My 2024 “Your Guys” – Three Players I’m Avoiding in Drafts (Fantasy Football)
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Draft season is officially in full swing. If you’re like me and your next few days are loaded with fantasy drafts, here are a few names to consider leaving for your league mates. I’ve identified three players currently going in the top five rounds who I do not expect to return on their current value…or even come close. Read on to find out who these players are and why they’re going to bust this season.
Kyren Williams
I’m coming out of the gates hot with this take. Kyren has become a fantasy darling for many folks after bursting onto the scene and finishing as the RB6 last season despite playing in just 12 games. He’s going in the second round of drafts right now as the eighth RB off the board – a value if he were to pick up where he left off with last year’s torrid pace. Unfortunately for those who have already drafted him, that isn’t going to happen.
My skepticism of Kyren Williams‘ fantasy value started at the 2022 NFL Combine, where he weighed in at 194 pounds and posted a 4.65s 40-yard dash. These would be pretty impressive numbers for a high school kid, but not an NFL running back. If you look at the rest of the running backs being drafted in the top 10 (and beyond), you’ll notice a trend. Almost all of these guys weigh at least 210 pounds and run sub 4.5s 40-yard dashes.
| ADP Rank | Name | Weight (lbs) | 40 Time (sec) |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 210 | 4.48 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | 215 | 4.46 |
| 3 | Breece Hall | 217 | 4.39 |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 200 | 4.36 |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | 226 | 4.39 |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | 233 | 4.40 |
| 7 | Travis Etienne | 215 | 4.45 |
| 8 | Kyren Williams | 202 | 4.65 |
| 9 | Derrick Henry | 247 | 4.54 |
| 10 | De’Von Achane | 188 | 4.32 |
Now, every once in a while you’ll have an outlier. Sometimes a guy is so big or fast or talented that you can overlook one of these metrics. Jahmyr Gibbs, for example, is slightly undersized at around 200 pounds, but what he lacks in size he makes up for with lightning speed, clocking in at 4.36 seconds in the 40. Rarely, if ever, have we seen a running back that lacks in both the size and speed departments and consistently finishes as a top fantasy performer.
“So, if Kyren is so slow and undersized, how was he so good last year?” – the voice of public opinion asks.
That, my friends, is a bit of a mystery, but I think it comes down to a couple of factors:
- The Rams had no other options at running back – Kyren’s 82% snap share led the NFL, ahead of Christian McCaffrey
- Touchdown efficiency – 15 touchdowns in 12 games
- Head Coach Sean McVay – admittedly an offensive mastermind who gets the most out of his players
One of these things is not changing. Sean McVay will be calling the shots for an offense that projects to be near the top of the league again. What is changing is that the Rams brought in a running back in Blake Corum who they drafted with third-round capital and profiles as more of a workhorse than Williams. While McVay has shown a willingness to use a bell cow running back at times (Todd Gurley from 2017-2019), he’s also shown a propensity to go with a committee approach when it suits his roster.
Williams’ breakout last season inspired me to look for a comparison – a late-round draft pick with below-average size and speed who broke out in a massive way. The player I came up with was Devonta Freeman, who weighed in at 206 pounds and ran a 4.58s 40-yard dash – both slightly better than Kyren. Freeman finished as the RB6 as a rookie in 2016, and then slowly faded into fantasy oblivion, never finishing higher than RB14 the rest of his career. Look for Kyren Williams’ career to follow a similar arc, and avoid him in drafts this season.
Stefon Diggs
This take is a little less spicy. Despite being a Vikings fan, I don’t have quite the same level of vendetta with Stefon Diggs as I do with undersized, slow running backs. What this take really boils down to is that I don’t think Diggs is as great as he used to be, and furthermore, I think he’s the third-best WR on his own team.
Diggs turned 30 last season, and it showed. We’ve seen the age-30 dropoff with other great wide receivers – Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and AJ Green, to name a few – but none quite as pronounced as what Stefon Diggs did last season for Buffalo. Diggs turned 30 on November 29th, which fell between Weeks 12 and 13. In the 12 games prior to his birthday, he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, and in the seven games after his birthday (including playoffs) he averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game. If that doesn’t scream age cliff I don’t know what does!
Birthday jokes aside, Diggs didn’t look quite like his old self down the stretch last season. Buffalo subsequently moved on from him, and they had to package a couple of late-round picks with him just to get a second-round pick back from Houston. As far as landing spots go, it doesn’t look too bad to be paired with another young star quarterback in CJ Stroud. I can understand the temptation for fantasy managers to envision Houston plugging in a superstar as their new number-one WR in a high-flying offense. But Nico Collins and Tank Dell proved last season that they can get along just fine as 1A and 1B in this offense, and if Diggs is truly past the age cliff as last year’s numbers seem to suggest, he’s going to have a hard time carving out a significant role between the two up-and-coming studs in Houston.
Michael Pittman Jr.
As a proud owner of a Pitty City T-shirt, this one brings me some pain to write. Pittman is coming off a strong 2023 campaign which saw him finish as the WR15, buoyed by a career-high 156 targets, most of which came from backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. This year, Minshew is in Las Vegas, and second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is healthy again and set to be the full-time starter. The sample size of Pittman playing with Richardson last year is small, but what we know about Richardson is that he likes to pull it down and run. Pittman is currently being drafted in the fifth round as the 23rd WR off the board. The truth is I don’t believe Pittman has the same upside as other players going in this range of drafts.
With fewer targets to go around, I think Pittman might currently be getting drafted at or near his ceiling, while other players in this range (Malik Nabers, DK Metcalf, Tank Dell) possess top-10 upside. Pittman is still a fine pick as a WR2, but consider other options if you’re looking for a potential breakout this season.
Comments
Hey, Joel! First of all, I’m really glad you are reading and engaging.! Thank you for supporting the site! You are a really important person to all of us!
I probably want to be perceived more delicate than this probably sounds, because I value you, but if all you are looking for is past production, why are you reading an off-season fantasy article at all? Why wouldn’t you just go off of last year’s scoring In a table and call it a day?
But of course, you recognize we can get indicators production is in danger of collapse based on trends in underlining statistics and by paying attention to the signals teams are giving us.
Ask any analyst or dedicated sanity player. Williams is definitively one of the most unique and confounding players in this player pool, as he has a wide range of outcomes, and there is still a significant investment to make if you want him, even if we are talking about a second round pick. I think it’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out.
If you expect him to be the same guy, he was last year, obviously he is a value. By all means, take him! That’s why he’s your guy. Lol. Parker brings up some really good points, and there is certainly a reason to be concerned.
I more or less fade Williams here for many of the same reasons and because I would rather take more certain bets in this part of the draft (probably at WR), but it’s certainly valid to have your perspective. I encourage you to follow your heart. There is absolutely a chance you will be right in the end!
Devonta Freeman’s rookie year was 2014, not 2016. In 2015 he was the RB#1 in fantasy and followed that up with another fantastic year in 2016 finishing as the RB#6, despite everyone fading him in drafts saying he would bust because of his size, TD efficiency, unable to repeat, etc.
If Kyren was guaranteed to repeat exactly what he did last year, he’d be worthy of a top 5 overall pick, but he is slipping to the back of the first round and even into the 2nd round. The risk is baked into his ADP. I anticipate some regression but with where he is being drafted, I’ll still take that. There’s also the upside that he is as good as last year. The Rams should be in scoring position plenty, and he has proven he can score from the goal line.
It’s comparable to Devonta Freeman exploding in 2015 then regressing a bit in 2016 but still being a great pick with where he went in drafts that year (2nd round).
Look into the numbers and you’ll see Pittman was on pace for 180+ targets and 120+ receptions if Richardson had all the snaps in 2023. The other Indy WRs may suffer with Richardson, but not the #1 target and first read in many plays.
“Freeman finished as the RB6 as a rookie in 2016, and then slowly faded into fantasy oblivion, never finishing higher than RB14 the rest of his career.”
This statement is incorrect. Freeman was not a rookie in 2016. That was his third year.
He went for 1600/14td in 2015. And followed it up with 1540/13td in 2016
i think these are well thought out takes.
You can clearly see the stupidity in this world. When you have clowns thinking a person doesn’t know or watch football because their favorite team hasn’t won a super bowl. Lmfao. What a bunch of morons. Like the writer here has any control or anything to do with that. While I don’t agree with all the takes by this writer, he has proven he isn’t as dumb as some of the ass clowns who commented. They probably are the same one’s who think games are only won by one player too.
If Williams stays healthy he’ll be fine. Diggs will lose targets. Pittman is praying Richardson improves his accuracy.
So because you know the history of teams who lose and you’re losing teams history which has nothing to do with knowing football and specifically watching football for fantasy football purposes, means you know football enough to tell us Michael Pittman and Kyren Williams are going to be bust this year? I am very lost to your response and your take I’m assuming you don’t watch football at all Michael Pittman is an insanely phenomenal route runner with very high upside and he’s young Kyren is in a Sean McVay offense who is thriving to make another super bowl appearance before Matthew Stafford retires. I would agree you’re maybe one year early on this take and take Michael Pittman off. I do however agree with diggs take but not fully. Diggs will thrive in Houston but he is starting to slow down however I think he just wanted out of Buffalo We will see this year.
I actually thought the Kyren domination explanation was satire. Then I realized you were serious.
Kyren proved he can handle a workhorse RB load while putting up elite numbers, but they only used him because they had no other option? That’s like saying we should fade on Taylor because trey sermon is in town. If you’re a workhorse back, you will be used like a workhorse back. Put away the Stat sheets and look at production.
Theres a reason so many draft picks miss. Numbers don’t tell the whole story. Production tells the story.
NutzD33P….10 teams who lucked into a super bowl? And as a viking fan you think you know football? What you really should be saying is your team is just good enough until it’s time to win it all.
The Vikings have an all-time overall record of 523–435–11 , the highest regular season and combined winning percentage among NFL franchises who have not won a Super Bowl, in addition the most playoff runs, division titles, and (tied with the Buffalo Bills) Super Bowl appearances.
They also have the most conference championship appearances of non-winning Super Bowl teams, with them being one of four (along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams) to appear in a conference championship every decade since the 1970s.
There are 13 teams who have not won a Superbowl. There are at least 10 teams who lucked into one. The overwhelming majority of superbowl winning teams have a far worse liftime winning percentage than the Vikings. So please, spare us. We know football better than most.
I have a hard time trusting anyone about football, fantasy or real, from anyone that’s a Vikings fan.