. We have a competitive spread paired with one of the lower-scoring environments. That opens the door for some uglier lineup constructions, including kickers and DSTs, instead of automatically trying to jam six skill position players into every build.
KC will also be without starting OT Josh Simmons, while DEN enters Monday night without a single player carrying an injury designation.
My read: the field will still naturally gravitate toward Mahomes and the Chiefs because we have been trained to do that for years. The betting market is giving us permission to think about this game differently.
Injury Report
DEN
- None
KC
- OT Josh Simmons, back: OUT
- DB Chamarri Conner, knee: OUT
From a DFS perspective, there is not much injury uncertainty to account for here, although Simmons’ absence is worth noting against a strong DEN defense.
Top Captain Plays
Kenneth Walker $15,900
My favorite CPT on the slate. He projects as one of the highest scorers in the game with a legit 30-point ceiling, but the field is only putting him at CPT in roughly one of six lineups. The field loves jamming in the QB at CPT like a fat kid loves cake. – 50 Cent.
DEN allowed just 91.1 rushing yards per game last season, so the matchup is difficult, but I am willing to bet on Walker’s workload in his Chiefs debut rather than let the matchup scare me away.
Stack Idea: Walker CPT + Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton
Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Rashee Rice $14,100
At that price, he offers a slight discount while still having an opportunity ceiling in the game. If Rice gets there at CPT, Mahomes is the most natural pairing, and I like bringing Waddle back to build around a more aggressive DEN passing script. Rice’s aDOT is super low, and they will get gadgety with him. If they do not want to put too much on Mahomes back in his first game back, short throws to Rice are an easy way to do that.
There is also leverage with Rice at CPT naked and fading Mahomes in those lineups. I do not mind that route in GPPs.
Stack Idea: Rice CPT + Patrick Mahomes + Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle $13,500
Waddle is where the CPT ownership starts to get interesting. He carries the fourth-highest projection on the slate, but his 9.2% CPT ownership comes in well below Walker, Mahomes, Nix, and Rice. At that number, I like using Waddle as a leverage CPT with Nix in the FLEX and betting DEN’s passing game accounts for most of its scoring. He may get peppered to death with targets in this offense.
Stack Idea: Waddle CPT + Bo Nix + Pat Bryant
Top FLEX Plays
Patrick Mahomes $9,600
I prefer getting my Mahomes exposure through FLEX and using the CPT multiplier on skill position players to concentrate the bet on one passing connection. That construction benefits from Rice accounting for a large share of Mahomes’ production rather than needing Mahomes to outscore his receivers. Walker CPT is where I am more comfortable leaving Mahomes out, betting KC finishes drives on the ground or with Butker. A Chiefs win does not have to mean a Mahomes ceiling game.
Bo Nix $9,400
Nix sits less than half a point behind Mahomes, making him a priority FLEX rather than simply a bring-back. I prefer putting a DEN WR at CPT and using Nix to capture the production that goes elsewhere, rather than needing him to outscore his own receivers. In Walker CPT builds, I also like Nix with one pass catcher, betting KC finishes drives on the ground while DEN accumulates points through the air. His ownership is not the reason to play him; the combinations around him are where I want to separate.
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
J.K. Dobbins $6,400
I am playing Dobbins as DEN’s lead back, not treating him like a backup because everyone is waiting for the next injury. We have already seen him handle 20 carries in a game, so a bell cow workload is not some theoretical ceiling we invented for this write-up. At $1,000 less than Harvey, I would rather buy the lead rushing role than pay more for the PPR-scam. Nearly 30% FLEX ownership means he is not sneaky, but I do not need every good play to be a leverage play.
GPP Leverage Plays
Courtland Sutton $8,000
TD-dependent play of the day. Waddle can lead Denver in targets, and Sutton can still be the better tournament play if the TDs land with him. At 4.5% CPT ownership, I am interested in that outcome rather than simply adding Sutton next to Waddle and calling the lineup different. Pairing Sutton CPT with Nix and leaving Waddle out in some builds makes the bet specific: DEN passes successfully, but Sutton captures the production the field assigned to Waddle (especially TDs).
Xavier Worthy $6,600
I do not need to fade Mahomes to bet against the most popular version of the Chiefs’ passing game. Worthy is $2,800 cheaper than Rice, letting me change that receiver exposure and put the savings elsewhere. My aggressive version is Worthy CPT with Mahomes and no Rice, betting that an explosive score swings the production toward the cheaper WR.
Tyquan Thornton $3,600
Thornton averaged 23 yards per catch last season, which is why I am buying the explosive play rather than pretending he needs a steady diet of targets. For $400 more than Bryant, he offers a different use of a similar salary slot at less than half the projected FLEX ownership. I like pairing him with Mahomes while leaving Worthy out in some builds, giving that deep TD a specific player to work against.
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Pat Bryant $3,200
This is my favorite punt play. Bryant is useful salary relief, but roughly 20% FLEX ownership means we should stop short of calling him a sleeper. I like him as the second receiver in a Nix stack, where his production contributes to the same DEN passing bet instead of functioning as an unrelated punt. That construction leaves more room for KC’s expensive players, but Bryant is not providing the ownership discount. A small amount of Bryant CPT with Nix is the genuinely aggressive version, betting on an unexpected TD distribution outcome.
DEN DST $4,800 | KC DST $4,400
DEN interests me more as a pressure bet with KC LT Josh Simmons ruled out, and I am more willing to leave Mahomes out of those builds than ask both sides of that matchup to reach their ceilings. The Chiefs fit naturally with Walker CPT, betting a lead creates more rushing opportunities for Walker and more obvious passing situations for Nix. Neither defense needs a shutout, but I want a path through sacks and TOs rather than relying entirely on a defensive TD. The leverage comes from which expensive offensive piece I leave out, not simply checking the DST box.
Lutz $5,200 | Butker $5,000
Butker has the slightly better projection and cheaper salary, while Lutz offers the ownership discount. At these prices, I want multiple field goals, not extra points from TDs I already stacked. Lutz interests me in Walker CPT builds where DEN moves the ball but loses the TD battle, while Butker fits the reverse outcome alongside Dobbins. I am willing to use both in stalled-drive builds, but not as the automatic finish to a lineup that otherwise needs a shootout.
Emmett Johnson $2,600 | Brashard Smith $1,400
Walker does not have to get hurt for Kansas City’s RB2 to matter at these prices. Johnson is listed ahead of Smith on the depth chart, but Smith requires less production to justify the salary investment. In my most aggressive builds, I would use one with Mahomes and leave Walker out, betting a few catches or a short TD land with the backup instead of the slate’s most expensive player. I would choose one per lineup rather than ask both backups to earn meaningful work.
Chalk Lineup Warning
Based on my projections and ownership, here are two of the chalkier lineups, salary considered. I recommend staying away from these builds unless you are playing cash (ew). Both equal $50,000.
Chalky McChalkface 1:
- CPT: Mahomes
- Nix
- Chiefs
- Butker
- Rice
- Kelce
Chalky McChalkface 2:
- CPT: Bryant
- Nix
- Dobbins
- Waddle
- Walker
- Rice
Final Thoughts/Game Theory Ideas
1. Do not be scared of 3-3 builds.
Our recent Showdown research showed the field using 3-3 builds around 36% of the time, compared to roughly 49% for 4-2. I am perfectly comfortable getting to balanced builds here, especially with a tight spread. Just make sure the actual six-player combination is different because 3-3 alone is not leverage.
2. Don’t Take a Likely 0 Just To Get Different
There are enough viable plays in this game that I do not want to force a zero just because he is low-owned. You can create leverage through CPT choice, 3-3 construction, DST, kickers, or an unusual combination of otherwise popular players. Sometimes the leverage is the lineup, not the individual player.
In 70% of showdown tournament winners we studied, the CPT was owned at 5% or less. Be looking in the Kelce, Sutton, Dobbins, Worthy, and Harvey range of salary at CPT so you don’t have to value hunt at sub $1,000.
3. Embrace the Ugly Parts of a 43.5 Total
This is not a slate where I automatically want six offensive skill players. Both kickers and both DSTs are firmly in play, and I am comfortable using multiple pieces from that group in the same lineup. If drives stall or this turns into a field-goal game, those constructions can jump a huge portion of the field quickly.
4. Be Intentional With the Cheap KC RB
Brashard Smith and Emmett Johnson are not projection plays; they are role bets on who handles the work behind Kenneth Walker. I would rather take a shot on one of them and use the salary to build a lineup I actually like than jam a random $200 player simply because he makes the optimizer work. The important part is not playing both together.